New Zealand v Ireland - teams and prediction

Ireland goes into the second Test against New Zealand in Dunedin on Saturday positive they have learnt the lessons of an opening defeat in the three-match series.

That confidence is based on their strong start and finish to the first Test at Auckland which they lost 42-19 to trail 0-1 in the three-match series.

Ireland had the All Blacks under pressure for the first 20 minutes and matched New Zealand 14-all in a second half in which the visitors were held up over the goalline on at least three occasions.

The match slipped away from them in the middle period when the All Blacks scored four of their six tries.

Coach Andy Farrell and his assistants see in that period the key to an Irish resurgence which might reverse the first-Test outcome and level the series.

Ireland guarded possession closely and won the territorial contest in the first 20 minutes.

The game-changing moment came when the All Blacks scored a breakout try through wing Sevu Reece, who pounced on a loose Irish pass.

Farrell realises if Ireland can eliminate that kind of careless error, they likely will be able to keep pressure on New Zealand for a longer period.

They forced New Zealand to make almost 200 tackles last weekend, testing their defence, but were less clinical with their opportunities than New Zealand.

“To be honest the lads are in a good place now,” Farrell said.

“You would expect them to be but even earlier in the week, there is a bit of doubt creeping in when you don’t know the answers.

“They do know the answers.

“They know the access they gave the All Blacks and they understand that you cannot do that because they know first-hand that they will be behind your own posts.”

The other key incident which led to a change of momentum in the first Test came when Ireland lost captain Johnny Sexton to a head injury.

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Sexton left the field in the 30th minute and didn’t return.

In his absence, Ireland took time to recover their composure and pattern, but Sexton has been named in the No.10 jersey.

Both teams have made only one personnel change to their starting line-up for Saturday’s match.

Farrell has recalled Australia-born wing Mack Hansen, who replaces Keith Earls after missing the first Test because of COVID-19.

New Zealand coach Ian Foster has moved Scott Barrett from blindside flank to lock to replace Sam Whitelock, who has been diagnosed with a delayed onset concussion.

Dalton Papalii replaces Barrett in the back row.

Foster believes a consistent selection approach will help the All Blacks secure the series in two matches.

“We felt making too many changes right now would take us back a cog,” Foster said.

“[Ireland] are going to be desperate to keep the series alive, so we won’t be surprised that we’re going to have to lift again.”

Players to watch

For New Zealand: Call this the ‘concussion Test’ if you will. Coach Ian Foster brought in flank Dalton Papalii as his only change. Papalii replaces veteran lock Sam Whitelock – who failed his HIA (concussion tests) – with Scott Barrett moving to the second row from the flank. Whitelock was ruled out after suffering delayed symptoms of concussion. Both Papalii and Barrett will have key roles to play. Papalii brings with him a physical edge on defence. Barrett, while also being ‘physical’ is a player that lives on the edge and will be scrutinised after escaping a card for what appeared a clear dangerous, shoulder charge into the neck and head area of an opponent. Cards can change the game in an instant.

For Ireland: The spotlight is also on ‘concussion’ for Ireland. However, in their case, the player in question, captain Johnny Sexton, has been cleared and named to face New Zealand. It has kicked off a storm that continues to rage in the build-up to the Test. Given his history of head injuries, Sexton will also be closely monitored. There is just one change from the fifteen that started in the first Test loss, with right wing Mack Hansen having shaken off COVID to replace Keith Earls. Peter O’Mahony, who took over the captaincy when Sexton departed last week, is another key player in the Irish cause. There are also two changes on the bench, with hooker Rob Herring back after a calf problem to replace Dave Heffernan and prop Finlay Bealham returning from COVID in place of Tom O’Toole.

Head to head

Prediction

@rugby365com: New Zealand by 12 points

Teams

New Zealand: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Quinn Tupeaa, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (captain), 6 Dalton Papalii, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Ofa Tuungafasi, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 George Bower.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukeiaho, 17 Aidan Ross, 18 Angus Ta’avao, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Pita Gus Sowakula, 21 Folau Fakatava, 22 Richie Mo’unga, 23 Will Jordan.

Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 James Lowe, 10 Johnny Sexton (captain), 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 James Ryan, 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Finlay Bealham, 18 Cian Healy, 19 Kieran Treadwell, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Joey Carbery, 23 Bundee Aki.

Date: Saturday, July 9
Venue: Otago Stadium, Dunedin
Kick-off: 19.05 (08.05 UK & Ireland time; 07.05 GMT)
Expected weather: It is an indoor stadium, with a hard and fast surface. The conditions won’t have an impact – unless you are unfamiliar with playing indoors.
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Karl Dickson (England), Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: Tom Foley (England)