Super Rugby Pacific, Round four - Teams and Predictions

MAKE OR BREAK: The stakes keep getting higher in Super Rugby Pacific with round four set to bring more grudge matches, pivotal clashes, and the start of new rivalries.

The action kicks off on Friday with a re-match of last year’s trans-Tasman final when the Blues host the Highlanders at Eden Park. The men from the deep south have dropped their first three games and will be desperate to upset the Blues to get their season on track

Later on Friday, the second-placed Brumbies travel to AAMI Park to face a Rebels side determined to pick up their first win of the season.

Saturday sees Fijian Drua take on the Queensland Reds at Suncorp Stadium. The Drua will be hoping to make it back-to-back wins after taking out the Rebels last week while Moana Pasifika will be looking to build on their promising debut game against the Crusaders.

Also on Saturday, competition leaders the Crusaders square off with the Chiefs in a tantalizing match up at Orangetheory Stadium in Christchurch.

Round four is finished on Sunday. The NSW Waratahs play host to the Western Force in a clash that will see the winner sitting pretty in the playoff zone.

Meanwhile, Moana Pasifika’s debut Super Rugby season was thrown into further disarray Thursday as their third match in four weeks was postponed because of Covid, this time an outbreak in an opposing team.

Moana’s first two matches were called off after the virus was detected among a number of their players and they finally made a belated competition bow last week in a 33-12 loss to Canterbury Crusaders.

But New Zealand Rugby (NZR) said the Auckland-based team would be sidelined again this weekend because their opponents Wellington Hurricanes had so many positive cases they could not field a side.

“Every effort was made to play this match, but despite looking at replacement player options the number of players affected by Covid was simply too great to overcome,” NZR general manager of professional rugby Chris Lendrum said.

After containing coronavirus for much of the pandemic, New Zealand is experiencing a wave of Omicron-variant infections, with more than 21,000 new cases reported on Thursday.

“I guess it shows how widely Covid is affecting people right now,” Hurricanes chief executive Avan Lee said.

NZR said Moana’s match against the Hurricanes would be rescheduled, along with the other postponed fixtures against Auckland Blues and Waikato Chiefs.

Moana, made up largely of players from Samoa and Tonga, were introduced with the Fijian Drua to a revamped Super Rugby competition this year in a bid to give Pacific island players professional opportunities close to home.

Round four teams and predictions below!

Friday, March 11

Blues v Highlanders
(North Harbour Stadium, Albany – Kick-off: 19.05; 06.05 GMT)

The Blues have won four of their last five Super Rugby games against the Highlanders (L1), as many as they had won in their 15 meetings prior (W4, L11); the Blues picked up a 23-15 win in their last game against the Highlanders – the final of the 2021 Super Rugby Trans-Tasman campaign.

The Highlanders haven’t won away to the Blues in Super Rugby since a 34-16 win in Round 10 of the 2018 season; they have lost four consecutive away games to the Auckland side since then.

The Blues have won eight of their last nine Super Rugby games (L1), including a two-point win over the Chiefs (24-22) in Round 3 of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign; their only defeat in that span came by just a single point against the Hurricanes (33-32) earlier this season.

The Highlanders have lost their last four games in succession in Super Rugby, not scoring 20 points in a game even once in that term; the last time they lost more in succession in Super Rugby competitions was a five-game stretch from March to April in 2019.

The Highlanders have won only three of their last 16 away games against New Zealand opponents in Super Rugby (L13) and have lost their last four such fixtures in succession.

The Blues (70) and Highlanders (67) have crossed the gainline the most and third-most times per game respectively of any teams in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign, with the Crusaders (68) ranking second in that category.

The Highlanders (8,992) are eight points shy of becoming the seventh team to score 9,000 points in Super Rugby history; only once in Super Rugby have they scored fewer than eight points in a game against the Blues (lost 26-6 in Round 10, 2009).

The Blues have scored 43% of their tries from possession begun with a turnover won, the highest rate of any team to have played more than one game this season, while the Highlanders have conceded 20% of their total tries after their opponents won a turnover.

Mark Telea (Blues) has scored a try in four of his last five Super Rugby games, including one try in his last game against the Highlanders.

Thomas Umaga-Jensen (Highlanders) has beaten 6.4 defenders per 80 minutes in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any player to have played more than 80 minutes in total this campaign.

Prediction

@rugby365com: Blues by three points.

Teams:

Blues: 15 Stephen Perofeta, 14 Mark Telea, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Bryce Heem, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Dalton Papalii (captain), 6 Taine Plumtree, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Kurt Eklund, 1 Alex Hodgman
Replacements: 16 Soane Vikena, 17 Ofa Tuungafasi, 18 Marcel Renata, 19 James Tucker, 20 Adrian Choat, 21 Sam Nock, 22 Tanielu Tele’a, 23 Zarn Sullivan

Highlanders: 15 Connor Garden-Bachop, 14 Liam Coombes-Fabling, 13 Scott Gregory, 12 Thomas Umaga-Jensen, 11 Mosese Dawai, 10 Mitch Hunt, 9 Aaron Smith (captain), 8 Marino Miakele Tu’u, 7 Gareth Evans, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Josh Dickson, 4 Manaaki Selby-Rickit, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Ethan De Groot
Replacements: 16 Rhys Marshall, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Josh Hohneck, 19 Bryn Evans, 20 Hugh Renton, 21 Folau Fakatava, 22 Marty Banks, 23 Ngatungane Punivai

Referee: Ben O’Keeffe
Assistant referees: Paul Williams & Stu Curran
TMO: Shane McDermott

Melbourne Rebels v Brumbies
(AAMI Park, Melbourne – Kick-off: 19.45; 08.45 GMT)

The Brumbies have won four of their last five Super Rugby games against the Melbourne Rebels (L1), including their last two on the bounce; the last and only time they won more in succession against the Rebels was a five-game streak from June 2011 to June 2013.

The Melbourne Rebels have won three of their last four games when hosting the Brumbies in Super Rugby competitions (L1); although, they were defeated 26-20 in their last such fixture (April 18, 2021).

The Melbourne Rebels have lost their last eight consecutive games in Super Rugby competitions; the last and only previous time they lost more in succession was a 12-game stretch from April 2011 to March 2012 which included a defeat to the Brumbies.

The Brumbies will be looking to open a Super Rugby campaign with four straight wins for just the second time since the beginning of 2014, having also won four in succession to begin the 2020 Super Rugby AU season.

The Brumbies have won 10 of their last 13 Super Rugby games against Australian opponents (L3) with all three defeats in that span coming by margins of no greater than three points.

The Brumbies (28) have won more turnovers than any other team in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season while no team has won fewer than the Melbourne Rebels (9).

The Brumbies have made 11.3 entries per game into the opposition 22m zone this Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition and four per game more than the Melbourne Rebels (7.3).

Rob Valetini (Brumbies) has crossed for a try in each of his last two Super Rugby games and will be looking to score a try in three consecutive games for the first time.

Reece Hodge (Melbourne Rebels) has scored five tries in his five Super Rugby home games against the Brumbies. he’s made 33 carries in that span for 86 metres gained and four line breaks.

Tom Banks (Brumbies) has made four line breaks this Super Rugby Pacific campaign, more than any other player in the competition; Banks has crossed for a try in two of his last four Super Rugby games against the Melbourne Rebels.

Prediction

@rugby365com:  Brumbies by three points.

Teams:

Rebels: 15 Reece Hodge, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Lukas Ripley, 12 Ray Nu’u, 11 Glen Vaihu, 10 Matt To’omua, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Tamati Ioane, 7 Brad Wilkin, 6 Michael Wells (captain), 5 Josh Canham,4 Matt Philip, 3 Cabous Eloff, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cameron Orr
Replacements:16 Efi Ma’afu, 17 Isaac Aedo Kailea, 18 Rhys Van Nek, 19 Ross Haylett-Petty, 20 Richard Hardwick, 21 Moses Sorovi, 22 Carter Gordon, 23 Young Tonumaipea

Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Tom Wright, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Jesse Mogg, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Jahrome Brown, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Tom Hooper, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Connal McInerney, 1 Scott Sio
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 James Slipper, 18 Sefo Kautai, 19 Ed Kennedy, 20 Luke Reimer, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Rod Iona, 23 Chris Feauai-Sautia

Referee: Graham Cooper
Assistant referees: Nic Berry & James Quinn
TMO: Brett Cronan

*Article continues below…

Saturday, March 12

Hurricanes v Moana Pasifika (Postponed)

Crusaders v Chiefs
(Orangetheory Stadium, Christchurch – Kick-off: 19.05; 06.05 GMT)

The Crusaders have won nine of their last 12 Super Rugby games against the Chiefs (L3), including four of five games against them since the beginning of the 2020 Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign.

The Chiefs’ last away win to the Crusaders in Super Rugby came in the opening round of the 2016 campaign (27-21), with the Chiefs losing six consecutive such fixtures since then.

The Crusaders have won their last 10 consecutive games in Super Rugby competitions, winning by an average margin of 18 points per game in that term; however, their last defeat came at the hands of the Chiefs in Round 8 of the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa competition (26-25).

The Chiefs have lost eight of their last 10 Super Rugby games away from home against New Zealand opposition (W2), including their last three on the bounce; six of those 10 games were decided by single digit margins on the day.

The NSW Waratahs (55 percent) are the only team to have had a higher proportion of possession than the Crusaders (53 percent) and Chiefs (52 percent) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign; in fact, the Crusaders’ 118 carries per game are the most of any team.

The Chiefs have allowed their opposition just six entries into their 22m zone per game this Super Rugby Pacific season, the fewest of any team in the competition.

The Crusaders have scored six tries in the final quarter of games this Super Rugby Pacific season, the second-most of any team in the competition and six more than the Chiefs – who are the only team yet to score a try in this period.

The Crusaders’ 90 percent lineout success rate is the highest of any team in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season and 10 percentage points higher than the Chiefs (80%).
Will Jordan (Crusaders) has scored eight tries in his seven Super Rugby games against the Chiefs, crossing for at least one try in each of his last five games against them.

Etene Nanai-Seturo (Chiefs) has crossed for a try in three of his last five away games for the Chiefs in Super Rugby, including one try in Round 3 of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific.

Prediction

@rugby365com: Crusaders by 10 points.

Teams:

Crusaders: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Braydon Ennor, 12 David Havili, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Pablo Matera, 7 Tom Christie, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 George Bower, 18 Tamaiti Williams, 19 Mitch Dunshea, 20 Cullen Grace, 21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 22 Fergus Burke, 23 George Bridge

Chiefs: 15 Emoni Narawa, 14 Shaun Stevenson, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Etene Nanai-Seturo, 10 Bryn Gatland, 9 Xavier Roe, 8 Pita Gus Sowakula, 7 Sam Cane (captain), 6 Kaylum Boshier, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Tupou Vaa’i, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Aidan Ross
Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 George Dyer, 19 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 20 Tom Florence/Laghlan McWhannell, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Rivez Reihana, 23 Rameka Poihipi

Referee: Brendon Pickerill
Assistant referees: Angus Mabey & Dan Waenga
TMO: Glenn Newman

Queensland Reds v Fijian Drua
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 18.45; 08.45 GMT)

The Queensland Reds will face the Fijian Drua for the first time in Super Rugby; the Reds have won five of their last six Super Rugby games when they’ve faced a team for the first time, losing only to the Jaguares in 2017 (22-8) in that time.

The Queensland Reds have won their first three games of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign and will be looking to open a Super Rugby season with four straight wins for just the second time in the history of the tournament after winning their first seven games of the 2021 Super Rugby AU season.

The Queensland Reds have lost three of their last five Super Rugby games at home when hosting non-Australian sides (W2) and will be looking to avoid back-to-back defeats in such fixtures for the first time since April 2017 after a 31-24 defeat to the Blues in their most recent such game (June 2021).

The Fijian Drua picked up their first Super Rugby win in Round 3, defeating the Melbourne Rebels 31-26; they have lost both of their games as the away team on the day, each by a margin of 30 points or more.

No team has conceded more penalties within their own 22m zone this Super Rugby Pacific season than the Queensland Reds (12); the Fijian Drua have conceded nine penalties in this part of the field.

The Fijian Drua (90 percet) have the second-highest goal success rate from place kicks in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, 11 percentage points higher than the Queensland Reds (79 percent).

The Fijian Drua have made 10.7 entries into the opposition 22m zone per game this Super Rugby Pacific season, the second-most of any team; however, no team has scored fewer points per entry into the opposition 22m zone than the Fijian Drua (1.1).

Jock Campbell (Queensland Reds) has scored one try in three of his last five games in Super Rugby when playing at fullback on the day , including tries in Rounds 1 and 3 of the current Super Rugby Pacific season.

Harry Wilson (Queensland Reds) has crossed the gainline on a carry 33 times in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific competition, the most of any player in the competition and 11 more than second-ranked Ardie Savea (22) of the Hurricanes.

Vinaya Habosi (Fijian Drua) has gained 219 metres in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific competition, more than any other player in the competition.

Prediction

@rugby365com: Reds by five points.

Teams:

Reds: 15 Jordan Petaia, 14 Jock Campbell, 13 Hunter Paisami, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Josh Flook, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Kalani Thomas, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight (captain), 6 Seru Uru, 5 Angus Blyth, 4 Ryan Smith, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Josh Nasser, 1 Harry Hoopert
Replacements: 16 Matt Faessler, 17 Feao Fotuaika, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Connor Vest, 20 Tuiana Taii Tualima, 21 Spencer Jeans, 22 Lawson Creighton, 23 Mac Grealy

Fijian Drua: 15 Baden Kerr, 14 Selesitino Ravutaumada, 13 Apisalome Vota, 12 Kalaveti Ravouvou, 11 Vinaya Habosi, 10 Teti Tela, 9 Peni Matawalu, 8 Te Ahiwaru Cirikidaveta, 7 Vilive Miramira, 6 Meli Derenalagi (captan), 5 Ratu Rotuisolia, 4 Isoa Nasilasila, 3 Samuela Tawake, 2 Mesulame Dolokoto, 1 Kaliopasi Uluilakepa
Replacements: 16 Zuriel Togiatama, 17 Jone Koroiduadua, 18 Manasa Saulo, 19 Sorovakatini Tuifagalele, 20 Joseva Tamani, 21 Frank Lomani, 22 Jona Mataiciwa, 23 Onisi Ratave

Referee: Jordan Way
Assistant referees: Nic Berry & Reuben Keane
TMO: Brett Cronan

Sunday, March 13

Waratahs v Western Force
(Leichhardt Stadium, Sydney – Kick-off: 14.00; 03.00 GMT)

The Western Force have won six of their last 10 Super Rugby games against the NSW Waratahs (L4), including their last two on the bounce; they had won only two of all their 12 meetings prior to that 10-game period (D1, L9).

The NSW Waratahs’ last win against an Australian opponent in Super Rugby came in Round 9 of the 2020 Super Rugby AU campaign when they defeated the Melbourne Rebels 38-32; the Waratahs have lost 10 consecutive Australian derbies since then.

The Western Force will be looking to log back-to-back away wins in Super Rugby for the first time since May 2017 after securing a 28-3 win over the Melbourne Rebels in their last away game in the competition (Round 2, Super Rugby Pacific).

The Western Force have won four of their last six regular season games against Australian opposition in Super Rugby (L2) after having won only once in their 13 such games prior (L12).

The NSW Waratahs have kicked to exit their 22m zone 30 times in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition and 11 more times than the Western Force (19).

The NSW Waratahs have beaten 22 defenders per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the third-most of any team in the competition and more than any other Australian side.

The Western Force have conceded just 10 penalties per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the fewest of any Australian side and four per game fewer than the NSW Waratahs (14) who have conceded more per game than any other team.

The Western Force have beaten 21 defenders in the 71st minute or later in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the joint-most of any team in the competition and three times as many as the NSW Waratahs (7).

Will Harris (NSW Waratahs) has scored one try in each of his last three games in Super Rugby after having scored just two tries in all his 13 games in the competition prior.

Manasa Mataele (Western Force) has made more carries (10), gained more metres (134), and beaten more defenders (7) from within his own team’s 22m zone this Super Rugby Pacific season than any other player.

Prediction

@rugby365com:  Waratahs by seven points.

Teams:

Waratahs: 15 Will Harrison, 14 Dylan Pietsch, 13 Izaia Perese, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 Alex Newsome, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Jake Gordon (captain), 8 Will Harris, 7 Charlie Gamble, 6 Hugh Sinclair, 5 Max Douglas, 4 Jed Holloway, 3 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 2 Dave Porecki, 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 Tom Horton/Mahe Vailanu, 17 Te Tera Faulkner, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Jeremy Williams/Geoff Cridge, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Carlo Tizzano, 22 Jack Grant, 23 Mark Nawaqanitawase

Western Force: 15 Jake Strachan, 14 Toni Pulu, 13 Kyle Godwin, 12 Bayley Kuenzle, 11 Manasa Mataele, 10 Reesjan Pasitoa, 9 Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, 8 Tim Anstee, 7 Ollie Callan, 6 Fergus Lee-Warner, 5 Izack Rodda, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Feleti Kaitu’u, 1 Tom Robertson
Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Harry Lloyd, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 Jackson Pugh, 20 Brynard Stander, 21 Ian Prior, 22 Jake McIntyre, 23 Richard Kahui

Referee: Damon Murphy
Assistant referees: Graham Cooper & Matt Kellahan
TMO: James Leckie

Source: AFP & @SuperRugby

*Statistical information provided by Opta Data