Super Rugby Aotearoa, Final - Teams and Predictions
CRUSADERS V CHIEFS: The last time the Chiefs played the Crusaders, Chiefs coach Clayton McMillan made the somewhat surprising call to start pocket-rocket Damian McKenzie at flyhalf.
On the back of some excellent shifts in that role in the latter stages of matches, McMillan decided that regular fullback McKenzie was the man to guide the Chiefs around the park right from the get-go, and the All Blacks utility helped the Chiefs fight out a narrow 26-25 victory in Hamilton.
McKenzie was returned to his customary No.15 jersey in the subsequent match, however, with Bryn Gatland elevated from the bench to start at flyhalf. That’s a combination that’s now been retained for the ultimate match of the Super Rugby Aotearoa season against the Crusaders in Christchurch, despite the success the Chiefs had last time they faced up to the Crusaders with McKenzie at 10.
It’s the same horses for courses approach that the interim coach has taken throughout the year, with McMillan suggesting that the Crusaders of now are not the same team they were earlier in the season, while the wintery conditions in Christchurch will also force a shift in tactics from the Chiefs.
“There’s pros and cons, isn’t there?” McMillan said of the shift. “He’s going to do a great job wherever we put him. He’s proved that.
“We’re just anticipating that down in Christchurch it’s a little bit more in the winter months now. It’ll be dewy, it’ll be cold. Potential for rain. So, the tactical battle is going to be really important. Having both Bryn and Damo [Damian McKenzie] there, I think serves us well in that regard.
“Equally I think that the Crusaders are going to kick a lot more than what they have. We saw them sort of transition to that against the Blues last week and Damo’s by far and away the best man under the ball. Really composed and brave so there’s a little bit of that in the selection as well.
“We’re playing slightly different. They’re playing slightly different.”
While it’s not a huge surprise to see McKenzie wearing his favoured No.15 jersey, Gatland’s return to the flyhalf role late in the season may have raised a few eyebrows.
After confident displays in the opening two matches of the season – but two matches that saw the Chiefs extend their ongoing losing streak – Gatland was dropped in favour of Bay of Plenty 22-year-old Kaleb Trask.
Trask took a knock partway through the campaign, however, and after three runs at No.10 on the trot, his only action since the Chiefs’ win over the Highlanders in Round Seven came in last weekend’s dead-rubber game against the Blues.
Trask played at fullback in that fixture and while McMillan suggested that he had the opportunity to force his way back into the team for the Final, he didn’t do enough to warrant selection ahead of Gatland or Chase Tiatia in the matchday 23.
“We were looking hard at Kaleb last week in the Blues game,” McMillan said. “It was his opportunity to sort of put his best foot forward as a fullback to see what that looked like.
“He had some good moments and some not so good ones and Bryn played better. That’s one of the reasons why he missed out this week.
“He’s a young man, he’s going to get plenty more opportunities moving forward. He’s accepted the reasons why he’s not playing and he’s been outstanding in helping prepare the other two as best as he can this week.”
With Tiatia likely to take over at fullback at some stage during the second half of Saturday’s match, McKenzie will almost certainly slot in at first receiver.
If the Chiefs are to have any chance of securing a victory over the home team, who have not lost a play-off match in Christchurch in 24 fixtures, Gatland and McKenzie will both need to be in top form.
Perhaps that will mean McKenzie needs to step up in the dying moments of the game, as he has on multiple occasions already this year, and slot the winning points.
Stats that matter
- The Chiefs will be looking to win multiple Super Rugby games in a year against the Crusaders for the first time since 2016 after picking up a 26-25 victory when they met in Round Eight of the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign.
- Each of the three previous Super Rugby post-season encounters between the Crusaders and Chiefs have been won by the hosts on the day, with the Chiefs picking up two wins in that span (L1).
- The Crusaders have won all 24 of their previous Super Rugby finals games when playing as hosts on the day, including all six finals they’ve previously hosted.
- The Chiefs have won only two of their last eight finals games in Super Rugby (L6) and have not won a post-season fixture against a fellow New Zealand opponent in the competition since a semifinal success against the Crusaders in 2013 (20-19).
- The Chiefs have won two of their last three away games in Super Rugby Aotearoa (L1) after having lost all five of their away games in the all-New Zealand competition prior.
- The Crusaders have won 18 turnovers within their own 22m zone this Super Rugby Aotearoa season, the most of any team in the competition and twice as many as they have conceded in that same region.
- The Chiefs have made 30 offloads in the opposition 22m zone this Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign, the most of any team in the competition and eight more than the Crusaders.
- Codie Taylor (Crusaders) has scored seven tries in eight appearances this Super Rugby Aotearoa season, the most of any player and as many as he had scored in his 34 Super Rugby appearances prior.
- Will Jordan (Crusaders) has made 10m per carry from his 60 carries in the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign, the most of any player to have made at least 10 carries this season.
- Crusaders’ Richie Mo’unga (81 percent – 34/42) and Chiefs’ Damian McKenzie (80 percent – 33/41) are the only players to have attempted more than five goal kicks this season in Super Rugby Aotearoa and maintained a success rate of 80 percent or higher.
Prediction
@rugby365com: Crusaders by five points.
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 12 David Havili, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Mitchell Drummond, 8 Cullen Grace, 7 Tom Sanders, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 George Bower.
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Oliver Jager, 19 Mitchell Dunshea, 20 Whetukamokamo Douglas, 21 Bryn Hall, 22 Dallas McLeod, 23 Braydon Ennor.
Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Jonah Lowe, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Etene Nanai-Seturo, 10 Bryn Gatland, 9 Brad Weber, 8 Luke Jacobson, 7 Lachlan Boshier, 6 Pita Gus Sowakula, 5 Mitchell Brown, 4 Tupou Vaa’i, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Aidan Ross.
Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 Sione Mafileo, 19 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 20 Zane Kapeli, 21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 22 Rameka Poihipi, 23 Chase Tiatia.
Date: Saturday, May 8
Venue: Addington Showgrounds, Christchurch
Kick-off: 19.05 (07.05 GMT)
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe
Assistant referees: James Doleman, Paul Williams
TMO: Brendon Pickerill
Source: Tom Vinicombe & SANZAAR
Statistical information: Stats Perform
