Super Rugby Round Three: Preview, part one - teams and predictions
TRANS-TASMAN FACE-OFF: We start this round off with a couple of games between teams from Australasian rivals New Zealand and Australia.
It starts with an encounter between a Hurricanes team seemingly in decline and a Brumbies team on the rise.
The Palmerston North Showgrounds is the venue for this contest, which is anything but a foregone conclusion.
That is followed by another Trans-Tasman battle – a refreshed Rebels team, coming off a bye, against the Highlanders coming off back-to-back wins.
We look at the Friday matches!
Friday, March 1:
Hurricanes v Brumbies
(Palmerston North Showgrounds, Palmerston North – Kick-off: 19.35; 06.35 GMT)
FOLLOW IT LIVE: Hurricanes v Brumbies
John Plumtree’s start as Hurricanes head coach has been less than auspicious.
It started with a fortuitous one-point (20-19) win over the Waratahs, when Bernard Foley missed a sitter in Sydney that could have won the game.
And it all came crashing down in Christchurch last week when the Crusaders cruised past them for a 38-22 win.
The word “disappointed” has been bandied about a lot this week.
Plumtree said the squad was ‘desperate’ to put in a better performance than the one against the Crusaders.
“We want to improve a lot of aspects of our play and hopefully we can do that in front of what will be a great crowd in Palmerston North,” the coach said.
“We were really impressed with the performance the Brumbies put out last week,” he said of the Aussies team’s 54-17 demolition of the Chiefs in Canberra.
“We know the scale of the task ahead of us, but it’s a great challenge for the squad.”
It is not a surprise that All Black Beauden Barrett is in the starting XV.
Barrett must bring the leadership, experienced and calm head that lacked last week.
“Apart from the exciting stuff that Beaudy [Barrett] can bring, we’ve got to do the simple things around him – give him a bit of space and let him and the other boys have a bit of fun,” assistant coach Jason Holland said.
* Continue reading below …
The Brumbies have their own ‘ace up the sleeve’ in the form of super scavenger David Pocock.
Pocock missed last week’s win over the Chiefs after suffering a concussion in the Brumbies’ first game.
“Poey is a world-class player and the turnovers he can bring helps us as a backline, trying to attack unstructured defences,” Brumbies back Tom Banks said.
“That’s what we try and do and he’s the best at getting turnovers.”
Beaten in round one by Melbourne Rebels, the Brumbies are keeping a lid on the hype generated by their spectacular performance last weekend.
“We spoke about that, everyone gets around you on a win,” Brumbies halfback Joe Powell said.
“But it can quickly come and go so we’re definitely not buying into it too much.”
The Hurricanes are also 1-1 after two rounds, following up a one-point away win over the Waratahs in Sydney with a 38-22 loss to the defending champion Crusaders in Christchurch.
“They probably won’t be happy with their performance and they will be going out to prove a point early in the year,” Powell said.
Recent results:
2018: Brumbies won 24-12, Canberra
2017: Hurricanes won 35-16, Canberra (quarterfinal)
2017: Hurricanes won 56-21, Napier
2016: Brumbies won 52-10, Canberra
2015: Hurricanes won 29-9, Wellington (semifinal)
Prediction: The Hurricanes have lost six of their last seven regular-season games against the Brumbies, although their one victory in that run came the last time they hosted the Brumbies in the regular season. The Hurricanes have won 22 of their last 23 home games, with only the Chiefs managing to win away to the Canes in that spell, back in June 2017. The Hurricanes have won 13 of their last 14 Super Rugby games against Australian opposition, including a 20-19 victory over NSW Waratahs in the opening round of this season. The Brumbies come into this game on the back of a big victory against the Chiefs, they’ve not won consecutive games against New Zealand opposition since winning three such games in a row in 2014. Thirty-seven of the last 38 Super Rugby games where a New Zealand team have hosted an Australian team have been won by the New Zealand team.
Winner: Hurricanes
Likely winning margin: 12
Rugby Pass Index Prediction
Teams:
Hurricanes: 15 Chase Tiatia, 14 Vince Aso, 13 Matt Proctor, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Ben Lam, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Thomas Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Vaea Fifita, 5 Liam Mitchell, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Ben May, 2 Dane Coles (captain), 1 Chris Eves.
Replacements: 16 Ricky Riccitelli, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Jeff To’omaga-Allen, 19 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 20 Reed Prinsep, 21 Richard Judd, 22 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 23 Wes Goosen
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Chance Peni, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Lachlan McCaffrey, 7 David Pocock, 6 Pete Samu, 5 Blake Enever, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 James Slipper, 18 Leslie Leauluaialii-Makin, 19 Darcy Swain, 20 Tom Cusack, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 Wharenui Hawera, 23 Tom Wright
Referee: Nick Briant
Assistant referees: Federico Anselmi, Nick Hogan
TMO: Aaron Paterson
Rebels v Highlanders
(Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, Melbourne – Kick-off: 19.45; 21.45 NZ time; 08.45 GMT)
REBELS V HIGHLANDERS: FOLLOW IT LIVE
The Rebels have tempered their emotions after beating the Brumbies in Round One.
Coming off an early bye, the Rebels are looking to back up their opening round victory over the Brumbies, who last week demolished the Chiefs 54-17.
They had to press the reset button after last week’s bye and are gearing up for a stern test from the Highlanders.
“The Highlanders are very well coached and this game more than any other is one where you have to back yourself because you don’t really know what they are going to throw at you,” coach Dave Wessels said.
“If you understand your principles you can cope with whatever comes.”
The Highlanders are two-from-two, but neither win was convincing – 30-27 over the Chiefs in Hamilton and 36-31 over the Reds in Dunedin.
Highlanders assistant coach Mark Hammett is not content with the way his side has been playing.
“We’re happy with the eight points, but we’re way off where we know we can be,” Hammett told the Otago Daily Times.
“The attitude is exactly where we want it to be.
“It is just around our implementation and skill sets [where] there is still lots to work on, as you would expect.”
The Reds exposed a few holes in the Highlanders’ defensive line.
“We were happy with our structure. But that was where we only felt we got it half right.
“We knew where we were going but we didn’t hit the fire button. There are obviously some individuals who will be disappointed with one-on-one missed tackles.
“That has been a big focus for the early part of our week.”
Rebels inside centre Meakes said his side wasn’t getting carried away with the ramifications of the Chiefs’ big loss.
“I don’t know if we can read too much into that one as obviously the Chiefs weren’t at their best and the Brumbies were much better,” Meakes said.
“We can only test that for ourselves.
“Obviously the Kiwi teams have been the pinnacle.”
Recent results:
2018: Highlanders won 43-37, Dunedin
2017: Highlanders won 51-12, Dunedin
2016: Highlanders won 27-3, Melbourne
2014: Highlanders won 33-30, Dunedin
2013: Rebels won 38-37, Melbourne
Prediction: The Highlanders have won six of their seven Super Rugby meetings with the Rebels, their only defeat to the Melbourne outfit coming in July 2013. The Rebels come into this match having opened their season with a victory for the sixth time in the last seven years, losing only their first match of 2017. The Highlanders have won 14 of their last 16 regular season games against Australian opposition, including each of their last three in a row. The Highlanders have made the joint most clean breaks (28, level with the Brumbies) and gained the most metres of any side (1005). Jermaine Ainsley (Rebels) has conceded five penalties already in Super Rugby 2019; only NSW Waratahs’ Sekope Kepu (six) has conceded more.
Winner: Highlanders
Likely winning margin: 6
Rugby Pass Index Prediction
Teams:
Rebels: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Jack Maddocks, 13 Tom English, 12 Billy Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Brad Wilkin, 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Matt Philip, 4 Luke Jones, 3 Sam Talakai, 2 Anaru Rangi, 1 Tetera Faulkner.
Replacements: 16 Robbie Abel, 17 Matt Gibbon, 18 Jermaine Ainsley, 19 Adam Coleman, 20 Richard Hardwick, 21 Rob Leota, 22 Michael Ruru, 23 Reece Hodge
Highlanders: 15 Josh Ioane, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Thomas Umaga-Jensen, 12 Teihorangi Walden, 11 Josh McKay, 10 Bryn Gatland, 9 Kayne Hammington, 8 Elliot Dixon, 7 James Lentjes, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Pari Pari Parkinson, 4 Jackson Hemopo, 3 Siate Tokolahi, 2 Ash Dixon (Captain), 1 Daniel Lienert-Brown.
Replacements: 16 Ricky Jackson, 17 Ayden Johnstone, 18 Josh Iosefa-Scott, 19 Tom Franklin, 20 Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, 21 Folau Fakatava, 22 Patelesio Tomkinson, 23 Marty Banks
Referee: AJ Jacobs
Assistant referees: Marius van der Westhuizen, Damon Murphy
TMO: Ian Smith
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@king365ed
@rugby365com
* Stats courtesy of Opta Sports
