Are the All Blacks paying for New Zealand's fixation on an expansive game?

The predominant theme throughout the three Tests in Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry has been the Springboks’ decisive set-piece superiority over the All Blacks.

This raises a critical question: Are the All Blacks suffering due to New Zealand’s fixation on an expansive style of play?

The prevailing notion in Super Rugby – that defence is optional and set pieces simply serve as a means of restarting the game – appears to leave the New Zealand team grappling with more uncertainties than clarity.

Leading up to the four-Test series and during their dominance over second-tier domestic teams, some Kiwi commentators suggested that their style was the definitive approach to the game.

Following a dismal performance in the first Test, where the Springboks committed 23 turnovers and missed 25 tackles, resulting in a 33-16 victory for the All Blacks, there was a sense of triumph regarding New Zealand’s forwards’ skills.

However, as the Springboks shook off the early series rust and their experienced forward pack found its rhythm, the narrative began to shift.

The reintroduction of the traditional long tour format has delivered the anticipated excitement of a classic heavyweight confrontation.

Throughout the three challenging Tests on South African soil, the focus has not been on the tactical innovations of backline structures or sweeping phase-play.

Rather, the dominant storyline has been the Springboks’ relentless set-piece control over the All Blacks.

By transforming scrums and line-out mauls into tools of psychological and physical pressure, South Africa effectively curtailed New Zealand’s renowned running game, establishing a crucial two-one series lead as they head into the final match in Baltimore.

New Zealand has faced a significant influx of scrum penalties.

In the third Test alone, front-row players George Bower, Fletcher Newell, Tyrel Lomax, and Xavier Numia collectively conceded six scrum penalties, in addition to a crucial penalty try awarded in the 36th minute, stemming directly from a collapsed five-meter scrum.

The tone for this forward-led assault was established as the series progressed.

At Ellis Park, the scrum penalty count stood at three to one in favour of the Springboks.

The situation deteriorated for the All Blacks as they faced a four-nil penalty count in Cape Town, which escalated to five-nil and included a penalty try in Soweto.

Although the All Blacks initially seized the advantage at Ellis Park with a decisive 33-16 victory, capitalising on early errors, the Springbok response in both Cape Town and Soweto showcased a masterclass in direct pressure through set-pieces.

Under the direction of coach Rassie Erasmus, the world champions view the set-piece not just as a means of restarting play but as a key offensive springboard.

The second Test in Cape Town marked a pivotal shift in momentum.

While the All Blacks did manage to outscore the hosts with four tries to three and enjoyed considerable territorial advantage, their progress was consistently hindered by a tenacious South African defence and a tightening grip on set-pieces.

The Springbok scrum began to shape the refereeing narrative, earning penalties that allowed Cheslin Kolbe to keep the scoreboard active in a narrow 33-26 victory.

As the teams prepared for the highly anticipated third Test at a packed Soccer City in Soweto, the disparity in set-piece performance had widened significantly.

The final score of 29-24, which may appear flattering to the All Blacks, secured the series for the Springboks and served as a clear demonstration of the superiority of their tight five.

In the crucial moments of the second half, the Springbok scrum overwhelmed the New Zealand pack, disrupting their discipline and directly resulting in a vital penalty try from close range.

When penalties were not being won at the scrum, the Springbok line-out maul functioned as an effective battering ram.

New Zealand’s defenders struggled to find solutions against the coordinated strength of the South African pack.

It was fitting that the decisive moment of the match came from a classic driving maul, with substitute hooker Malcolm Marx powering over the line with relentless momentum.

This combination of sheer force and strategic variety prevented the All Blacks from accessing the quick, clean ball necessary to unleash their potent outside backs.

As the rivalry now shifts to Baltimore for a historic fourth and final Test, the groundwork for psychological advantage has already been laid on South African soil.

The Springboks have established the upper hand in this aspect of the contest.

An important statistic from this tour reveals that nine out of the 12 scrum penalties awarded to South Africa occurred during their own feeds.

When the All Blacks put the ball in, scrumhalf Cam Roigard frequently placed it beneath the locks’ feet (without incurring penalties) and cleared it out swiftly to safeguard the pack.

In contrast, the Springboks leveraged their control of the feed by deliberately holding the ball at the No.8’s feet, allowing the scrum to exert sustained pressure that ultimately led to the All Blacks’ pack fracturing.

The immense strength of the South African scrum led to crucial defensive breakthroughs, most notably an impactful penalty try conceded by New Zealand in the 36th minute of the Third Test in Soweto.

After All Black flyhalf Ruben Love received a yellow card for a cynical infringement near the line, South Africa opted for a five-meter attacking scrum.

The South African pack overpowered the New Zealand front row, resulting in a collapse that prompted referee Nika Amashukeli to immediately award the penalty try, equalising the scores at 12–all at halftime.

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New Zealand’s props – George Bower, Fletcher Newell, and Tyrel Lomax – consistently conceded penalties under pressure as they struggled to maintain legal binds while being pushed backwards.

Throughout the three tests of the 2026 series, the Springboks significantly outperformed in the set piece, achieving a total of 12 scrum penalties.

In sharp contrast, New Zealand faced considerable difficulty in disrupting the South African feed, managing only a single scrum penalty during the entire tour.

The struggle in the set-piece phase was mirrored in the touchline battles, with season-long metrics showing South Africa’s line-out operating at an impressive 93.1 percent success rate, while New Zealand lagged at 82.9 percent.

South Africa effectively targeted New Zealand’s throw-ins by deploying jumping pods at the tail and applying intense aerial pressure.

As a result, the All Blacks faced challenges with their overall line-out success rates compared to the Springboks, hindering their ability to launch multi-phase attacks off their own feeds.

Once South Africa was able to convert scrum and penalty advantages into attacking line-outs, the All Blacks found it increasingly difficult to handle the Springboks’ rolling mauls, which led to essential tries, including Malcolm Marx’s score in the 65th minute at Soccer City.

@JanDKrugby
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