Preview: New Zealand v Argentina
The pressure is on Dan Carter to reignite his running game against Argentina on Saturday as New Zealand embark on their Rugby Championship title defence.
The Argentina and All Black clash in Christchurch opens the fourth edition of The Rugby Championship, a tournament the All Blacks have always won and in which they have an impressive record of 16 wins, one draw and one loss from 18 games.
Both coaches will be juggling combinations through the Southern Hemisphere competition to best prepare for the global tournament in England in September and October.
History certainly favours New Zealand having never lost to Argentina but with Los Pumas fielding a renowned forward pack, conditions are ripe for a tense, tight battle in temperatures expected to be around freezing point.
But All Blacks coach Steve Hansen is keen to see Carter, the world's leading Test points scorer, up the pace of the game and bring more variety to his play.
Carter won the World Player of the Year award when his peerless running game helped the All Blacks trounce the British and Irish Lions 3-1 in their 2005 Test series.
It is part of his game that has drifted off in recent years and if the All Blacks telegraph anything before the World Cup it will be Hansen's drive to bring it back.
"I think he can create more danger by carrying and once he gets that back into his game then he's a very, very dangerous attacker because he can carry, he can pass and he can kick," Hansen said.
The All Blacks have made six changes to the side that under-performed against Samoa last week, including the introduction of wing Waisake Naholo, the top try scorer in Super Rugby this year.
Naholo and fellow wing Julian Savea run off the end of a backline that features a powerful centres pairing of Ma'a Nonu and Sonny Bill Williams outside Carter.
Argentina coach Daniel Hourcade, whose side have only one win at home against Australia from three years in the competition, fears his team face a backlash from an All Blacks unit embarrassed by being held to a 25-16 win by Samoa last week.
"Surely, they are going to correct what they have done. That's why they are the best team in the world," he said.
Argentina captain Augustin Creevy said his side would have to be at the best to get near the All Blacks, which will not be easy with the Pumas forced to rest some players, including star playmaker Juan Martin Hernandez, who have just completed an arduous season in Europe.
Their run-on side includes three players – Santiago Cordero, Facunda Isa and Guido Petti Pagadizabal – who have not experienced Rugby Championship pressure before.
Players to watch:
For New Zealand: All eyes will be on the midfield partnership of Sonny Bill Williams and Ma'a Nonu in anticipation of what tricks and big hits they pull out of the bag. Keep an eye on Israel Dagg as he will be looking to silence his critics with a performance we know he is capable of. TJ Perenara has to make the most of his time in the No.9 jersey and put in a skilful performance staking a claim to keep it. In the forwards look no further than big bruiser Brody Retallick cleaning rucks all day and disrupting line-out ball.
For Argentina: The spotlight will be on the Pumas engine room where they will look to gain dominance – Marcos Ayerza will be looking to expose any weaknesses in the All Black pack. Manuel Carizza – the line-out specialist fresh from Super Rugby – can target Keven Mealamu's line-out throwing. In the backs, playmaker Nicolas Sanchez is capable of sparking any backline and he will look to put away Saracens centre Marcelo Bosch and experienced wing Horacio Agulla.
Head to head: The breakdown will be a phenomenal showdown between the flanks – Argentina's experienced duo of Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe and Juan Manuel Leguizamon will clash heads with All Black veterans Richie McCaw and Jerome Kaino – a mouthwatering battle. The heat will be on the frontrows where Argentina will look to exploit their strength as a pack. Turning attention to the backline, the flyhalf dual between two classy No.10's in Dan Carter and Nicolas Sanchez will want to release their midfield where there is another monster clash at outside centre – Ma'a Nonu (un customised to No.13) will go head to head with Marcelo Bosch.
Previous results:
2014: New Zealand won 34-13, La Plata
2014: New Zealand won 28-9, Napier
2013: New Zealand won 33-15, La Plata
2013: New Zealand won 28-13, Hamilton
2012: New Zealand won 54-15, La Plata
2012: New Zealand won 21-5, Wellington
2011: New Zealand won 33-10, Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 25-19, Buenos Aires
2004: New Zealand won 41-7, Hamilton
2001: New Zealand won 24-20, Buenos Aires
Prediction: The All Blacks have never lost to Argentina and have won the last 18 meetings between the sides. New Zealand has scored at least two tries in each of their 20 games against Los Pumas, averaging 5.3 per game. In contrast, Argentina has never scored more than two tries in a game against the All Blacks and have managed just one in the last three Tests between the nations. The last seven meetings between the sides have all seen the All Blacks win by 15 plus points. Steve Hansen’s men have won their last six on the bounce and have lost just one of their last 29 games. Los Pumas won their last Rugby Championship game but are yet to win away from home in the tournament. However, three of their last four away defeats have been by seven points or fewer. New Zealand averaged the most metres per game (480) in The Rugby Championship last year, while Argentina gained the fewest per match (340). Argentina ranked second for clean breaks (6.7) behind the All Blacks (9.5) however. Argentina boasted the best ruck success in last year’s competition (95 percent) while New Zealand had the lowest success rate (92 percent). TheAll Blacks had the best tackling success (88 percent), while Los Pumas’ 83 percent was the lowest such figure. The All Blacks scored the most (18) and conceded the fewest tries (7) in the competition last year. Argentina will put up a good fight but New Zealand will blow them away in the last quarter and win by 20 plus.
Teams:
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Ma'a Nonu, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Charles Piutau, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Jeremy Thrush, 20 Liam Messam, 21 Andy Ellis, 22 Colin Slade, 23 Ryan Crotty.
Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Horacio Agulla, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Jerónimo De la Fuente, 11 Cordero Santiago, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Thomas Cubelli, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 6 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 5 Guido Petti Pagadizabal, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustin Creevy (captain), 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Replacements: 16 Julian Montoya, 17 Lucas Noguera, 18 Nahuel Chaparro Tetaz, 19 Benjamin Macome, 20 Javier Ortega Desio, 21 Martin Landajo, 22 Santiago González Iglesias, 23 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino.
Date: Friday, July 17
Venue: AMI Stadium, Christchurch
Kick-off: 19.35 (04.35 Argentina time; 07.35 GMT)
Expected weather: Ice cold at Seven degrees Celsius with expected rain.
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Jaco Peyper (South Africa), Stuart Berry (South Africa)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)
