Australia v France - Teams and Prediction

PREVIEW: Australia might “blow hot and cold”, but they cannot be taken lightly, France coach Fabien Galthie says, with both teams desperate to bounce back from gut-wrenching defeats when they meet in the Nations Championship on Saturday.

The Wallabies blew a 12-point lead in a crushing 33-31 loss to Andy Farrell’s Ireland in Sydney last weekend, where ill-discipline cost them dearly.

It was their eighth defeat in nine Tests and another example of their inability to close out games.

Six Nations champions France were similarly devastated after failing to get over the line against the All Blacks in Christchurch, falling 32-34 in a nine-try epic.

Despite Australia’s patchy form, a France side missing a host of big names remains wary ahead of the clash at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.

“They’re an on-and-off team. They’re capable of beating anyone,” said Galthie.

“At times, they impose their rugby, built on speed and power. Then there are moments of inconsistency. They’re a team that blows hot and cold.

“But when they’re good, you see the roots of the two world titles they have in their trophy cabinet.”

Australia won the World Cup in 1991 and 1999 but were eliminated in the pool stages in 2023 and are currently ranked eighth, behind France’s fourth place.

While France have won their last three games against them, all at Stade de France, most recently a 48-33 triumph in November, the Wallabies have traditionally been strong at Suncorp Stadium.

They have been victorious in all five Tests against Les Blues at the venue.

Nevertheless, they will have their work cut out against an attack-minded outfit, who, despite losing to New Zealand, were dangerous on the break.

Big ask

France are without injured record try scorer Damian Penaud but reinforced by the addition to the starting XV of five players who featured in the Top 14 final between Toulouse and Montpellier late last month.

That includes big hooker Peato Mauvaka, who is part of a revamped second row with Montpellier’s Florian Verhaeghe and Toulouse giant Emmanuel Meafou, signalling the battle among the forwards could be pivotal.

Galthie also sprung a surprise by shifting star playmaker Matthieu Jalibert to fullback to make way for Toulouse’s Romain Ntamack at flyhalf.

Australia coach Joe Schmidt has gambled on yet another new flyhalf in the uncapped Declan Meredith after injuries ruled out Carter Gordon and Ben Donaldson.

He is the sixth player to wear the No.10 jersey over the last year.

Tom Wright comes in for Jock Campbell at fullback in the only other change to a settled side.

The outgoing Schmidt, at his penultimate Test before handing over to new coach Les Kiss, admits Meredith will be under enormous pressure.

“It’s a million-dollar question, really, isn’t it?” Schmidt said when asked if the Brumbies playmaker could handle such a big occasion. “It’s a big ask to suddenly be thrust into it.

“Declan’s had 10 days with us effectively, so he’s had a chance to build a bit of confidence and hopefully to add a bit of continuity.”

One area where Australia was strong against Ireland was their tackling, underscoring their physicality in defence, which will be central to their game plan.

They also stole two line-outs, a set-piece weapon that could prove decisive.

But their discipline was an issue, giving away 11 penalties in their own half, a trait Schmidt says must end.

Players to watch:

For Australia: Max Jorgensen and Dylan Pietsch’s finishing ability will be vital when coming up against a dangerous French back three, but they’ll need the work of their centres, Len Iketau and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, to provide them with the space to do so. All eyes will be on debutant flyhalf Declan Meredith in combination with halfback partner Ryan Longergan. Harry Wilson’s ball-carrying ability, breakdown work and leadership will be key to disrupting France’s quick ball, whilst the front row will have their work cut out against a monstrous Les Bleus scrum.

For France: Matthieu Jalibert’s counter-attacking ability will pose a massive threat to the Aussies if they kick poorly. Theo Attissogbe is in hot form and could punish the Wallabies if not contained. Emmanuel Meafou’s physical presence will be vital in his carries and scrummaging.

*See the teams and prediction below!

Prediction:

Rugby365: France by 10 points

Teams:

Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 Declan Meredith, 9 Ryan Lonergan, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Josh Canham, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Josh Nasser, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Lachlan Shaw, 20 Nick Champion de Crespigny, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Jock Campbell, 23 Filipo Daugunu.

France: 15 Matthieu Jalibert, 14 Theo Attissogbe, 13 Fabien Brau Boirie, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang; 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Maxime Lucu (captain), 8 Marko Gazzotti, 7 Oscar Jegou, 6 Lenni Nouchi, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 4 Florian Verhaeghe; 3 Demba Bamba, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Moses Alo-Emile
Replacements: 16 Maxime Lamothe, 17 Jefferson Poirot, 18 Tevita Tatafu, 19 Hugo Auradou, 20 Tom Staniforth, 21 Killian Tixeront, 22 Nolann Le Garrec, 23 Kalvin Gourgues.

Date: Saturday, July 11
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Kick-off: 17.40 (09.40 CEST; 07.40 GMT)
Expected weather: Sunny to partly cloudy with a high of 22 and a low of 12 degrees Celsius and winds of 11 kilometres per hour
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant referees: Christophe Ridley (England), Katsuki Furuse (Japan)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (England)