Australia v Italy - Teams and Prediction
PREVIEW: Australia and Italy head into Saturday’s Nations Championship clash still searching for their first win of the tournament, and another defeat would deepen concerns about their respective trajectories heading into a crucial World Cup cycle.
The Wallabies have endured a difficult campaign under Joe Schmidt, falling narrowly to Ireland in Sydney before suffering a 42-26 defeat to France in Brisbane. Those results extended Australia’s losing streak to six Tests and left them with just one victory from their last 10 outings.
Schmidt insists the results do not tell the full story.
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The outgoing Wallabies coach believes his side are closer to a breakthrough than their record suggests, pointing to improvements in their attacking game and set-piece work. Australia have, in fact, been one of the competition’s strongest lineout teams, with Josh Canham leading the way with three steals.
Looking for a winning farewell before handing over to Les Kiss, Schmidt has made three changes to his starting XV. Carlo Tizzano returns to the back row, Brandon Paenga-Amosa starts at hooker, while Harry Potter comes into the back three.
“You know, a couple of mistakes make the difference, but it’s been incredibly frustrating because I keep feeling we’re not far off,” Schmidt said.
“People will look at the results, and that’s how you’re judged. I fully understand that.
“But the number of tries we’re scoring and the improvements we’ve seen in some of our set-piece work show we’re moving in the right direction.”
Australia’s biggest challenge has been instability at flyhalf. Injuries have repeatedly disrupted Schmidt’s plans, forcing the Wallabies to use nine different No.10s in just 17 Tests. However, young playmaker Declan Meredith showed promise against France and retains the jersey after an encouraging debut.
Italy arrive in Australia facing similar pressure.
The Azzurri are still waiting for their first victory after opening the competition with a defeat to Japan before being outclassed by New Zealand in Wellington. Their tally of just 27 points is the lowest of any side in the competition.
Head coach Gonzalo Quesada, who is serving a two-match suspension following criticism of match officials, has responded by making sweeping changes, with nine alterations to the side that lost to the All Blacks.
Despite the defeats, Italy have shown flashes of quality. Their performance against New Zealand contained enough positives to suggest they remain a dangerous proposition, particularly through a talented backline featuring Paolo Garbisi, Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex.
The return of Louis Lynagh and Monty Ioane on the wings further strengthens an attack capable of troubling any defence.
Italy’s recent form, however, remains a concern. Since their historic Six Nations victory over England, they have failed to register another win and now face the prospect of a fourth consecutive defeat.
Captain Michele Lamaro will once again lead from the front, alongside Ross Vintcent and Riccardo Favretto in the back row, as the visitors look to halt their slide.
For both teams, Saturday’s clash represents a chance to reset their campaigns. Australia are desperate to give Schmidt a winning send-off and end a miserable run of results, while Italy need a statement performance to prove their recent struggles are merely a bump in the road rather than the start of a worrying decline.
With both sides under pressure and neither willing to leave empty-handed, the fixture could prove one of the most compelling contests of the Nations Championship weekend.
The heavy rotation by Italy could see them suffer another defeat this summer as Schmidt aims to finish his tenure as Wallabies coach with a victory.
Prediction:
@Rugby365: Australia by seven points
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Harry Potter, 10 Declan Meredith, 9 Ryan Lonergan, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Carlo Tizzano, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Josh Canham, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 James Slipper, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Miles Amatosero, 20 Fraser McReight, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Filipo Daugunu.
Italy: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Paolo Odogwu, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Garbisi, 8 Ross Vintcent, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Riccardo Favretto, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Giulio Marini, 3 Marco Riccioni, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 1 Muhamed Hasa.
Replacements: 16 Pablo Dimcheff, 17 Danilo Fischetti, 18 Ion Neculai, 19 Andrea Zambonin, 20 Alessandro Ortombina, 21 Alessandro Fusco, 22 Giacomo Da Re, 23 Leonardo Marin.
Date: Saturday, July 18
Venue: HBF Park, Perth
Kick-off: 18.10 (12.10 CEST; 10.10 GMT)
Referee: Christophe Ridley (England)
Assistant referees: Karl Dickson (England), Morné Ferreira (South Africa)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
