Ireland v Australia - Teams and Prediction

PREVIEW: Australia may have lost five of their last six Tests, but they could cause an upset in Saturday’s international in Dublin against an Ireland side who are “rather flat and lack a cutting edge”, former Irish fullback Hugo MacNeill told AFP.

The game represents a chance for former Ireland coach Joe Schmidt to get the better of his successor Andy Farrell, after the latter guided the British and Irish Lions to a 2-1 series victory over the Wallabies in July.

Ireland have beaten Australia in their last four meetings, but they have all been tight, including the 22-19 victory in Dublin last November.

That gave the Irish a measure of revenge over Schmidt, who had been pivotal as a member of the New Zealand backroom staff in dashing their dreams of 2023 World Cup glory by beating them in the quarterfinals.

Schmidt is still regarded with affection in Ireland after sparking a golden era by delivering three Six Nations titles – including the 2018 Grand Slam – and victories over all the southern hemisphere teams, including a historic first win over the All Blacks.

Farrell has built on that, but to many there is a feeling that the team have been in decline dating back to that World Cup defeat by New Zealand, which also heralded the retirement of their legendary flyhalf Johnny Sexton.

The Irish come into the game on the back of a 41-10 victory over Japan in Dublin – though the final result flattered the hosts. The Wallabies, meanwhile, suffered a surprise 19-26 defeat to Italy.

MacNeill, however, thinks Farrell’s men could be there for the taking at Lansdowne Road.

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“Joe has tried to model the Wallabies on what he did in Ireland, but you need the players to do so,” MacNeill told AFP by phone.

“Australia can be competitive; they beat the Lions in the final Test and the Springboks in South Africa.

“It’s going to be a tough game. We are rebuilding and are presently in a tough but not fantastic situation.

“They will fancy having a go at Ireland and not letting the Irish get an early score and the crowd fired up.”

‘Scruff of the neck’

MacNeill, a key member of two Triple Crown-winning sides in 1982 and 1985, says the Irish have retreated to their old tactics of “kicking to the corners and relying on the maul, or Dan Sheehan picking it up off a line-out close to the tryline”.

The problem, says the former British and Irish Lion, is that no one has stepped up and filled the “huge boots of Johnny [Sexton]”.

Since Sexton retired, Farrell has switched between Munster’s Jack Crowley and Leinster’s Sam Prendergast, neither of whom has been able to convince the coach he is the undisputed number one.

“There is a lack of coherence to the team,” said MacNeill, with Prendergast named to start on Saturday with Crowley on the bench.

“We have looked very blunt both against Japan and New Zealand.

“We lack the leadership and direction in the backs that Johnny delivered time and again.”

MacNeill, capped 36 times from 1981-91, said that with only two years to go to the Rugby World Cup, it is a major worry.

Crowley is 25 and Prendergast is three years younger.

“They are talented players, do not get me wrong,” said MacNeill.

“However, if you look back over the past two years, can one say that either one of them has taken a game by the scruff of the neck?

“No, is the answer.”

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For MacNeill, 67, Ireland still possesses outstanding backs. He singled out Jamison Gibson-Park and the injured fullback Hugo Keenan.

The next two Tests, against the Wallabies and then world champions South Africa on Saturday week, could be pivotal in indicating which direction Ireland are going, MacNeill said.

“We have had some golden years and people expected us to beat the Southern Hemisphere teams,” said MacNeill.

“These two Tests will either show that the Irish are reinvigorated or that this team has run its course.”

Players to watch

For Ireland: Ireland’s Mack Hansen will make a first Test start at fullback against his native Australia, with Sam Prendergast recalled at flyhalf. Canberra-born Hansen, available following a foot issue and best known as a wing, replaces the injured Jamie Osborne. Prendergast makes his first start of the Nations Series after providing back-up for rival flyhalf Jack Crowley in Ireland’s 13-26 defeat to New Zealand on November 1 and last weekend’s 41-10 thrashing of Japan at Lansdowne Road. Prop Paddy McCarthy has been handed a first Test start following his debut against the All Blacks and try-scoring cameo against Japan. Stuart McCloskey returns at inside centre after overcoming a groin problem.

For Australia: James O’Connor has been summoned to revive Australia’s faltering Nations Series campaign. O’Connor and Len Ikitau, recalled at centre, both missed the 7-25 loss to England at Twickenham on November 1 and the 19-26 defeat by Italy in Udine last weekend. Ikitau, meanwhile, resumes his centre partnership with Joseph Aukuso-Suaalii for the 12th time in the Wallabies’ last 16 Tests. Experienced prop Allan Alaalatoa returns to the starting 15, joining hooker Matt Faessler and Angus Bell in the front row. In a further change to the pack, Tom Hooper moves to lock with Rob Valetini starting at blindside flank in a back row featuring Fraser McReight and skipper Harry Wilson.

Prediction

Rugby365: Ireland by five points.

Teams:

Ireland: 15 Mack Hansen, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Caelan Doris (captain), 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Paddy McCarthy.
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Andrew Porter, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 Nick Timoney, 20 Cian Prendergast, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Bundee Aki.

Australia: 15 Max Jorgensen, 14 Filipo Daugunu, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Harry Potter, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Tom Hooper, 4 Jeremy Williams, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Nick Frost, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Tane Edmed, 23 Andrew Kellaway.

Date: Saturday, November 15
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 20.10 (20.10 GMT; 07.10 AEDT Sunday, November 16)
Expected weather: Light rain and moderate breeze with a temperature around 10°C
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant referees: Pierre Brousset (France), Adam Leal (England)
TMO: Ian Tempest (England)