New Zealand v Australia - Teams and Prediction

ROUND FIVE PREVIEW: This round of the Rugby Championship could be the Wallabies’ best shot at regaining the Bledisloe Cup in a decade.

History is, of course, stacked against them.

The Wallabies have lost their last nine matches against the All Blacks, with their last victory on New Zealand shores back in 2001 at Dunedin’s old Carisbrook stadium.

And the All Blacks have held the Bledisloe, a trophy they consider second only to the World Cup, for 22 years.

Joe Schmidt, though, has clearly instilled a depth of character, resilience, belief, and collective understanding in the Wallabies. Their new breed, the likes of Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii and Max Jorgensen, appear unburdened by the weight of history and the litany of previous failed Bledisloe heists.

New Zealand is on a nine-game winning streak against Australia, but two of their last three wins against the Wallabies have come by a margin of exactly three points on the day; their last loss to Australia was in November 2020 (22-24 at Suncorp Stadium).

The Kiwis are undefeated in their last 60 Tests in Auckland (W58, D2) and have won their last 14 in a row in the region, including a 24-17 win against South Africa in their only Test there in 2025; their last defeat there was against France in July 1994 (20-23).

The All Blacks’ selectors have named Ardie Savea to captain the side following a shoulder injury to Scott Barrett.

Five players who weren’t involved in the two Tests against the Springboks enter the 23 this week, as the All Blacks take on Australia in the final two rounds of the Lipovitan-D Rugby Championship and the first of two Bledisloe Cup Tests.

Cam Roigard and Cortez Ratima have both returned from injury to share halfback duties, while lock Patrick Tuipulotu also makes his return from injury to take a spot on the bench.

Caleb Clarke will start on the left wing for his first All Blacks game of the season, after injuring his ankle ahead of the second Test of the July series. That sees Leroy Carter move to the right wing for his second All Blacks Test; Will Jordan shifts to fullback, and Damian McKenzie fills the backline impact role.

Who could forget this UNREAL try from the @Wallabies‘ Marika Koroibete in 2020 😮‍💨

There is never a dull moment when these two sides meet 💪#TheRugbyChampionship pic.twitter.com/IZqfVEw84Y

— TheRugbyChampionship (@SanzarTRC) September 26, 2025

Loose forward Peter Lakai will also wear the black jersey for the first time in 2025, earning a place in the reserves.

A shoulder injury to Scott Barrett has ruled him out for this match; however, he is expected to be fit for the following Bledisloe Cup match in Perth. Fabian Holland will take the number four jersey, partnering with Tupou Vaa’i at lock.

Codie Taylor returns as the starting hooker this week, with Samisoni Taukei’aho in support from the bench.

All Blacks Head Coach Scott Robertson said the team was looking forward to returning to Eden Park, with both Rugby Championship points and the Bledisloe Cup to play for.

“With all teams being two from four in this Rugby Championship, we all have everything to play for in these final two rounds. We are preparing for a strong Australian side and understand the importance of this match and the Bledisloe Cup. There is a lot to play for on Saturday evening.”

Wallabies prop James Slipper will create history as the first Australian to reach 150 caps in the Bledisloe Cup Test in Auckland.

Slipper has been named to start at loosehead prop against the All Blacks, joining Sam Whitelock and Alun Wyn Jones as the only others to reach the special milestone.

It continues the Queenslander’s remarkable journey in the gold jersey, having debuted for Australia in 2010 and represented the country at four World Cups.

The 36-year-old is joined in the front-row by Taniela Tupou, with Brumbies leader Allan Alaalatoa featuring for the first time since the British & Irish Lions tour as a result of a shoulder injury via the bench.

Alaalatoa is one of several returning faces from injury for the Eden Park clash, with lock Nick Frost, winger Harry Potter, and centre Len Ikitau returning to the starting side.

Frost partners Lukhan Salakaia-Loto in the second row, with Tom Hooper shifting to blindside flanker after Rob Valetini’s calf injury.

As for Potter, his return is timely after Andrew Kellaway was ruled out with a tight calf, allowing Max Jorgensen to start at fullback for his first Bledisloe Test.

Meanwhile, Tate McDermott will start alongside James O’Connor in the halves in his 50th Test, with the Leicester signing making the mad dash back from the UK.

McDermott’s elevation paves the way for Ryan Lonergan to make his debut after several years toiling away in wider squads.

The replacements are stacked with explosive talent, with Jeremy Williams and Tane Edmed shifting back into finisher roles.

“The squad has worked away this week, fully aware of the challenge that awaits at Eden Park,” coach Joe Schmidt said in a statement.

“It’s a fitting occasion for James Slipper to reach the milestone of 150 test matches and for Tate McDermott to represent the Wallabies for the 50th time.”

Players to watch: 

For New Zealand: Ardie Savea leads New Zealand’s forwards in carries and meters gained in this tournament, though his workload has dipped in recent matches. Tupou Vaa’i will need to pick up the load for an All Blacks side that sits second-last in TRC for lineout success and last for scrum success.

For Australia: James O’Connor has been a creative spark, leading in offloads and break assists, while Fraser McReight has brought consistency with tries, tackles, and work at the breakdown. The strategy for the Wallabies must be to target the set-piece with Scott Barrett out, with Lukhan Salakaia-Loto the right man to do so.

Prediction:

@rugby365: All Blacks by three points

Teams

New Zealand: 15  Will Jordan, 14  Leroy Carter, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Fabian Holland, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16  Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Quinn Tupaea, 23  Damian McKenzie

Australia: 15 Max Jorgensen, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Corey Toole, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson ©, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 James Slipper
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Tane Edmed, 23 Filipo Daugunu

Date: Saturday, September 27
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 17.05 (15.05 AEST; 05.05 GMT)
Referee: Andrea Piardi (France)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (England), Morné Ferreira (South Africa)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)

Additional source @RugbyChampionship