Preview: New Zealand v Australia
It is a match that will decide the residence of the Bledisloe Cup, at least for a year or so.
Last Saturday Australia pulled a surprise on the world by winning two things – the Rugby Championship and a chance to win the Bledisloe Cup for the first time since 2002.
True Eden Park is in Auckland, whereas last Saturday they played in Sydney. However, there was enough evidence in Sydney to suggest that the Wallabies could win wherever the game was played – their concentration, energy and skill were such that they deserved their victory.
New Zealand hold the bulky Bledisloe Cup and Australia would need to win or draw on Saturday to wrestle it from them, for the All Blacks are the holders. If New Zealand win the series will be drawn, and the All Blacks retain the cup.
The Wallabies do not have a great record at Eden Park – played 25, won four and lost 21.
The last time they won there was in 1986, when New Zealand was trying to recover from the upset of the rebel Cavaliers' tour to South Africa. Since then Australia have lost 15 in a row, including 21-50 in 2014.
But history is there to be made.
In the match last Saturday, New Zealand had the better of the line-outs but the Wallabies – believe it or not – had the better of the scrums and were the ones who won the turnovers.
Judged by the changes made, it would seem that the Australians had lost to New Zealand last week. The All Blacks had three changes, the Wallabies six. And the introduction of Ma'a Nonu may be because of the injury to Sonny Bill Williams.
What is odd is that it was the speed in the Wallaby pack that was an important component of their victory. Now while New Zealand have opted to speed up, Australia have opted to bulk up. The All Blacks have brought in speedy Victor Vito in the place of Jerome Kaino and mobile Sam Whitelock for Luke Romano. And they have fast Sam Cane on the bench.
The Wallabies have bulked up and slowed down with Wycliff Palu on for iconic David Pocock and huge Will Skelton on for Dean Mumm.
The immediately understandable changes for the Wallabies are at halfback – where Nick Phipps had a horrid game last week, which may have contributed to Bernard Foley's ordinary performance.
So much depends on a scrumhalf. It is interesting that the Wallabies have no specialist scrumhalf on their bench, in fact just two backs with Matt Giteau able to play scrumhalf. Clearly they want to keep their forwards fresh.
Players to Watch:
For New Zealand: Again we should nominate all of the All Black backs, especially the back three. But one must not overlook Conrad Smith, the most classical of outside centres with his straight running and his ability to create space for his wings. One would look to see far greater energy and personality from the New Zealand forwards. People who can crack a game open, Kieran Read and Dane Coles, were fairly anonymous last week.
For Australia: The Wallaby backs are certainly also worth watching, from Israel Folau to Nic White. For one thing you will see, for better or worse, Quade Cooper for all the time he is on the field. But Adam Ashley-Cooper may just have the greatest value for his side. In the Wallaby pack, the work of Scott Fardy may well be worth watching as it may be undervalued.
Head to Head: The front rows. They counted last week, not least in the fewness of the annoying resets, and there are the same six players at one another again this week. Mind you the thrust from behind may well be vital and the bulked Wallabies may be able to win a clear advantage there. Scrumhalves always have their own battle, but Aaron Smith tends to play the game with greater liveliness, accuracy and better manners than Nic White does. If the ball gets wide, the four wings could have great competition – Nehe Milner-Skudder versus Henry Sleight and Julian Savea versus Adam Ashley-Cooper. Those could be fascinating battles, given opportunities. After all three of the five tries last week were scored by wings.
Recent results:
2015: Australia won 27-19, Sydney
2014: New Zealand won 29-28, Brisbane
2014: New Zealand won 51-20, Auckland
2014: New Zealand and Australia drew 12-all, Sydney
2013: New Zealand won 41-33, Dunedin
2013: New Zealand won 27-16, Wellington
2013: New Zealand won 47-29, Sydney
2012: New Zealand and Australia drew 18-all, Brisbane
2012: New Zealand won 22-0, Auckland
2012: New Zealand won 27-19, Sydney
Prediction: In the full understanding of Australia's skill and competitive character and the surprise of last weekend, we believe that New Zealand will win by 10 points or more and keep the big Bledisloe Cup.
Teams
New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Victor Vito, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Jerome Kaino, 20 Sam Cane, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Colin Slade, 23 Malakai Fekitoa.
Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Toomua, 11 Henry Sleight, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Nic White, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 James Horwill, 4 Will Skelton, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (captain), 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 James Slipper, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 Dean Mumm, 20 Kane Douglas, 21 David Pocock, 22 Matt Giteau, 23 Kurtley Beale.
Date: Saturday, August 15
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 19.35 (17.35 AEST; 07.35 GMT)
Expected weather: Occasional showers, with a chance of a heavy downpour. Fresh southwesterlies. High of 14°C, low of 9°C
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Federico Anselmi (Argentina)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
By Paul Dobson
@rugby365com
