South Africa v Australia - Teams and Prediction

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: The first round of the Rugby Championship will answer a plethora of questions that have been voiced throughout the week in the build-up to the encounter between South Africa and Australia at Ellis Park on Saturday.

Are the Springboks battle-hardened after some mediocre opposition against Italy and Georgia in their first Test outings this year?

Springbok captain Siya Kolisi runs out in the unfamiliar No.8 jersey. Will that experiment work?

Can Australia maintain the consistency they built up in the three-Test series against the British and Irish Lions and keep up that standard in the Rugby Championship? They’ve finished last in each of the last two years.

How well will they adapt to the lung-busting Ellis Park?

And will the selection of veteran James O’Connor at flyhalf and Nic White at scrumhalf, out of retirement after just a few days, work?

Altitude was a big talking point this week, in both camps. Ellis Park is 1753m above sea level, where the air is thinner and breathing is difficult during physical exertion.

It’s one of the toughest Test venues in the world for visiting teams.

The Wallabies haven’t beaten South Africa in their last four Tests, their last eight Tests in South Africa, and in seven Tests at Ellis Park dating back to 1963.

South Africa has won six of its last seven Tests at the stadium against all comers.

– Unwanted history –

Australia created unwanted history at the 2023 World Cup in France by failing to make the knockout stages for the first time.

Last year, they suffered a 40-point loss in Argentina, one of five defeats in six Championship matches.

But the just-completed three-Test series against the British and Irish Lions saw dramatic Test-by-Test improvement, culminating in a 22-12 triumph in the last encounter under a Sydney deluge.

Australia lost the series 2-1, but impressed with their physicality and passion.

Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus was particularly impressed with the work of the Australian pack, led by captain and No. 8 Harry Wilson, at the breakdowns.

This was an area where the Springboks did not always impose themselves when beating Italy twice and Georgia comfortably in warm-up matches.

“They (Australians) really fight hard at the breakdowns and clean out well. We have to nullify that threat,” said Erasmus.

Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus has named a typically formidable squad with 18 World Cup winners among the matchday 23, a sample of what New Zealand and Argentina will face later in the tournament.

Both teams saw late forced changes on Friday, with Boan Venter coming in for the injured Jan-Hendrik Wessels.

Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt had initially unveiled a six-two split between forwards and backs for Saturday’s match, but then backflipped on that decision.

On Friday, the Wallaby camp revealed that flyhalf Tane Edmed will replace Nick Champion de Crespigny on the bench.

There will now be some flyhalf cover for James O’Connor, who is starting in the No.10 jersey at Ellis Park.

For the Springboks flyhalf Manie Libbok got the nod ahead of World Cup winner Handre Pollard and the exciting Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu.

But Libbok is hitting his kicking stride with more ease, while there is no doubt about his playmaking abilities.

Schmidt is a fan

“I recall clearly that no-look, kick-pass of Libbok’s against Scotland in the World Cup. That is the abundance of talent that they have. They can play in so many different ways. They can outmuscle you, they can outspeed you, and out-skill you,” Schmidt told a mostly South African media contingent in attendance during a briefing on Thursday.

“We have to be a lot better than we were in that last Lions Test, not just because of who we are playing but where we are.”

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On Friday, Springbok captain Siya Kolisi explained how his role will change from the No.6 to the  No.8 position.

“My role has changed a little bit just with the line-outs and scrums.

“But other than that, I will do my normal job.

“Breakdown is a focal point; they [Wallabies] are very good at it. So, Marco [van Staden] and Pieter-Steph [du Toit] and I have a job on our hands, but also the rest of the team.

“So that’s still going to be my focus point. To ensure when we have the ball, keep the ball and obviously try and slow down their ball or steal a couple of their balls,” the captain said.

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While South Africa has become wary of Australia, tradition favours a home victory as the Springboks have won 10 of 11 Tests against the Wallabies at Ellis Park.

Players to watch

For South Africa: It will be interesting to see what tactic the Boks’ general, Libbok goes for. Will he use his prolific kicking boot to tire out the Aussies at altitude or get his pack to use their slow poison? No doubt scrumhalf Grant Williams, one of the fastest players in the Bok squad, will snipe and kick to mesmerise the opposition. The loose trio of Kolisi, Van Staden and Du Toit will have their hands full, especially at breakdown. This might be where the game will be won or lost.

For Australia: Harry Wilson, Fraser McReight, Tom Hooper and the two loose forwards on the bench will know that ascendancy in their sphere of influence could prove decisive. Veteran O’Connor will be under scrutiny to prove his coach made the right call in bringing him back, and his linking up with White will ensure the Wallabies’ front-foot ascendancy, or the lack thereof.

Prediction:

@rugby365com: South Africa by 15 points

South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Edwill van der Merwe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Siya Kolisi (captain), 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit , 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Boan Venter, 18 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Canan Moodie, 23 Damian Willemse.

Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Nic White, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tane Edmed, 22 Tate McDermott, 23 Andrew Kellaway.

Date: Saturday, August 16
Venue: Ellis Park, Johannesburg
Kick-off: 17.10 (15.10 GMT; 01:10, AEST, Sunday, August 17)
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: James Doleman (New Zealand), Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
TMO: Tual Trainini (France)