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Wales v Australia - teams and prediction

PREVIEW: Under-pressure Wales take on a resurgent Australia in Cardiff on Sunday desperate to avoid becoming a footnote in Welsh rugby history for all the wrong reasons.

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Warren Gatland’s team are on a string of 10 defeats on the trot, the latest a19- 24 loss to Fiji last weekend. A defeat by Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies would set a new national record.

“We’re desperate for a win,” admitted assistant coach Neil Jenkins of the clash against an Australian side fresh from pipping England 42-37 to kick off their bid to emulate the 1984 Grand Slam-winning Wallaby tourists who swept past all four home nations.

Wales have now not won since beating 2023 World Cup pool stage opponents Georgia and skipper Dewi Lake acknowledged that the “pressure is on all of us”, with a game against world champions South Africa scheduled six days after the Wallabies.

“Nothing has changed from our work from last week to this. We were well in the game (against Fiji) apart from the errors we made ourselves. I think we did enough to win the game,” said Lake.

Gatland is in his second spell as Wales coach. His first successful stint – which included two World Cup semifinals and four Six nations titles – has not been repeated, the New Zealander having overseen just six wins in 22 Tests since returning to Cardiff.

“‘Gats’ isn’t on the field, is he? The coaches give us the best platform to go and perform, and we should have comfortably won that game,” Lake said of the Fiji match.

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“The pressure is on all of us as a group when we are on a losing run like we are. We are all feeling it. Of course it hurts. We don’t go out to lose. But at some point we need to flip that.

“Teams have gone on losing runs before. In 2002-03, Wales went on the same run (of 10 defeats under Steve Hansen), and then 18 months later won a Grand Slam.

“We need to finish off those opportunities when we get them and make teams work harder for their points against us.”

Gatland made four changes from the team that went down to Fiji in a bid to also better Wales’ record against Australia: they have lost nine of the last 11 Tests, including a 2-0 away series defeat in the summer.

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“It is about results. I have tried to not shy away from that. I understand that. Criticism is part of the job and the role,” said Gatland amid talk of his future.

“We’re expecting an Australia side on a high after their win against England.”

Hard to beat

Australia’s Schmidt named Samu Kerevi at centre for Sunday’s match at the Principality Stadium, meaning that last week’s outstanding debutant Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii starts on the bench.

Kerevi and back rower Rob Valetini will play their 50th Tests for the Wallabies, with Allan Alaalatoa skippering the side from prop after subbing in the spectacular win over England.

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Joining Alaalatoa and Kerevi as starters are giant lock Will Skelton, flanker Seru Uru, Nic White at scrum-half and winger Max Jorgensen, who scored the match winning try against England.

Schmidt predicted a tough battle, citing Wales’ 40-6 victory over an Australian team then coached by Eddie Jones at last year’s Rugby World Cup.

“They also got very close to a number of teams in the Six Nations, losing by one score to England and Scotland, as well as Fiji last week,” said Schmidt.

“I am expecting them to be incredibly hard to beat. They are dogmatic with the way they go about their defensive work and are very hard to break down.”

Players to watch:

Wales: Tommy Reffell has won an average of 1.7 turnovers per 80 minutes played for Wales in 2024, the highest rate among the 166 players to have featured in 320 minutes of men’s Tier 1 rugby this year. Wales’ ability to score points is evident, as they have averaged 29 points per game. However, consistency remains an issue, as it is difficult to predict which Wallabies side will turn up. Blair Murray has been crossing the white line frequently for his club in West Wales and pressure will be on to perform.

Australia: With Joseph Suaalii on the bench this week, seen as one of the worst moves ever, it is evident that he will have to bring his mojo as an impact player. The new centre combination of Ikitau and Kerevi is vital to work, with the latter playing his first game for the Wallabies since the 2023 Rugby World Cup win over Portugal and earns his 50th Test cap for Australia in the process. Angus Bell beat nine defenders against England last weekend and he will be the anchor for the Aussies. Max Jorgensen starts on the left wing after his match-winning try last weekend and will be out to replicate his performance from last weekend.

Prediction:

@rugby365com: Australia by seven points

Teams:

Wales: 15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Blair Murray, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Jack Morgan, 6 James Botham, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Christ Tshiunza, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Sam Costelow, 23 Eddie James

Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Max Jorgensen, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Seru Uru, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii.

Date: Sunday, November 17
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 16.10 (16.10 GMT, 03,10 Australia time, Monday, November 18)
Referee: James Doleman (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Karl Dickson (England) & Angus Mabey (New Zealand)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)

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