Wallabies to divide and conquer on SA tour?
OPINION: While a blowout on the Highveld is expected, the Springboks should be wary of a Wallaby ambush in the second Test of the series in Cape Town.
The Boks and Wallabies will have differing goals for the Tests in Johannesburg and Cape Town.
The Boks will target two wins, and at least nine log points.
It’s a reasonable ambition, given their 10-point haul in the previous double-header – staged in Australia last season – and it could set the platform for another monumental Rugby Championship campaign.
The Wallabies have only won four Tests in South Africa since the dawn of the professional era, and haven’t won at Ellis Park in 1963.
While victory at the Boks’ highveld haven on Saturday would amount to the upset of the season, it is highly unlikely.
It’s also highly unlikely that the Wallabies will challenge the Boks two weeks in a row.
The smart money is on the Wallabies targeting one of the two matches.
If Schmidt’s side wins one from two, they will return to Australia as heroes, as it’s been 14 long years since the Wallabies’ last victory in the Republic.
It doesn’t matter where and how they win, only that they claim the one victory.
A series draw would boost the Australian game and deal the South Africans a significant blow on the eve of their double-header in New Zealand.
It’s not as far-fetched as it seems, and history shows how other teams have targeted matches strategically when touring South Africa.
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Nine years ago, Schmidt’s Ireland beat the Boks at Newlands to claim an inaugural victory on South African soil – and to take a 1-0 lead in the three-Test series.
With the second Test to be played in Johannesburg and the last in Port Elizabeth, I wondered if Ireland might focus on the latter clash at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, rather than the extraordinary challenge of defeating the Boks at Ellis Park.
By that stage, the tour was already a success. Nobody gave the Irish a chance of winning a single game, and suddenly they were on the verge of becoming the first northern hemisphere team to win a series in South Africa since the British & Irish Lions in 1997.
I put this to Schmidt at a press conference in Johannesburg in the build-up to the second Test.
Could Ireland afford to hold a few tactics and perhaps even a few players back ahead of a potential series decider in PE?
Or should they go all in for the second Test, at the risk of exhausting themselves ahead of a potential decider in the third?
Schmidt didn’t miss a beat, declaring that Ireland were in it to win it. Privately, he and his coaches may have felt otherwise.
The Boks came back in the second half of the contest at Ellis Park to win the game and level the series.
The decider in PE was a proper grind, however, with the Boks winning 19-13 and clinching the series 2-1.
Ireland toured South Africa again in 2024, this time with Andy Farrell at the helm.
Of the two matches in Pretoria and Durban, history suggested that the tourists would pose a greater threat on the coast than on the Highveld.
As the tour unfolded, it emerged that the Irish – who were without a clutch of first-choice players, were targeting the second clash at Kings Park.
It took a late drop goal by Ciaran Frawley to seal victory, but Ireland got what they came for, namely a win on South African soil.
The series was shared, but Ireland treated it as a success, while the Boks viewed it as a disappointment.
While it may be unfair to compare those teams to a Wallabies side ranked sixth in the world, there are some similarities in terms of personnel and circumstances.
Schmidt – who has been part of Ireland and New Zealand coaching teams on previous tours to South Africa – will be at the helm of Australia this time round.
The two matches against the Boks will be staged in Johannesburg and Cape Town, and the Wallabies will be underdogs in both fixtures.
What does a successful tour result look like for Schmidt’s charges, who recently claimed a pride-salvaging win at Sydney against the Lions?
One win out of two would be a statement, in the context of the current season and the 14 that have come before.
While history shows how the Wallabies have struggled in South Africa during the professional era, most of their wins in this period have come on the coast.
It may be braver to push for a win at Ellis Park, but it wouldn’t necessarily be smarter.
Two-to-three-match tours, especially those staged in vastly different conditions in a country like South Africa, require careful planning and management, and again, history shows how hard it’s been for visiting sides to win one match, let alone two or three.
Publicly, Schmidt may talk about the opportunity at Ellis Park – and make no mistake, a Wallabies win here would be monumental.
The reality is that Schmidt and co are likely to focus on the latter fixture, which should be more closely contested due to the wintry conditions in Cape Town.
Erasmus should adjust his plans accordingly. He is nothing if not a student of rugby history, and is loath to repeat his predecessors’ mistakes.
The Boks will be going all out to claim a bonus-point win at Ellis Park this week – repeating the performances in 2023 and 2019 against the Wallabies on the Highveld.
Five log points will ensure that they start their Rugby Championship title defence on a dominant note, and give themselves a bit of leeway ahead of the more challenging matches that follow in Cape Town, Auckland and Wellington.
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