The domino effect of England's Murrayfield nightmare
OPINION: Defeat to Scotland exposed physical and mental shortcomings that bode badly for the remainder of England’s 2026 Test campaign.
It’s been a decade since England were one of the best Test teams in the world.
Back in 2016, Eddie Jones revived England after a disastrous World Cup campaign at home and steered them to back-to-back Six Nations titles.
England bossed every nation bar the All Blacks over the 2016 and 2017 seasons, and while Jones was never liked by the British media, there was a universal appreciation for what the team achieved during that period in terms of results and titles. A record-equalling run of 18-consecutive Test wins is certainly nothing to sneer at.
After Steve Borthwick’s side won four out of five matches in the 2025 Six Nations, and backed those results up with further wins against Argentina, Australia and New Zealand, it seemed as if England were on the verge of another golden era.
England extended their winning run to 12 matches after completing a resounding 48-7 victory against Wales in the opening round of the 2026 Six Nations.
It feels like a long time ago – but in the wake of that win against Wales, many started to hype the round five meeting between England and France in Paris as a potential tournament and Grand Slam decider.
What’s more, South African rugby fans started to wonder what it might mean for the Nations Championship meeting between the Springboks and England on July 4.
If England won the Grand Slam, could they beat South Africa in Johannesburg, as well as Fiji and Argentina in subsequent weeks?
With 19 consecutive Test wins, could they displace Jones’ side as the most consistent England side in recent seasons and perhaps surpass the Boks at the top of the World Rugby rankings?
There’s still a lot of rugby to be played in the coming months, but it’s fair to say that the dreams of dominance and winning streaks are well and truly over.
Scotland were written off by all and sundry ahead of the Calcutta Cup fixture this past Saturday.
Nobody believed that Scotland – in the wake of their 15-18 defeat to Italy in Rome – could beat England, let alone by 11 points.
Following the 31-20 result at Murrayfield, England’s bubble has burst, and they have dropped down the World Rugby rankings to fourth place.
Meanwhile, France have claimed their second-successive bonus-point victory, after hammering Wales 54-12 in Cardiff on Sunday – and have surpassed England at the top of the Six Nations table, and have risen above Borthwick’s side in the global rankings.
Nobody will underestimate Italy and Scotland after the first two rounds of the Six Nations, but one would expect France – given their current form – to win those matches in the coming weeks and head into the fifth-round clash against England with one hand on the trophy.
Coach Fabien Galthié came in for criticism after he omitted senior players like Gregory Alldritt, Gael Fickou and Damian Penaud in his initial Six Nations squad – yet a younger France outfit has led the way across most metrics in the opening rounds.
The attack has been on fire, racking up 90 points and 13 tries in two matches – but credit should also go to defence coach Shaun Edwards and kicking guru Vlok Cilliers.
The French tryline has been breached on just four occasions, while the sharp kicking of Antoine Dupont, Matthieu Jalibert and Thomas Ramos has been at the heart of the team’s tactical success.
Suddenly, France are on a roll, and best placed to build a substantial streak.
They’ve won four matches on the bounce, and could extend that run to seven by the end of the Six Nations.
Given what happened at Murrayfield this past week, there is no danger of Les Bleus underestimating Scotland in future rounds.
Indeed, every Test coach should heed the lessons that accompanied that monumental result.
On the one hand, it showcased the threat of Scotland when their back row and halfbacks are on song.
Flyhalf Finn Russell was outstanding in terms of how he managed the game, while the South African-born winger Kyle Steyn was another key contributor.
On the other, it highlighted the dangers of complacency.
England went into the match with the wrong mindset. They failed to meet the physical and defensive standards that marked them as one of the best teams in the world last season and were blown away as a result.
Borthwick should be concerned by the lack of accuracy in high-pressure moments and a patent lack of discipline.
The leadership will be under scrutiny in the coming weeks, given that England never recovered from the early setbacks.
Every team has a bad game now and then, but the best – such as the great All Blacks side of the 2010s and the current Bok team – find a way to stay in the contest.
The coming match against Ireland was always going to be significant, given that England lost to Andy Farrell’s side last season.
Due to Ireland’s struggles in recent weeks, as well as England’s loss at Murrayfield, the game in London will be viewed as a watershed for both teams.
One of these teams is going to finish the third round with a one-in-three record. That outcome will compromise their Six Nations title ambitions, especially if France beat a plucky Italy side in Lille on Sunday.
Even if England win this weekend, they will still have everything to prove.
Among the big questions asked in recent weeks is whether England have what it takes to win marquee games away from home.
They failed that test in Edinburgh last week and will have to wait until Round Five until their next big away challenge when they visit the Stade de France on March 14.
The biggest question is whether this England side can translate all of that talent and potential into a meaningful trophy and truly challenge the world order.
The performance against Scotland suggests not, and the result in Edinburgh may well prevent them from staying in touch with France in the race for the Six Nations title.
