Pacific Nations Cup, Round Three - Teams and Predictions
PREVIEW: The Pacific Nations Cup 2025 enters its decisive third week with semifinal qualification still wide open.
As the pool phase reaches its climax, only Fiji has secured a place in the final four, ensuring a thrilling weekend ahead.
Every match in week three will play a critical role in determining which nations advance and move one step closer to not only Pacific Nations Cup glory, but Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 qualification.
*The maths for Samoa as they head into the deciding match of Pool A against Fiji is simple.
A simple win isn’t enough. They need five points to overtake Tonga, book a semifinal place in Denver, Colorado, and guarantee that their run of continuous World Cup appearances dating back to 1991 continues.
Even if Samoa lose, however, their World Cup hopes are not over. Next weekend’s fifth-place play-off, against the team that finishes bottom of Pool B, also comes with an Australian golden ticket for the winner, while the side that finishes sixth faces a two-leg play-off against the losing finalist of the Sudaméricano 2025.
Uruguay hold a first-leg advantage over Chile in that final. The second, decisive match in Montevideo is this weekend.
The winner of the South America/Pacific play-off qualifies for Rugby World Cup 2027, while the losing side heads to the Final Qualification Tournament in Dubai in November.
Win or lose, then, Samoa still have plenty of chances to qualify for the tournament in Australia in two years’ time. But they will be keen to ensure they have a spot at the earliest opportunity.
Defending Pacific Nations Cup champions Fiji, however, have no intention of giving up their title and will look to improve on their four-try win over Tonga last weekend.
The Flying Fijians’ head coach, Mick Byrne highlighted areas Fiji have been working to improve following that performance in Suva.
“We were a bit loose in our breakdown and ball carries, [it’s a] great opportunity for us to work on that and present ourselves better in the next game,” he told journalists.
*After their defeat against Canada in Calgary in week one, the USA – who missed out on qualification for Rugby World Cup 2023 – find themselves in a similar situation to Samoa as they prepare to face Japan in Sacramento this weekend.
With both Canada and Japan level on five points in Pool B, USA need a big win of their own and must deny Japan a bonus point if they are to have a chance of qualifying for the semi-finals in Denver, otherwise the fifth-place play-off against the side that finishes bottom of Pool A awaits.
Loose forward Jason Damm steps into the captain’s role as Benjamin Bonasso sits out in Sacramento. Paddy Ryan and Luke Carty also join the camp for the first time this year, while Ruben de Haas returns to the starting scrumhalf position.
But Japan head coach Eddie Jones has already set out the Brave Blossoms’ stall in this year’s tournament. The losing finalists in 2024, he said, want to go one better this time around. They will be full of confidence after their record-breaking 57-15 victory over Canada in Sendai last weekend.
Japan’s second-half performance against Canada in Sendai last weekend, when they pulled away from a 17-10 lead at the break to win 57-15, scoring six tries in the final 40 to get their bid for this year’s Pacific Nations Cup title off to a winning start.
Jones blamed opening match rust for the Brave Blossoms’ slow start to the tournament, telling RugbyPass TV immediately after the match: “We were really poor in the first half, but sometimes when it’s your first game of the tournament, that can happen.”
On a decisive weekend, he will look for his side to get out of the blocks much faster.
See below for Round Three’s teams and predictions!
Saturday, September 6:
Samoa v Fiji
(Rotorua International Stadium, Rotorua – Kick-off: 15.00; 03.00 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Fiji by 19 points.
Teams:
Samoa: 15 Lolagi Visinia, 14 Elisapeta Alofipo, 13 Melani Nanai, 12 Henry Taefu, 11 Tuna Tuitama, 10 Rodney Iona, 9 Joel Lam, 8 Iakopo Petelo-Map, 7 Alamanda Motuga, 6 Taleni Seu, 5 Michael Curry, 4 Ben Nee-Nee, 3 Michael Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Pita Anae Ah-Su, 1 Aki Seiuli.
Replacements: 16 Luteru Tolai, 17 Jarred Adams, 18 Bradley Amituanai, 19 Olajuwon Noa, 20 Malaesaili Elato, 21 Connor Tupai, 22 AJ Alatimu, 23 Tomasi Alosio.
Fiji: 15 Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula, 14 Kalaveti Ravouvou, 13 Tuidraki Samusamuvodre, 12 Seta Tamanivalu, 11 Ponipate Loganimasi, 10 Caleb Muntz, 9 Simione Kuruvoli, 8 Elia Canakaivata, 7 Kitione Salawa, 6 Etonia Waqa, 5 Temo Mayanavanua, 4 Isoa Nasilasila, 3 Samu Tawake, 2 Tevita Ikanivere (captain), 1 Haereiti Hetet.
Replacements: 16 Zuriel Togiatama, 17 Meli Tuni, 18 Mesake Doge, 19 Mesake Vocevoce, 20 Motikiai Murray, 21 Philip Baselala, 22 Kemueli Valetini, 23 Taniela Rakuro.
Referee: Takehito Namekawa (Japan)
Assistant referees: Angus Mabey (New Zealand), Katsuki Furuse (Japan)
TMO: Richard Kelly (New Zealand)
USA v Japan
(Heart Health Park, Sacramento – Kick-off: 18.05; 10.05 JST Sunday, September 7; 01.05 GMT Sunday, September 7)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Japan by 25 points.
Teams:
USA: 15 Erich Storti, 14 Rufus McLean, 13 Dominic Besag, 12 Tavite Lopeti, 11 Toby Fricker, 10 Christopher Hilsenbeck, 9 Ruben de Haas, 8 Makeen Alikhan, 7 Christian Poidevin, 6 Paddy Ryan, 5 Jason Damm (captain), 4 Marno Redelinghuys, 3 Kaleb Geiger, 2 Kapeli Pifeleti, 1 Ezekiel Lindenmuth.
Replacements: 16 Shilo Klein, 17 Payton Telea, 18 Kullen Davis, 19 Tevita Naqali, 20 Vili Helu, 21 Ethan McVeigh, 22 Luke Carty, 23 Mitch Wilson.
Japan: 15 Sam Greene, 14 Kippei Ishida, 13 Dylan Riley, 12 Charlie Lawrence, 11 Tomoki Osada, 10 Seungsin Lee, 9 Kenta Fukuda, 8 Amato Fakatava, 7 Kanji Shimokawa, 6 Ben Gunter, 5 Warner Dearns (captain), 4 Waisake Raratubua, 3 Shuhei Takeuchi, 2 Hayate Era, 1 Kenta Kobayashi.
Replacements: 16 Kenji Sato, 17 Sena Kimura, 18 Keijiro Tamefusa, 19 Akito Okui, 20 Faulua Makisi, 21 Shinobu Fujiwara, 22 Yuya Hirose, 23 Haruto Kida.
Referee: Craig Evans (Wales)
Assistant referees: Damian Schneider (Argentina), Robin Kaluzniak (Canada)
TMO: Tual Trainini (France)
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