When the 'numbers' don't add up
STAT ATTACK: South Africa beat France 32-17 in an epic encounter at Stade de France at the weekend. That is the undeniable fact.
However, to appropriate a shibboleth popularised by Samuel Langhorne Clemens, known by the pen name Mark Twain, there are ‘lies, damned lies, and statistics’.
It is the latter we will avail ourselves of.
The Springboks came back from deficits of 0-7 and 6-14, to narrow the gap to 13-14, before Lood de Jager was red-carded in the 38th minute (that’s a subject for another time).
Despite being a man up for 30 minutes (Louis Bielle-Biarrey was yellow-carded in the 62nd minute), France managed just three points in the second half.
The Boks scored three glorious tries and dominated the scoreboard.
However, the match statistics suggested that Les Bleus was the better team.
In the first 30 minutes, the hosts were superior.
But then Boks were galvanised by a red card to Lood de Jager.
The rest, as they say, is history.
But let’s take a peek at those fabled statistics.
Let us start with possession (52 percent in France’s favour) and territory (56 percent in France’s favour).
It was even more slanted in that first half-hour, when Les Bleus led 14-5 and had more than 60 percent of the possession and territory.
The home team had the ball on attack for 16 minutes and 42 seconds. They scored two tries, both in the opening 30 minutes.
The visitors had the ball on attack for 16 minutes and six seconds. They scored four tries, three in the second half when they Boks had more possession and territory.
It gets even more intriguing.
France had 103 carries, for 532 metres (just over five metres per carry), 140 passes, 15 offloads, 18 handling errors and 13 turnovers conceded.
In contrast, the Boks 87 carries for 515 metres (just under six metres per carry), 95 passes, nine offloads, 12 handling errors and 11 turnovers conceded.
France made 93 tackles and missed 15 (86 percent completion rate), as opposed to SA’s 88 and 22 missed (80 percent).
Les Bleus conceded 13 penalties to the Boks’ seven, with a yellow card (10 minutes without 15 players) and a red for the Boks (42 minutes without their full quota).
France won 71 rucks and lost just two, the Boks won 61 rucks and lost five, an aspect where France were more physical and superior in the first half.
Apart from the scoreboard, the aspects where the South Africans were superior were the set pieces. SA won 100 percent of their set pieces, but won a couple of scrum penalties and also stole a crucial line-out from Les Bleus.
France’s goalkicking was 100 percent, but South Africa missed three of their eight attempts at goal.
What these stats don’t tell you and will never tell you is that physicality can’t be measured.
The Boks are masters at bullying the opposition into submission and killing off their rivals in the final 20 minutes.
Take the pack. Malcolm Marx, Thomas du Toit, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese have been around the proverbial block many times.
They know it means to be in a deep, dark pit in crucial games and what it requires to get out of it.
That quality Bok IP can’t be bought anywhere, and the back-to-back World Cup champions don’t panic, with three one-point wins in the 2023 play-offs as proof.
South Africa scored four tries from just five entries to the 22, averaging 5.2 points per entry compared to France’s 1.56 point average from nine entries.
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has carried for 82 metres from 12 carries, but the real winners were Jasper Wiese (18 carries for 39 metres, plus seven tackles), Pieter-Steph du Toit (a match-high 12 tackles) and Thomas du Toit (with two crucial turnovers to go with his scrummaging power).
That is why the ‘numbers’ don’t add up!
@rugby365com
