Why Boks' Bomb Squad is 'overrated'

The All Blacks are one of the few top international teams to resist moving to a 6-2 or 7-1 bench arrangement, instead preferring three backs.

South Africa started the recent trend, using their strength and depth up front to field two packs over the 80 minutes, while France has found success moving in a similar vein towards a forward-heavy bench.

They claimed this year’s Six Nations title by beating title contenders Ireland with a 7-1 bench.

It was in the last half an hour that France pulled away, injecting most of their bench forwards in the 48th minute.

The All Blacks have lost their last three against France and last four against South Africa, suggesting there is a problem with New Zealand’s approach.

At least on the surface, it suggests so, but the context of those games paints a different picture.

None of these contests have been played in New Zealand. Home-field advantage has skewed the nature of those results. New Zealand has a historical 72 percent win rate over South Africa at home and an 87 percent win rate over France on home soil.

Just one of the last 10 All Blacks-Springboks games has been in New Zealand, a ridiculous skew that has favoured the Springboks during the 2020s so far.

The All Blacks also played two of those four losses with 14 men, with a first-half red card determining the result early.

So while the Boks’ bomb squad looked great at Twickenham in 2023, they were playing a side that lost their tight head prop to injury after 13 minutes, lost Scott Barrett for the entirety, and had brother Jordie Barrett playing flank at scrum time. Not to mention the All Blacks’ bench was stacked with inexperienced, young forwards.

The 7-1 bomb squad had no impact in the World Cup final, where a 14-man All Black team ran all over South Africa. The most hollow of victories followed for the Boks, clinging onto a one-point win after two missed kicks at goal by New Zealand.

Without considering the context, the 7-1 bench looked like a masterstroke, but reality was far from that.

The one game where South Africa’s bench swayed the contest was last year’s Ellis Park Test, where the All Blacks held a 27-17 lead heading into the final quarter. That result was arguably determined by the All Blacks’ bench, who lacked execution in the final stretch.

Of France’s three victories, two were with a 6-2 split, while their pool stage win in 2023 was done with a 5-3 split. In 2024, there was just one point between the sides. All three of those contests were at Stade de France.

The sample size above is skewed too much to conclude the theory that the bomb squad has been the decisive factor.

There are also internal reasons why the All Blacks don’t need a bomb squad.

The first reason is that they have Ardie Savea.

Savea is an 80-minute player that you want on the field for the entire game. He can play No.8 and openside and move to one position or the other to finish a game.

The best use of the 2023 World Player of the Year is having him in the contest, not taking him off for a fresh forward of lesser ability.

What Savea can produce, no one else can.

Now, suddenly, Wallace Sititi has also emerged. He’s also an 80-minute player. Would you rather have Savea and Sititi on the field or off it? Most would say on.

The All Blacks don’t need an extra forward on the bench because of these two, but they do need to have better players waiting in the wings to come into the game in other specific positions.

The 2015 All Blacks side had a great bench. It had world-class quality through 1-15, but also from 16-23 with players like Keven Mealamu, Sam Cane, Victor Vito, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett and Sonny Bill Williams. As a 23, it was a complete team with plenty of experience, despite having five forwards and three backs.

The 2024 All Blacks side didn’t have that, while the 2023 side didn’t really, either.

For the All Blacks to produce the best 23 they can by 2027 with a 5-3 split, they need depth at halfback and first five. The 5-3 split hinges on having great halves that can either raise the tempo or manage a game to close out a result.

That means the All Blacks must bring back Richie Mo’unga from Japan, a player with two Rugby World Cup campaigns under his belt and who is one of the best No.10s in the world.

Mo’unga, Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie bring the kind of depth and experience they need to run an effective 5-3 bench, with insurance for one going down with injury.

Scrumhalf is the more problematic position. Cam Roigard is the clear No.1 but has only 10 Test caps despite debuting in 2023. Cortez Ratima has 11 Test caps and again needs more experience by 2027. Neither of them has enough experience. The third scrumhalf is up for grabs, which is a problem as just one injury would throw another inexperienced candidate in.

Ratima needs to prove it at Test level by closing out the big games, directing the side, which he hasn’t. They were in a position to win at Ellis Park and failed, the same in Paris against France. Again, it will hopefully come to him with experience.

This was the biggest issue with Finlay Christie as the reserve scrumhalf under Foster. For all of his defensive prowess, he couldn’t execute. A box kick would get charged down and put his side under pressure. Coming in with 20 minutes to go in a tight Test match requires zero execution errors from the halfback. Christie was always shaky, and mistakes always seemed to follow him.

The All Blacks don’t need a flashy running No.9 off the bench. They need security with someone who can put a pinpoint box kick on a dime every time, pass the ball into the bread basket every time, and ultimately control and dictate terms in a game. They need someone who just delivers.

Instead of flip-flopping between Roigard and Ratima as the starter, one needs to take the starting role, and one has to become a finisher and become a master at playing the game situation. Most of TJ Perenara’s Test career was as a finisher, in a defined role that he built experience in.

They both need to stay healthy, which has been difficult as both are running No.9s, which puts them at a higher risk. Roigard already had a serious injury last year.

The All Blacks coaching staff need to figure out the halfback situation and build enough depth to solve the 5-3 problem. That’s the heart of the issue.

In terms of the forwards, picture a starting loose forward trio of Shannon Frizell at No.6 (currently in Japan), Ardie Savea at openside and Wallace Sititi at No.8 and a starting lock pair of Tupou Vaa’i and Scott Barrett.

That allows for a bench that features Patrick Tuipulotu at lock and either Luke Jacobson, Dalton Papalii, Samipeni Finau or Peter Lakai as the flex loose forward reserve to replace Frizell or cover injury to the other. That’s enough experience to have a great bench when everyone is healthy.

The All Blacks can win the Rugby World Cup again in 2027 with a 5-3 bench, but it will require developing two world-class halfbacks first and foremost.

They don’t need more forwards on the bench with the talent they have.

@RugbyPass