Ireland v South Africa - teams and prediction

PREVIEW: We get a delectable noisette of what the World Cup will be like, when Ireland host South Africa at Lansdowne Road on Saturday.

Both teams admitted they are already casting an eye to the World Cup, hoping to ‘make a statement’ a year out from the global showpiece.

Both Ireland captain Johnny Sexton and Springbok coach Jacques Nienaber referenced next year’s global showpiece when asked about the importance of this Saturday’s Dublin face-off.

There will be doubts if either team will fully show their hand, but a win on Saturday will give the victors a sound launch pad.

It is the ideal opportunity to test your systems on the international stage, gauge where you are at and what needs to improve.

Ireland start as favourites, based on their form this year – with just two losses, to Grand Slam champions France (24-30) in the Six Nations and New Zealand (19-42) in the first Test, before winning the next two to take the July series.

Ireland coach Andy Farrell said the Springboks will present a different challenge to what the All Blacks offered.

“It will help us down the track 100 percent,” Farrell said.

“They will play to their strengths and they are a world-class side.”

He also touched on the fact that the two teams are in the same World Cup pool, saying there will be lessons learned at Lansdowne Road.

“The team that loses, I think, will learn a little bit more as in which direction to take both in play and personnel terms,” the Ireland coach said.

The Bok coach spoke about Ireland’s ‘multi-phased’ attack, hence the need for two ‘fetchers’ on the bench in Deon Fourie and Albertus Smith.

He also spoke of Ireland’s threats ‘across the board’, saying there is a reason why they are currently ranked No.1 in the world – having beaten the All Blacks in New Zealand for the first time.

“I think they have a well-balanced game,” Nienaber told @rugby365com.

“Everybody knows about their attack and how well they keep the ball in hand.

“However, they are the best defensive side in the world – conceding the least tries and the least points.”

(Preview continues below video …)

He added that the game presents the “ideal challenge” for the Springboks with a view to next year’s World Cup.

“It is a nice challenge a year out from the World Cup, knowing we will face them in the pool stages,” he said of the two teams being grouped together in Pool B at #France2023.

Ireland has won six of their last 10 games against South Africa, including a comprehensive drubbing of the Boks in their last outing.

Ireland’s 35-point margin in the 38-3 victory against South Africa in 2017 was their biggest ever against the Springboks.

Ireland won 14 of their last 16 Test matches, including their last two.

The Dublin hosts are currently on a run of nine straight victories at home and have conceded just seven points or fewer in each of their last four home games.

Only once before has Ireland won more than nine home fixtures in a row – 12 between November 2016 and November 2018.

South Africa won their last three Test matches, their longest winning run since recording four straight victories between July and August 2021.

Four of the Springboks’ last five Test victories have come by margins of exactly 16 points.

Eight of South Africa’s last 10 year-end international matches have been decided by single-digit margins, including five by just three points or fewer.

Ireland was the top points scorers in this year’s Six Nations (168) and also averaged more possession (56 percent) and a greater share of territory (57 percent) than any other side in the Championship.

South Africa was awarded more penalties than any other side in this year’s Rugby Championship (93) and also conceded fewer penalties than any other side in the competition (68).

Players to watch

For Ireland: The return of Conor Murray, who will become the eighth Irish player to reach the 100 caps landmark, will have a massive impact on the game. The 33-year-old scrum-half gets the opportunity as Jamison Gibson-Park, the man who has replaced him as first choice, has yet to play this term due to a hamstring problem. It is Murray’s first start since the victory over Argentina last November and only his second since the 2021 Six Nations match with England. His selection reunites him at half-back with his long-time Test partner Johnny Sexton, the Ireland captain. Gibson-Park, who was instrumental in Ireland’s historic Test series win over his fellow New Zealanders in July, is on the bench. The only other significant change in the starting line-up is the selection of Ulster wing Robert Balacoune, who gets the nod as James Lowe is injured.

For South Africa: World Cup magician Cheslin Kolbe will start his first Test fullback, having made 16 of his 20 Test appearance on the wing and four off the bench. He also covers flyhalf. Kurt-Lee Arendse will wear the No.14 jersey, as coach Jacques Nienaber made three changes to the team that started a 38-21 Rugby Championship victory over Argentina in Durban two months ago. Arendse takes over from injured Canaan Moodie and utility back Damian Willemse comes in at flyhalf for Francois Steyn, another Springbok sidelined by injury. Willemse got the playmaker role because first choice Handre Pollard is recovering from a knee operation and understudy Elton Jantjies is dealing with personal problems. There are two changes to the bench from Durban – with Willie le Roux replacing Arendse and Deon Fourie called up in place of veteran Duane Vermeulen, who is being rested and not part of the squad.

Head to head

Prediction

@rugby365com: Ireland by nine points

Teams

Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Robert Baloucoune, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Mack Hansen, 10 Johnny Sexton (captain), 9 Conor Murray, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 James Ryan, 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Kieran Treadwell, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Jamison Gibson-Park, 22 Joey Carbery, 23 Jimmy O’Brien.

South Africa: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, , 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Lodewyk de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 17 Retshegofaditswe Nche, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Deon Fourie, 21 Albertus Smith, 22 Francois de Klerk, 23 Willie le Roux.

Date: Saturday, November 5
Venue: Lansdowne Road Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 17.30 (19.30 SA time; 17.30 GMT)
Expected weather: Some rain in the morning, but after a cloudy start, sunshine returns. High of 13°C, low of 8°C
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)
Assistant referees: Mathieu Raynal (France), Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Stuart Terheege (England

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* Statistics provided by Opta Facts