Preview: Ireland v Italy

The return of the inspirational captain Sergio Parisse has handed the Italians a timely boost for a game where a defeat would definitively smash their hopes of reaching the last eight.

Parisse missed their defeat by France and an unimpressive win over Canada as he recovered from an operation to drain a haematoma in a calf. 

For the Irish – one of the two teams on maximum possible points after making short work of Canada and Romania – Parisse is the one player capable of lifting Italy to an upset.

Ireland coach Joe Schmidt has also had to rejig his backline, replacing injured centre Jared Payne with Keith Earls and fullback Rob Kearney with Simon Zebo.

Schmidt called his Italy counterpar Jacques Brunel an "astute man." 

"I have coached teams against him in the Top 14 and come out second a number of times.

"I've a lot of respect for him and only he will know how fit Sergio is.

"We all know the value he brings to a team, but we have prepared as if he will be there."

Brunel may have gambled by pitching No.8 Parisse into the fray but he will be reunited with another loose forward Simone Favaro, who also has had fitness problems, with whom he has an impressive record.

Italy have won three of the last four Tests when Parisse and Favaro started together, a sequence that began with Italy's first Six Nations win over Ireland, 22-15, in Rome in 2013.

That defeat – before Schmidt took over – haunts the Irish squad.

"I definitely haven’t forgotten it as it was a massive learning curve for me," said lock Iain Henderson, who will partner captain Paul O'Connell in the engine room of the scrum.

"Maybe Italy teams before that might have rolled over after a good performance in the first half.

"But as we’ve seen here, with upsets and teams playing so well, a lot of the World Cup games teams aren’t rolling over as easily."

Despite enforced changes in the backs, the Irish have plenty of firepower in Earls, who with seven tries needs just one more to become their all-time top World Cup try scorer, and veteran wing Tommy Bowe. Bowe and Earls each scored two tries in the win against Romania last Sunday and gets a chance because of Zebo being switched to fullback.

Brunel is not sure how long Parisse will last, which will be a relief to Ireland.

"He is the captain, he is a great player and so that makes him important for us," said Brunel, who steps down after the tournament.

"It is important for him to be able to play a World Cup and he fought hard to be back.

"He wants to have a good World Cup. It is important for him and important for us."

Brunel said his players needed to improve in the line-out if they were to have a chance of upsetting Ireland.   

"It is crucial that we win our own ball to be able to play our best," said Brunel.

"We didn’t do that in our last two matches against Ireland, when we made 240 tackles in 2014 and 219 in 2015. That can’t happen again."

Brunel, though, retains belief his troops can raise their game.

"I am convinced that we can win, but up until now we haven’t been able to play the rugby that we were expecting."

Players to watch:

For Ireland: Simon Zebo will be looking to impress at fullback in the absence of Rob Kearney, and there is also much expected of centre Robbie Henshaw who is making his first World Cup appearance while his midfield partner Keith Earls could become Ireland's top try-scorer in World Cup if he dots down. The halfback combination of Jonny Sexton and Conor Murray will look to control matters behind the highly physical loose trio of Jamie Heaslip, Sean O'Brien and Peter O'Mahony. Paul O'Connell will set the tone up front and in the scrums Mike Ross will provide the anchor.

For Italy: All of the attention is focused on returning skipper Sergio Parisse who is expected to galvanise the team. Leonardo Sarto will be dangerous out wide and scrumhalf Edoardo Gori will ask questions around the fringes. Big Quintin Geldenhuys will be the key man in the line-outs and in the scrums tighthead Lorenzo Cittadini will want to show what he can do in the absence of Martin Castrogiovanni.

Head to head: Dave Kearney should have his hands full up against Leonardo Sarto on the wing, and closer in Tommaso Allan will have to try and keep Jonny Sexton in check. Jamie Heaslip and Sergio Parisse are both fearsome operators at the back of the scrum and Sean O'Brien and Simone Favaro will battle for the ball on the ground. Quintin Geldenhuys should have a fierce battle with Paul O'Connell and at scrum-time Matias Aguero will have to show he can stand up to the experienced Mike Ross.

Recent results:

2015: Ireland won 26-3, Rome

2014: Ireland won 46-7, Dublin

2013: Italy won 22-15, Rome

2012: Ireland won 42-10, Dublin

2011: Ireland won 36-6, Dunedin (World Cup pool match)

2011: Ireland won 13-11, Rome

2010: Ireland won 29-11, Dublin

2009: Ireland won 38-9, Rome

2008: Ireland won 16-11, Dublin

2007: Ireland won 23-20, Belfast

2007: Ireland won 51-24, Rome

Prediction: Italy will put up a fight, but Ireland should have enough to win this one by about 10 points.

Teams:

Ireland: 15 Simon Zebo, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Paul O'Connell (captain), 4 Iain Henderson, 3  Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Jack McGrath.

Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Nathan White, 19 Devin Toner, 20 Chris Henry, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Luke Fitzgerald.

Italy: 15 Luke McLean, 14 Leonardo Sarto, 13 Michele Capagnaro, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Giovanbattista Venditti, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (captain), 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Francesco Minto, 5 Josh Furno, 4 Quintin Geldenhuys, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Andrea Manici, 1 Matias Aguero.     

Replacements: 16 Davide Giazzon, 17 Michele Rizzo, 18 Dario Chistolini, 19 Alessandro Zanni, 20 Mauro Bergamasco, 21 Guglielmo Palazzani, 22 Carlo Canna, 23 Tommaso Benvenuti.

Date: Sunday, October 4

Venue: Olympic Stadium, London

Kick-off: 16.45 (15.45 GMT; 17.45 Italian time)

Predicted weather: Partly cloudy but dry, high of 19, 15 kph wind

Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)

Assistant referees: Pascal Gauzère (France), Angus Gardner (Australia)

TMO: Graham Hughes (England)