Wales v Italy - Teams and Prediction
SIX NATIONS, ROUND FIVE: Wales may be on a 15-game losing streak in the Six Nations, but it would sum up an unpredictable 2026 Championship were they to beat Italy in their tournament finale.
Italy were the last team to lose to Wales in the Six Nations, on March 11, 2023 and come Saturday’s kick-off in Cardiff, it will be 1,099 days since that result.
The Azzurri will arrive at the Principality Stadium buoyed by their inaugural win in 33 matches against England.
Italy displayed resilience as well as skill to overturn an eight-point deficit heading into the final quarter before triumphing 23-18 in Rome last weekend.
They are on the cusp of winning three games in a Six Nations for the first time, having started the tournament with an 18-15 victory at home to Scotland.
They might not have things all their own way against Wales.
The Welsh were routed 48-7 by England and 54-12 by France in the opening two rounds, but then led Scotland until late on before losing 23-26 and were within a score of Ireland until four minutes from time before going down 17-27 last weekend.
Welsh rugby, beset by bitter off-field wrangling over plans to cut one of the nation’s four professional men’s teams, is desperate for some good news.
But Wales coach Steve Tandy, asked after naming an unchanged starting side on Thursday, if the performance or result was more important against an in-form Italy, replied: “I think performance. If we get the performance, the result will follow.”
Carre’s ‘high ceiling’
The form of Saracens loosehead prop Rhys Carre has been a rare bright spot for Wales in a gruelling campaign, with former Cardiff and Wales flanker Ellis Jenkins telling the BBC: “He’s huge, he’s tall, he’s fast. He’s one of the strongest players I’ve ever seen.”
Carre was discarded on fitness grounds by two former Wales coaches, Wayne Pivac and Warren Gatland.
Rhys “The Rocket” Carré talks us through THAT try against Ireland! 🚀🏴#GuinnessM6N #Since1883 pic.twitter.com/ZFEDq1Dtmk
— Guinness Men’s Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) March 11, 2026
But in Dublin, the 28-year-old scored a sensational 30-metre try, his third in as many Six Nations games. Remarkably for a front-row forward, he had too much speed for Ireland wing Robert Baloucoune.
“It’s testament to Rhys and the beauty for a lot of our team is that the ceiling’s higher. We’ve just got to keep pushing and be better,” said Tandy.
That is exactly what Italy have done this Six Nations under coach Gonzalo Quesada, who took charge two years ago.
Their results are also a tribute to the development policy established by former boss Conor O’Shea, the ex-Ireland fullback who is now the performance director of England’s Rugby Football Union.
For all Italy boast a formidable pack, as well as the attacking talents of midfield duo Juan Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello, former Argentina flyhalf Quesada has warned Italy to be mentally ready for “the toughest game of the whole Six Nations”.
He added: “We know that Wales must win this game, they must win it, they did an amazing performance against Ireland, they did an amazing performance against Scotland.
“Our players I think, are really aware of how tough this will be, so no one is talking about one win, two wins, three wins, it’s about let’s make sure that we’re ready because what is coming in Wales is big.”
Players to watch:
For Wales: Rhys Carre produced one of the highlights of the tournament last week with his sensational try against Ireland. Wales need star power to take the next step, and Carre could become that player. In the backline, Louis Rees-Zammit needs more ball to work with. He just has too much quality to kick the ball back to the opposition.
For Italy: Centre Tommaso Menoncello has caused plenty of problems for opposition defences in this year’s tournament and will surely keep the Welsh busy on Saturday. Prop Danilo Fischetti has played like a man possessed, and his battle with Tomas Franci in the scrums will be huge.
Prediction
Rugby365: Italy by six points.
Teams:
Wales: 15 Louis Rees-Zammit, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Eddie James, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 James Botham, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Ben Carter, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Rhys Carre.
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Adam Beard, 20 Olly Cracknell, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Blair Murray.
Italy: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Michele Lamaro (captain), 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Muhamed Hasa, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti.
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosuè Zilocchi, 19 Riccardo Favretto, 20 David Odiase, 21 Stephen Varney, 22 Leonardo Marin, 23 Tommaso Allan.
Date: Saturday, March 14
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 16.40 (17.40 CET; 16.40 GMT)
Expected weather: The roof will be closed.
Referee: Christophe Ridley (England)
Assistant referees: Matthew Carley (England), Eoghan Cross (Ireland)
TMO: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
AFP & @rugby365com
