Why the Boks must be wary of dark horse Italy

OPINION: Italy showed why they will pose a threat to the Springboks at the 2027 World Cup when they claimed a resounding win against Scotland in Rome this past Saturday.

Rassie Erasmus has a knack for predicting unlikely results.

Back in 2019, the Bok coach told anyone who would listen that Japan was on the rise, and that the team coached by Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown would qualify for the World Cup play-offs for the first time in history.

The Brave Blossoms went on to beat Ireland and Scotland, and finished at the top of Pool A.

In the lead-up to the quarterfinal showdown between Japan and South Africa in Tokyo, Erasmus repeated his previous warnings. In the end, the Boks were made to work for a 26-3 victory.

Fast forward to 2025, where Erasmus made another significant prediction about Italy.

The Azzurri toured Southern Africa in July without most of their first-choice players, and lost both Tests against the Boks.

Italy made a statement in the first match in Pretoria, however, when their youthful bench outscored the Bomb Squad during the second half.

Well before the 2027 World Cup draw was held in December – which culminated in the Boks joining Italy, Georgia and Romania in Pool B – Erasmus marked this Azzurri side as one to watch.

Gonzalo Quesada’s charges went on to beat Australia 26-19 in Udine, and to add substance to the claim that they were a team on the rise.

When the teams met for a third time in 2025, Italy took the fight to the Boks in Turin.

It was only in the latter stages where the visitors seized control of the contest, and eventually secured a 32-14 victory.

With all of the above in mind, some may have expected Italy to beat Scotland in the 2026 Six Nations opener – even though most betting markets listed Scotland as favourites.

Quesada has worked hard to develop this team – and indeed Italian rugby in general – since taking the coaching reins in January 2024.

The big clubs have improved, with Benetton claiming wins against Glasgow Warriors and Lyon earlier this season, and Zebre Parma downing Edinburgh and the Lions.

Perhaps those club results against Scottish teams paved the way for the 18-15 victory against the national side in Rome this past Saturday.

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And breathe 😮‍💨

Full time scenes in Rome 🤩#GuinnessM6N #Since1883 @Federugby pic.twitter.com/JiQTcO13PK

— Guinness Men’s Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) February 7, 2026

Italy showed that they have the tactical-kicking accuracy and attacking prowess to challenge any team on the planet.

Their defence, discipline and composure were particularly impressive in the dying stages of Saturday’s contest.

The big question – at least in the context of the year’s Six Nations – is whether they can go back-to-back in consecutive weeks.

Italy will travel to Dublin this coming Saturday to face an Ireland team with a point to prove.

Andy Farrell’s charges are hurting after a 14-36 loss to France in Paris, and will be desperate to bounce back.

And yet, a loss for Italy in Dublin would not erase what they achieved in Rome a week earlier.

The Boks, as well as other teams, will have noted where and how the Azzurri have improved.

At this stage, it’s hard to imagine the best Springbok side of all time losing to Italy.

But Erasmus is nothing if not careful, and will view that 2027 World Cup game in Adelaide as the most important of the pool campaign.

If all goes to plan, the Boks will top Pool B and face one of the third-placed teams from the other groups – possibly Tonga – in the Round of 16.

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Already, there is a buzz about a likely quarterfinal showdown between South Africa and New Zealand.

But if the Boks lose a pool match, they may finish as the runners-up of Pool B, and will have to play the winners of Pool F in the Round of 16.

England have been drawn with Wales, Tonga and Zimbabwe in Pool F, and will be overwhelming favourites to top that group.

In short, the Boks may face England if they lose a pool match.

Some will be quick to point out that the Boks lost a pool match in 2019 and 2023, and still managed to crack on and win both tournaments.

But in 2027, a new four-week play-off format will be introduced, and smart squad management will determine who maintains their effort over the course of that period and eventually lifts the trophy after the final in Sydney.

The Boks managed to survive a taxing 2023 World Cup play-off schedule that included consecutive fixtures against France, England and New Zealand.

With that in mind, Erasmus and company will want to avoid a scenario where the Boks play four of the leading teams or even hosts Australia in four consecutive weeks.

Some have suggested that “an easier” Round of 16 match against the likes of Tonga won’t prepare them for the battles that follow – but it will allow the Boks to rotate their squad with more demanding play-offs in mind.

The pool match against Italy in Adelaide – with all due respect to lower-ranked teams like Georgia and Romania – is therefore the key to a more favourable play-off draw.

Italy’s recent performances against Australia and Scotland have highlighted their threat.

They may not have the depth to win consecutive matches like the Boks or England, but as recent results show, they have the means to claim significant one-off victories.