South Africa v Japan - Teams and Prediction

PREVIEW: As much as there has been hype around the South Africa v Japan clash, it remains a warm-up game for the much bigger encounters coming up on the Springboks’ end-of-year tour.

That being France in Paris next Saturday, followed by Italy, Ireland, and Wales.

Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus has admitted next week’s team will look significantly different from the one running out under the arch at Wembley this weekend.

He will be keen to see how his new front-row rookie Zachary Porthen handles the biggest stage he has ever played on.

Three players will make a welcome return to the squad having last featured earlier in the season, while two others, who have not been involved so far in 2025, are back in the green and gold.

Kurt-Lee Arendse (wing), Franco Mostert (utility forward), and Lood de Jager (lock) reclaim their places in the starting XV after missing the last few matches due to injuries and a family bereavement.

Gerhard Steenekamp (prop) and Johan Grobbelaar (hooker) are back among the replacements after last featuring in the 2024 Outgoing Tour.

There can be no doubt that Japan will come out determined, and the Springboks will want to keep things tight in the early stages, establishing physical dominance to tap the energy of the Japanese.

Erasmus has loaded his side with a host of Japan-based players like Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Jasper Wiese, Kwagga Smith, Franco Mostert, Lood de Jager, and Malcolm Marx, while Arendse has played there too.

Some of them are quite proficient in Japanese and will be keeping their ears wide open to catch a rugby phrase here or there that might assist their team.

There’s no doubt that the Wembley crowd, with its fast hybrid pitch, will be treated to a spectacle – the dazzling footwork of Kolbe at fullback, the electric pace of Arendse on the wing, and, of course, the ever-popular Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu pulling the strings as the classy playmaker.

A strong, confident performance by the No.10 could strengthen his claim as a long-term contender at flyhalf.

Springboks captain Siya Kolisi will play his 99th Test for South Africa.

Centre Damian de Allende faced reporters in the build-up to the match, and he repeated the recurring theme that everyone in the Bok camp know how Japan has improved in terms of set phase and defence.

“Their set-piece has improved a lot. Their scrum has gotten better and their lineouts are going well. But the speed of the breakdown will be the most important thing we get right this weekend,” De Allende said.

“We’ve watched a lot of clips where their scrumhalf gets the ball out in less than a second. It will be important that we make our hits properly and legally, and we try and slow their ball down from that.”

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Jesse Kriel, who has scored 95 Test points in 84 appearances, needs just five more to reach his 100 in test rugby.  He echoed his midfield partner’s sentiments.

“Looking at our team selection, it shows that we’re serious about this game. A win is everything for us, and this is a very important match for our campaign.

“We’ve spoken about it a lot this week. There are tough games ahead, but we’re not looking past Japan.”

Although the Asian side will be coming in with more fluidity behind them after having played so recently, the matchday squad selected by Bok coach Rassie Erasmus should have far too much firepower for the Japanese to handle.

Eddie Jones has called on his Japan team to emulate the 2015 side that pulled off one of rugby union’s biggest shocks, beating South Africa in a game that became known as the “Miracle of Brighton”.

Jones included former South African forward Tyler Paul, who made his debut for Japan in last weekend’s 15-19 defeat to the Wallabies in Tokyo.

He represented the Southern Kings and the Sharks before he made the move to Japan in 2021, where he joined the Red Hurricanes.

In 2022, he joined the D-Rocks before switching to the Spears in 2024.

That is not the only South African connection in the Japan camp. Also donning the Brave Blossoms-branded clothing are two influential South African figures in former Bok assistant coach Gary Gold and World Cup-winner Victor Matfield, who joined Japan’s management team in recent months.

Japan will know South Africa’s strengths and weaknesses, and how to exploit them.

“In terms of the history of Japanese rugby, obviously, 10 years ago was a pretty symbolic game for Japan,” Jones said of the 2015 victory over the Boks.

“Now Japan, because of that game, gets the chance to play such quality Test matches: Australia last week, South Africa this week, Ireland, Wales, Georgia.

“It’s up to this team now to make sure that the legacy of what happened in 2015 is enhanced.

“The players understand the responsibility they have. They enjoy the responsibility. So, there’s a chance to show how much we can handle that responsibility.”

Jones added: “The opportunity is for this group of players to make their own headlines, and we want this group of players to enjoy the spotlight that’s going to be on them on Saturday and play with the cohesion and a physicality that’s never been seen.”

Jones said his players will back themselves more than in recent times.

“We know there’ll be a time where South Africa gets some momentum, they’ll get some possession, and that’ll be the test of our defence and ultimately, in that period of time when they do get momentum, the stature of the game, the state of the game, the result of the game, will depend on the quality of the defence,” the Australian said.

Ranked 13th in the world after a 4-3 win-loss ratio so far, Japan should not be a threat, but they have pushed opposition close in their defeats.

Players to watch:

For South Africa: With the hybrid pitch at Wembley geared for a fast-paced game, Springbok backs like Kolbe, Arendse, Ethan Hooker and the halfback combination of Feinbergh-Mngomezulu and Cobus Reinach should be a joy to watch. It would be interesting to see how rookie Zachary Porthen goes against a team that is not known for its scrumming prowess.

For Japan: Japan boasts some quality in their ranks, with the likes of winger Kippei Ishida, flanker Ben Gunter, and hooker Hayate Era all enjoying standout individual performances in the side’s narrow 15-19 defeat to a second-string Wallabies team in Tokyo last week.

Prediction:

@rugby365: South Africa by 20 points

Teams:

South Africa: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 RG Snyman, 3 Zachary Porthen, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Ruan Nortje, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok

Japan: 15 Yoshitaka Yazaki, 14 Kippei Ishida, 13 Dylan Riley, 12 Charlie Lawrence, 11 Tomoki Osada, 10 Lee Seung-sin, 9 Shinobu Fujiwara, 8 Michael Leitch, 7 Kanji Shimokawa, 6 Ben Gunter, 5 Warner Dearns, 4 Jack Cornelsen, 3 Shuhei Takeuchi, 2 Kenji Sato, 1 Kenta Kobayashi.
Replacements: 16 Shodai Hirao, 17 Ryosuke Iwaihara, 18 Keijiro Tamefusa, 19 Tyler Paul, 20 Faulua Makisi, 21 Kenta Fukuda, 22 Sam Greene, 23 Tiennan Costley.

Date: Saturday, November 1
Venue: Wembley Stadium, London
Kick-off: 16.10 (16.10 GMT; 18.10 SAST; 00.10 JST, Sunday, November 2)
Referee: Eoghan Cross (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keefe (New Zealand), Adam Leal (England)
TMO: Mike Adamson (Scotland)

@rugby365com & AFP