Bok backline balance a worry

OPINION: Rassie Erasmus appears to be placing all his chips on a dominant forward performance ahead of the Freedom Cup decider against the All Blacks in Wellington.

On Monday morning, Erasmus announced his Springbok team for the do-or-die clash against the All Blacks at the Cake Tin.

Changes were expected after the 17-24 loss at Eden Park, and yet, no one saw these selections coming.

Before getting into that line-up, it’s worth considering what’s at stake in Wellington on Saturday.

Over the past few months, Erasmus has spoken about building towards the 2027 World Cup and bolstering the squad’s depth by experimenting with younger players.

At the same time, he’s reiterated the importance of results, especially in marquee clashes against the All Blacks, France and Ireland over the course of the 2025 season.

Unfortunately, the opportunity to win at Eden Park has come and gone, and may never come again for this particular group of players.

The disappointment around that specific result will linger for some time.

That said, there’s still plenty on the line this week.

South Africa will retain the Freedom Cup if they win in Wellington, and will go into the last two rounds of the Rugby Championship with a chance of retaining the tournament title.

It’s also worth remembering that the Boks haven’t won on New Zealand soil since 2018.

They could edge ahead in the rivalry this weekend and take some meaningful momentum into the other big fixtures staged in Paris and Dublin this November.

And so, the big question: Has Erasmus picked a team that can tick all the boxes this weekend?

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SA Rugby set the tone last week, when the team was released under the headline: “Erasmus sticks to tried and tested combinations for All Blacks battle”.

A host of World Cup-winning veterans were selected, although there was still a strong balance between youth and experience.

This week, SA Rugby released the team under a contrasting header: “Erasmus names new-look backline for second All Black Test”.

At the subsequent media briefing, Erasmus highlighted the need for new energy, and waxed lyrical about the potential of an exciting back division.

The Bok coach has every reason to chop and change after such a disappointing result in Auckland.

But it’s interesting to note how many of the veterans have been axed – and how that’s hit the bottom line, in terms of total team caps.

Last week, the starting XV boasted 939 caps, with a further 206 shared by the Bomb Squad.

This week, the run-on side has 626 caps, while the bench has 193.

Veterans Eben Etzebeth (136), Willie le Roux (101), Damian de Allende (91), Handré Pollard (84) and Jesse Kriel (83) will play no part in the game at the Cake Tin.

While some of those omissions may be down to niggles, it’s a big call by Erasmus to wipe so much experience off the board – especially in the backline.

Last week’s backline boasted 434 caps, while the seven tasked with starting this Saturday have 173 – a remarkable difference of 261.

On the bench, Grant Williams, Manie Libbok and André Esterhuizen have won the World Cup as well as the Rugby Championship with the Boks, but are still relatively green with 22, 21 and 22 Test appearances respectively.

Let’s take a closer look at the pack.

Jasper Wiese was always going to be rushed back once his suspension expired – and for the first time this season, the first-choice back row combination of Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Siya Kolisi will start together, with the ‘first-choice’ Bomb Squad loose forward Kwagga Smith featuring from the bench.

That is a massive plus for the Boks.

Lood de Jager has been promoted to the starting lineup, although as a replacement for Eben Etzebeth at No 4.

Known for their jumping prowess and organisational abilities, De Jager and Ruan Nortje should boost the Bok line-out, but it remains to be seen who will replace Etzebeth in that highly effective kick-chasing role.

RG Snyman is an unsurprising selection on the bench, and will give the Boks’ different tactical options in the second half.

As a collective, the Boks appear to be going into the game with an out-and-out enforcer, which suggests they may attempt to outrun the All Blacks rather than fight them in the trenches.

Up front, Ox Nché, Malcolm Marx and Thomas du Toit will start together for the third consecutive match.

Overall, there is some continuity in selection when you consider that six of the eight forwards who started in Auckland have been retained in the run-on XV for Wellington.

The reserve front row is slightly different, with Jan-Hendrik Wessels moving to loosehead prop and Marnus van der Merwe coming in at hooker.

Van der Merwe has been outstanding for Scarlets at the set pieces and breakdowns this past season, and it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see him replacing Marx if the Boks struggle at the line-outs in Wellington.

Wilco Louw delivered a gargantuan scrummaging performance from the bench in Auckland, and should continue to make an impact at the Cake Tin.

There will be an opportunity for the Bok forwards to trouble the All Blacks this week, and to set an ideal platform for their backs.

Nevertheless, it feels as if Erasmus is gambling by making so many changes out wide.

While an argument could be made for the experience on the bench, the wholesale experimentation in the starting side seems unnecessary.

At a glance, the combination of Cobus Reinach, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Ethan Hooker, Willemse, Canan Moodie, Cheslin Kolbe and Aphelele Fassi is stacked with attacking potential.

But how will those players, individually and as part of combination, front up on defence?

How will they respond once the aerial and kicking battle ensues, and how they will react if the Bok forwards don’t fire as expected?

Willemse (42) will be the senior man in the 10-12-13 combination. Some might see this as a natural progression, given he is the preferred No 12 at the Stormers.

However, Willemse is yet to establish himself as an inside centre option at Test level and – according to Erasmus – is lacking confidence after missing the 2024 international season with injuries.

One wonders if Willemse may have benefitted from the chance to play with Pollard and Kriel either side of him, or with another senior player in Le Roux at No 15.

The same could be said for Feinberg-Mngomezulu, whose threat may be amplified by the presence of De Allende, Esterhuizen or even Pollard at 12, and Le Roux at the back.

For better or worse, Erasmus has rolled the dice – and we’ll see how they fall on Saturday.

There could be a significant reshuffle in the second half, and yet another surprise if Erasmus opts to use Esterhuizen at flank rather than centre.

If Esterhuizen is deployed at No 12, Willemse may move to fullback.

Hooker may also come into the midfield – and has some experience of playing alongside Esterhuizen at the Sharks.

Erasmus will get some valuable answers regarding some of the younger and less experienced players this Saturday.

But if the Boks lose another match in New Zealand, questions will be asked regarding the balance of this combination, and whether one or two more veterans may have boosted the team’s cause.

@rugby365com