Four areas where Boks can thump All Blacks

OPINION: If the Springboks win the third Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry Test, they are well on track to clinch the series, and so too are the All Blacks should they claim the contest at FNB Stadium in Soweto on Saturday.

*Also read: ‘We’ve got a job to do’: Park the drama says All Blacks Legend

The series is currently drawn at one apiece after the Ellis Park and Cape Town Stadium showdowns, and with a draw being the last thing either side would want, a victory in the last match in the republic will set the winner of this weekend’s clash up well ahead of the Baltimore game.

Two Tests in, drama hasn’t lacked – from Dave Rennie’s scrummaging long-form composition to Rassie Erasmus’ clap-back and Airlink’s showstopper, this tour has entertained until now.

What this weekend will dish up remains to be seen.

In the meantime, we look at four areas where the Springboks can thump the All Blacks in their last home-ground Test.

Scrums

With the extent of Dave Rennie’s moaning regarding the scrums, how can it not be an area of focus in the third Test?

Following the Cape Town match, the Kiwi mentor said the Bok pack “walked around” at the scrum, an accusation Rassie Erasmus and scrum guru Daan Human didn’t take lightly.

Rennie and Co may not pay too much mind to Human’s “I am a farmer assertions” given how focused they are on driving a certain message, but they cannot play coy about the level of dominance they faced in both Johannesburg and Cape Town.

In fact, chances are Rennie knows there’s no fault to be found in the Springbok scrum and is simply beating this drum to put it on referees’ radar in the hopes of building prejudice around the Bok set-piece.

Whatever his agenda, the Boks have got their number.

The All Blacks were hapless at Ellis Park against the starting front row and were dominated again at Cape Town Stadium, with the only thing beating the number of times we have heard Rennie’s scrummaging complaints being the number of resets they were granted in the second Test.

Regardless of which front row South Africa send out, the All Blacks cannot beat it; that much has become clear.

The only time they came close was late in the first Test, but that’s just about the only bragging right they have in that regard.

This is a battle in the bag; these Springbok front rows simply won’t be outscrummed, and the Boks have just as good a chance at schooling them at the line-out again after Eben Etzebeth stole three of their throws last week, including a vital steal five metres from the Bok try line.

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Aerial game

This one wasn’t even a comparison in the first two Tests, and New Zealand’s issues under the high ball were evident even before facing the Springboks.

In their tour-opener against the Stormers, they struggled to secure possession from high balls, and those struggles didn’t let up against the Boks; instead, it got worse.

The All Black backs have particularly struggled with the Boks’ short and high kicks and their flood of kick-chasers applying pressure.

The All Black wingers have typically run back to field kicks, and New Zealand have until now punted the current laws, making it difficult for the receiving team, but their failure to adapt and nullify the threat over two Tests makes it unlikely that we’ll suddenly see a shift in dominance in the air.

Final quarter shutdown

The New Zealanders are pretty confident that the final quarter is theirs to own thanks to their self-proclaimed incredible fitness. Probably with good reason.

Being able to put teams away in the last quarter of a match is a key part of their identity, and they produced a nervy end to the second Test when Ardie Savea scored a try in the 77th minute before Lood de Jager was sin-binned.

They also pulled away in the final quarter against the Stormers in their first clash of the tour, although the Capetonians’ loss after holding the visitors to 14-all until well into the last 20 minutes had more to do with their injuries and lack of scrumhalf cover.

Be that as it may, the All Blacks probably have good reason to be confident.

History favours them at altitude; they have won eight of their last 10 Tests in Pretoria and Johannesburg, including the first Test of this tour at Ellis Park and their two previous Tests at FNB Stadium.

The Boks, however, also have a recent fond memory of the Highveld – their 42-28 Nations Championship victory over Scotland in July, when South Africa broke free from a 14-14 halftime stalemate to claim a win that appeared comfortable only on the scoreboard as the Scotsmen refused to stay down.

The Boks ran in two tries in the third quarter and another double in the final 20 minutes of the game, and while the All Blacks are of course an entirely different challenge to Scotland, that result highlighted the Boks’ ability to grind out wins and stay in it until the end.

But building scoreboard pressure consistently is a much safer bet than chasing a game at altitude or even having to dig deep to hold onto a modest lead – that will be key for the Boks.

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The mental factor

The only thing fans would have been more anticipated about than Airlink’s next flyover is the actual Bok team that will run out in Soweto, especially the Kiwis.

The Bok coaching staff tied New Zealand in knots with their amended team sheet, particularly when they switched the entire front row shortly before kick-off.

Whether there will be more tweaking or not, no man knows how to get under the opposition’s skin better than Erasmus.

And it’s exactly that that will have them unsettled.

Before the series kicked off, Rennie said he expected a few curveballs from Erasmus and confidently assured that they’d come with some of their own innovations.

They caught the Boks off guard by ripping the ball from their grasp in the tackle in a “100 percent legal” way, but that was just about the only noteworthy element of surprise they have produced.

There’s a good chance that they are sweating over what Erasmus will dish up this time, and whether they can expect a pre-game or in-game surprise or none at all doesn’t matter; what matters is the fact that the Boks have them wondering nonetheless.