New Zealand v South Africa - teams and prediction

ROUND THREE PREVIEW: This is the biggest and most iconic rivalry in the game, regardless of what the coaches and players would tell you.

Yes, we can examine the many side shows – such as New Zealand’s Eden Park record (50 Tests and 30-plus years unbeaten) and South Africa’s four-match winning streak against New Zealand.

However, it is the history between the No.1 (hosts) and No.2 (visitors), along with the passions of these two giants, that makes Saturday’s Rugby Championship Round Three encounter the match of the weekend, perhaps even the year.

Yes, there will be another face-off in Wellington next week, as well as some big games on the year-end tour.

But nothing beats the All Blacks against the Springboks.

Adding to the momentousness of the encounter, All Black loose forward Ardie Savea will be playing in his 100th Test.

Bok coach Rassie Erasmus highlighted this as a motivational factor for their hosts.

“Playing 100 Tests is one of the most special milestones a player can achieve,” Erasmus said this week, adding: “Ardie has been a true servant to the New Zealand game, and he deserves all the recognition that comes with that.

“It also doesn’t get more special than playing at their fortress [Eden Park] in such a massive game.”

Turning his attention to the match, Erasmus said he expects it to be an emotionally charged encounter and a huge battle all around.

(Rassie Erasmus previews the Eden Park face-off…..)

“Matches between the Springboks and All Blacks are always intense, and we know neither team will hold back,” the Bok coach said.

“There have been a few big scores between the sides in the past, but also many tight battles, so the most important aspects for us will be to execute our game plan as well as we can, fight fire with fire, and be effective in every aspect of our game.

“Every point will count in this match, so we need to be sharp mentally and physically, and ensure that we leave nothing out on the field.”

Erasmus admitted there is very little to choose between the two sides.

“We have a good referee [England’s Karl Dickson] and we know how he controls the game,” he told @rugby365com.

The Bok coach pointed out that even the selections make it a ‘pretty even’ game.

“It is the belief [in your systems] in the vital moments,” he said, when asked what could be the difference between winning and losing in such a big arm-wrestle.

“Also, which team makes the right decisions in momentum-shifting moments that will turn this.”

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All Black coach Scott Robertson warned his players against getting caught up in the ‘Eden Park hype’ and said they must “clear their minds”.

There is pressure on Robertson to ensure his team maintain an extraordinary record in Auckland, where their last loss was against France in 1994.

Robertson said his players must put that aside and focus on the “highly physical” style he expects from the Springboks.

“Just clear their heads and go and play some footy,” the Kiwi coach said.

“Obviously, it will be an emotional game, but there will be a lot of physical contact,” Robertson added.

“Games are won off that first-up physical contact and the ability to do it over and over again.”

Players to watch

For New Zealand: The All Blacks are motivated to honour the milestone of Ardie Savea, rated for several years among the world’s pre-eminent back row forwards, who will play in his 100th Test. The starting XV shows three changes, with New Zealand having been plagued by injuries at scrumhalf, where Finlay Christie will make his first start in more than a year, while the uncapped Kyle Preston is named on the bench. Wing Emoni Narawa and back rower Wallace Sititi have also been recalled to New Zealand’s starting XV. The Barrett brothers, Jordie at inside centre and Beauden at flyhalf, will be charged with driving the All Black game.

For South Africa: The selection of Siya Kolisi at No.8, even though he won’t wear the captaincy armband, will put the spotlight on the double World Cup winner. Experienced outside centre Jesse Kriel will skipper the visitors. A training ground injury ruled Jean-Luc du Preez out, opening the door for Kolisi’s recall. There are four changes to the starting XV – the Springboks’ most experienced player Eben Etzebeth returning, alongside Ruan Nortje, in what will mark Etzebeth’s 136th Test. There are two changes in the loose trio, where Kolisi returns from a niggle in what will mark his second Test at No 8, while Pieter-Steph du Toit returns at flank. The only change in the backline is at fullback, where Willie le Roux will start his 101st Test.

Head to head

South Africa are on a four-game winning streak against New Zealand, holding them to 12 points or fewer in three of those wins. Only once have they enjoyed a longer run of consecutive wins against the All Blacks (six games from 1937 to 1949).

New Zealand have won nine of their last 11 Tests against South Africa in New Zealand (with one loss and a draw), holding the Springboks to 20 points or fewer in all but one of those games. They are unbeaten against the Springboks in Auckland since 1937, picking up eight wins and one draw against them there since.

New Zealand will be aiming to avoid back-to-back defeats for the first time since September 2024, after losing 23-29 to Argentina in Round Two of the Rugby Championship. Each of their last two defeats have come after they had not trailed at half-time.

New Zealand is undefeated across their last 59 Tests in Auckland (57 wins and two draws). They’ve conceded an average of just 12.1 points per game across the last 13 Auckland fixtures.

Prediction

@rugby365com: New Zealand by five points

Teams

New Zealand: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Emoni Narawa, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Fabian Holland, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Quinn Tupaea, 23 Damian McKenzie.

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel (captain), 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Canan Moodie, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Siya Kolisi, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Marco van Stated, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacement: 16 Jan Hendrik Wessels, 17 Boan Venter, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 23 Ethan Hooker.

Date: Saturday, September 6
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 19.05 (09.05 SA time; 07.05 GMT)
Expected weather: Clear and breezy, with wind gusts of 40+ km/h. Real Feel: 6°C
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant referees: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia), Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: Brett Cronan (Australia)

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