Scotland v New Zealand - Teams and Prediction

PREVIEW: Scotland will be searching for their first-ever win over New Zealand when the two sides meet in the northern leg of the Nations Championship in Edinburgh on Saturday.

It is one of rugby’s oldest rivalries, spanning 121 years.

The first Test between the sides was played in November 1905, going head-to-head 33 times, with New Zealand winning 31 of those encounters.

The other two matches ended in draws, with Scotland still waiting to record their first victory over the All Blacks.

By contrast, England, Wales and Ireland have all beaten the All Blacks, long regarded as one of rugby union’s superpowers.

So why has such a landmark victory eluded Scotland?

Beyond tales of sporting bad luck, such as an unfavourable bounce of the ball or a pass not being held, one underlying reason is that rugby union is New Zealand’s national sport, while football has traditionally held sway in Scotland.

The issue has been exacerbated since the end of rugby’s amateur era by the fact that Scotland can only sustain two professional clubs, Edinburgh and Glasgow. This has also meant that gifted players, such as flyhalf Finn Russell, have sought opportunities elsewhere, with Russell leaving for Paris-based Racing 92 before joining English giants Bath three years ago.

Scotland’s relative lack of depth has also become more apparent in an era where teams can make eight substitutions during a match.

Last year’s encounter was a case in point. New Zealand led 17-0 at half-time, only for Scotland to fight their way back to 17-17 heading into the final quarter.

However, New Zealand replacement Damian McKenzie scored a late try before adding a penalty to ensure the All Blacks secured a 25-17 victory.

It was the fourth consecutive meeting in which New Zealand had beaten Scotland by eight points or fewer.

‘Toughest challenge’

“A lot of people in sport know the All Blacks is the iconic rugby team. But our players have played against them, so that will help,” said Scotland coach Gregor Townsend.

Scotland’s task at Murrayfield on Saturday is made all the more difficult by the fact that it will be their first Test since July, while New Zealand have played six matches since then – including a 3-1 series defeat to world champions South Africa, followed by two emphatic victories over Australia.

Former Scotland playmaker Townsend, who will face a New Zealand side coached by his Glasgow successor Dave Rennie, added: “They’re playing some excellent rugby right now and it’s our first game of the season, which is always the toughest challenge for us too.

“It’s a different New Zealand team. It’s a team that is playing much more ambitious rugby. They’re informed, they’re cohesive. They played a lot of Test matches over the summer.”

Generations of Scots have left their homeland to build new lives in New Zealand. The South Island city of Dunedin, for example, derives its name from the Scottish Gaelic word for Edinburgh.

There is also a Scottish influence in the present-day All Blacks set-up, with former Scotland scrum-half Mike Blair now serving as New Zealand’s attack coach.

Furthermore, eight members of the touring squad play for Super Rugby champions the Hurricanes, coached by Clark Laidlaw, the son of Scotland great Roy Laidlaw.

Blair, who was in charge of Edinburgh from 2021 to 2023, said recent results meant there was no question of New Zealand taking Scotland lightly this weekend.

“When I played, New Zealand played their second-string team,” recalled the former scrum-half, who earned 85 caps for Scotland.

“They gave guys opportunity against us.”

However, with the All Blacks recalling centre Jordie Barrett to a dangerous backline that also features his older brother Beauden at fullback and McKenzie at flyhalf, Blair added: “Times have changed from that. We’re fully loaded. We’re ready to go.”

Players to watch: 

For Scotland: Gregor Townsend has selected a formidable squad, with Finn Russell pulling the strings at flyhalf. Known for his creative genius, the playmaker has the ability to turn a game on its head with his tactical kicking, vision and attacking instincts. The midfield combination of Huw Jones and Sione Tuipulotu is another area where Scotland could trouble the All Blacks. Tuipulotu, in particular, brings physicality and strong ball-carrying ability through the middle. On the wing, Kyle Steyn provides the X-factor with his elusive footwork, sidestepping ability and keen eye for the tryline. In the pack, Jack Dempsey is always busy around the breakdown, while Pierre Schoeman could provide an extra dose of physicality and power off the bench.

For New Zealand: Regarded as one of the finest players of the modern era, Jordie Barrett returns from injury to take his place at centre. It will be fascinating to see how he approaches the midfield battle against Scotland’s dangerous combination of Huw Jones and Sione Tuipulotu. On the wing, Josh Moorby impressed during the Greatest Rivalry series against the Springboks and will be eager to carry that form into Saturday’s encounter. Damian McKenzie also has a crucial role to play as he goes head-to-head with Finn Russell at flyhalf. Both playmakers are renowned for their attacking instincts and willingness to take risks, making this an intriguing battle. In the pack, the loose-trio combination of Wallace Sititi, Peter Lakai and Tupou Vaa’i looks particularly promising. They will need to deliver a big performance, especially in the absence of captain Ardie Savea.

Prediction:

Rugby365: New Zealand by five points

Scotland: 15 Kyle Rowe, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (Captain), 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Gregor Brown, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Rory Sutherland,
Replacements: 16 Gregor Hiddleston, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Josh Bayliss, 21 George Horne, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Blair Kinghorn.

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Peter Lakai, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacement: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Christian Lio-Willie, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 23 Rieko Ioane.

Date: Saturday, November 7
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 14.10 UK & IRE (14.10 GMT; 03.10 NZDT Sunday, November 8)
Expected weather: Cloudy and wet with a high of 10°C and a low of 7°C
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant Referees: Andrea Piardi (Italy) & Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: Olly Hodges (Ireland)

*Additional reporting: AFP