South Africa v New Zealand - Teams and Prediction
SECOND TEST PREVIEW: The All Blacks have drawn first blood in the Greatest Rivalry, but the Springboks have home advantage and everything to play for in Cape Town.
Can Rassie Erasmus’ men bounce back and level the series?
Ellis Park is done. The All Blacks have the advantage. The Springboks need to win this Saturday at DHL Stadium in Cape Town.
That is the premise heading into the second Test.
For the Springboks, this week has been about reflection and trying to make sense of what went wrong during their 16-33 defeat in the first Test.
Rassie Erasmus’ men know all too well that another defeat will end their hopes of securing a Greatest Rivalry series win.
For the All Blacks, meanwhile, it has been about focusing on themselves and trying to continue their unbeaten run under Dave Rennie.
The short Cape Town Test week
It has been a very unconventional Test week in Cape Town.
New Zealand played a midweek match against the Lions on Tuesday and only arrived in the Mother City on Wednesday.
The Springboks also opted to stay in Johannesburg until Wednesday and had their first media briefing in Cape Town on Thursday.
This is certainly a Test that both teams are eager to win.
New Zealand will want to repay the faith of their fan base, while for the Boks, it will be a case of keeping their ambitions of securing the RGR alive and maintaining their stronghold at DHL Stadium.
Since 2021, South Africa have played six international matches at Cape Town Stadium, winning five of them.
Their only defeat came against the British & Irish Lions in July 2021, when the tourists edged the Springboks 22-17.
South Africa responded by winning the next two matches of that series at the venue, beating the Lions 27-9 and 19-16.
While the two teams certainly have a rich history, this will be only the second meeting between the Springboks and All Blacks at Cape Town Stadium.
The previous encounter ended in an 18-12 victory for the Springboks in 2024.
There will be a level of concern with the news that Handre Pollard will miss the showdown after he picked up a niggle
As a result, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu will start at flyhalf with Manie Libbok providing cover on the bench.
Cheslin Kolbe also returns to the starting XV, replacing Kurt-Lee Arendse.
Amid all the injury setbacks, there has been good news as captain Siya Kolisi makes a return this Saturday.
The Boks faced a nervous wait on Kolisi, who was eventually cleared on Tuesday after a successful training session.
Speaking to reporters, Springbok prop Thomas du Toit did not underestimate the impact of the captain’s return.
“It’s great having Siya back in the team.”
Du Toit believes Kolisi’s leadership will be crucial to the Springboks’ preparations.
“I think he did very well with his rehab to get back as quickly as he could.
“He was really trying hard to get back in the team and every time he didn’t really feel 100 percent, he would be big enough of a person to say, ‘ Listen, I’m not ready, and take the extra week’. The physios and the doctors obviously looked after him well.
“I think it was very big of him to make those types of decisions. He made very responsible calls, not only for the team, but for himself. You don’t want to play with a niggle or injury.
“So it’s great having Siya back again. He’s a very vocal person, especially at training, and I feel that helps a lot.
“He gives a lot of confidence to the younger guys and then, obviously, the more experienced guys, they speak his language.
“So it’s great to have him back in the team again.”
While the Boks were certainly a frustrated outfit following their defeat and were outscored five tries to one by the All Blacks, there were positives to take from their performance.
Their scrum was in fine form, while their 22-metre entries were in double figures.
They also boasted a better line-out percentage, 93 percent to 79 percent, and had more territory, 59 percent, and possession, 51 percent.
However, the number of turnovers conceded proved costly and will be one of the major areas the Springboks will need to address.
When asked what he expects from the Springboks, All Blacks coach Dave Rennie said he expects Erasmus’ men to stick to their strengths.
“I think they’ll just try and do what they did last week and try and do it better.
“So they’ll again attack us at set-piece, put more ball in the air, try and get a big wall in front of us and try and spend as much time in our 22 as they can.”
Matfield: Just win
While both teams are keeping their cards close to their chest, Springbok legend Victor Matfield shared his thoughts on the upcoming fixture.
Matfield believes the Springboks performed better than the final score suggested but were undone by costly mistakes.
“I really believe that the Springboks actually played pretty well last weekend.” Matfield told reporters at the ‘An Evening with the Centurions’ hosted by Peregrine Capital at Zeitz Museum of Contemporary Art Africa (Zeitz MOCAA).
“Unfortunately, there were just a few incidents where they couldn’t score, and that put the pressure on them.
“They’re the number one team in the world, double world champions, everyone is expecting them maybe to win by 10 or 15 points.
“Although the Springboks won’t say it, they feel that pressure from the outside.”
For Matfield, however, there is only one thing that matters this weekend: victory.
“We need to win. Even if it’s by one point.”
The former Springbok captain pointed to the 2023 Rugby World Cup, where South Africa won three consecutive knockout matches by a single point.
“And I think that’s the only thing that’s important on Saturday. We just need to win.
“Maybe they’ll be a bit more conservative in how they play the game – don’t make errors, because that was the problem last week.
“I’ve never seen the Springboks give, or this Springbok team give, 21 turnovers away in a game. They just made too many mistakes.
“I think if they sharpen up on that, with the talent that they’ve got, with the structures that they’ve got, we should be fine on Saturday.”
Players to watch:
For South Africa: Siya Kolisi’s return could provide the Springboks with a major emotional and leadership boost. After missing the first Test, the captain is back in the starting line-up and will be expected to bring composure, physicality and direction to a Bok side desperate to bounce back. Pieter-Steph Du Toit will make history in Cape Town by becoming only the 11th Springbok to reach 100 Test caps. The versatile forward, who has been immense for the Boks in recent years, will be expected to lead from the front. In the backline, Cheslin Kolbe is always one of the standouts. He has been in fine form from the tee as well; the winger will be out to add his name to the try tally.
For New Zealand: Ardie Savea remains one of the All Blacks’ most influential players and his work-rate around the park, ability to carry hard and knack for creating opportunities make him a constant threat. Will Jordan was among New Zealand’s key attacking threats in the first Test and showed his ability to punish defensive lapses. The Springboks will need to be far more accurate in the aerial contest and in defensive transition if they are to keep Jordan quiet. Centre Jordie Barrett was influential in New Zealand’s 33-16 victory at Ellis Park, bringing his physicality, defensive strength and composure to the midfield. His ability to carry hard, create space for those around him and his boot makes him a major threat.
Prediction:
@Rugby365: South Africa by three points
Teams:
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Morne van den Berg, 23 Manie Libbok.
New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Fabian Holland, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 George Bower.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Patrick Tuipoluto, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Josh Moorby
Date: Saturday, August 29
Venue: DHL Stadium, Cape Town
Kick-off: 17.10 (15.10 GMT; 03.10 NZST Sunday, August 30)
Expected weather conditions: Partly cloudy with a low of 11°C and a high of 18°C. Rain is also expected around kick-off time.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Karl Dickson (England), Sam Grove-White (Scotland)
TMO: Brett Cronan (Australia)
