Team Talk: Finishing XV in the spotlight for RGR decider

OPINION: Damian Willemse’s return will give the Springboks more backline options while the management of the pack in the second half could be series-defining.

Last week, Bok coach Rassie Erasmus named a largely unchanged match 23 ahead of the third Test against the All Blacks in Johannesburg.

At the time, he spoke about the importance of player management across four gruelling Tests and said that the Boks might use as many as 36 players before the end of the series.

Erasmus went on to reveal that the Boks had played fewer game minutes – on average – than their All Blacks counterparts over a six-week period.

The big takeaway from that press conference was that South Africa were the fresher of the two teams, and were primed to peak at the business end of the series.

The “mini-series” decider at the Calabash has come and gone, with the Boks winning 29-24 to take a 2-1 lead in Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry.

Depth was always going to be an issue for the All Blacks, especially on a tour of this nature, and they will head into the finale in Baltimore this Saturday without three key players in Ardie Savea, Luke Jacobson and Quinn Tupaea, who sustained injuries in the recent loss.

Now coach Dave Rennie finds himself in a situation where will be forced to rotate ahead of the match that will define the tour.

The Boks were expected to rotate ahead of the fourth Test, given the options at their disposal.

It wouldn’t have come as a surprise to see Canan Moodie, Handré Pollard and Grant Williams joining the backline contingent or Boan Venter, Johan Grobbelaar and Carlü Sadie providing the Bomb Squad with fresh impetus.

Instead, Erasmus has kept the changes to a minimum ahead of the series-decider, Willemse has replaced the injured Cheslin Kolbe at fullback while scrumhalf Morné van den Berg has swapped roles with Cobus Reinach, who is now on the bench.

Has Erasmus had a change of heart?

If there are no late changes, the Boks will finish the series having used 30 players – and not 36 as Erasmus previously predicted.

Has the Bok boss missed an opportunity ahead of the Baltimore decider, or is there something else at play that isn’t immediately clear?

Last week, Erasmus made the point about game minutes and how these numbers influence selections a lot more than the figure of total matches played.

He set out a six-week parameter, which includes the recent one-off against Argentina in Buenos Aires, before comparing the Boks with the All Blacks Test stars, who have also played games against South African franchises in the same window.

*Also read: Rassie explains why Sacha retains starting spot over Manie

How do those comparisons stack up now, after the epic showdown at the Calabash?

On average, the Boks have played 87 minutes fewer than the All Blacks Test players who are available for this weekend’s game.

As many as five All Blacks have racked up more than 300 minutes in this period, namely Jordie Barrett, Leroy Carter, Ruben Love, Tupou Vaa’i, Fabian Holland.

A further 11 have accumulated 200 or more, namely Damian Mckenzie, Will Jordan, Anton Lienert-Brown, Josh Moorby, Cam Roigard, Peter Lakai, Simon Parker, Wallace Sititi, Sam Darry, Tyler Lomax and George Bower.

Meanwhile, the Boks have just one player – Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu – who has played more than 300 minutes – while seven have played more than 200 – namely Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Ethan Hooker, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Ruan Nortje and Eben Etzebeth.

It may seem that Erasmus has been conservative with his selections in recent weeks, given the figure of 30 players used.
But a closer look at the team sheets reveals that the Boks boss has made as many as 22 changes to the match 23 over the course of a four-week period.

Erasmus has attempted to manage the game minutes of specific individuals wherever possible, with the aim of keeping the strongest combinations fresher for longer.

Now it remains to be seen how he will juggle and marshal the 23 players selected for the all-important clash in Baltimore.
Will he spring a late surprise by switching his front rows, as he did in the hours before kickoff at the Cape Town Stadium two weeks ago?

The question is linked to the endurance and form of the incomparable Malcolm Marx.

The Boks need their best hooker and breakdown exponent on the field in the dying stages of this series-decider, and if Marx starts, he may have to soldier on for 80 minutes.

A late front-row switch will increase the likelihood of Marx, and perhaps Ox Nché and Wilco Louw, joining the fray before the end of the first half and playing the final 50-odd minutes of the contest.

That selection would decrease the threat of fatigue and a potential dip in performance in the dying stages of a must-win match.

Again, maybe the Bok coaches see things differently.

Erasmus may feel that the All Blacks are there for the taking, especially at the set pieces, and may want to make an early statement.

But this series has been largely unpredictable, and the Boks have needed all of their experience and resolve to close out the last two games.

Erasmus and the players often speak about the relationship between the starting XV and the Bomb Squad – with the former tasked with tiring the opposition out and the latter, more often than not, tasked with finishing them off.

This week, Gerhard Steenkamp, Deon Fourie and Thomas du Toit will are set to persist with their Bomb Squad roles – although Fourie may need to cover a few bases.

There may be a period when Marx and Fourie are operating in tandem – with the latter replacing Siya Kolisi at openside – and later, when Fourie moves into the front row.

Lood de Jager may slot in for Etzebeth, Pieter-Steph du Toit may move across to replace Nortje and André Esterhuizen and Cameron Hanekom should join the back row in the second half.

There is another factor worth considering ahead of the coming clash: Luck.

The Boks haven’t had much luck with backline injuries in recent weeks, which is a big issue for a team favouring a six-two bench split.

Kurt-Lee Arendse left the field after nine minutes at Ellis Park, Willemse after 40 in Cape Town and Kolbe after 10 at the Calabash.

Those early losses had a knock-on effect, with the subsequent reshuffle costing the Boks dearly in the first match, and forcing significant changes to the on-field combination in the second and third Tests.

Erasmus will be hoping for more luck this weekend. Perhaps, at long last, the Bomb Squad will be unleashed as initially planned.

Feinberg-Mngomezulu, as the team’s first-choice goal-kicker in the absence of Kolbe, has to play 80 minutes – but may find himself at fullback once Manie Libbok – who has been excellent throughout the series – joins the fray in the second half.

Perhaps Willemse will shift to inside centre in the closing stages, if the Boks are in a position to go for the jugular.

De Allende has been one of the Boks’ top performers across the series, but he’s played every minute of the past three Tests in what is a physically demanding position – and it remains to be seen whether he go another 80 minutes without a dip in performance.

Van den Berg will threaten the All Blacks defence as he did last week, but the decision to start “Krappie” ahead of Cobus Reinach may be linked to the latter’s superior experience.

Indeed, Erasmus will want his most seasoned decision-makers on the field in the closing stages, with Reinach set to partner Libbok in the halfbacks, and a two-time World Cup-winner in Willemse there to provide support.

There may be a temptation to push the likes of Kolisi and Etzebeth to go the distance, given their leadership strengths.

The Bok skipper has played just 98 minutes over the past three weeks, and with that workload in mind, Erasmus may back Kolisi to guide South Africa over the line.