Why Rennie's All Blacks face race against time in SA

OPINION: More than half of the current All Blacks squad hasn’t toured South Africa recently and will take some time to adapt to local opposition and conditions in the coming weeks.

On Monday, Coach Dave Rennie unveiled his 44-man All Blacks squad ahead of the Greatest Rivalry tour to South Africa.

The inaugural tour includes fixtures against the Stormers, Sharks, Bulls and Lions, as well as four consecutive Tests against the Springboks, the last of which will be staged in Baltimore, USA.

It’s a brutal schedule by anyone’s standards.

Rennie – who is well known in rugby circles for his “can-do” attitude – put the matter into perspective after announcing his squad.

Forget the World Cup or the British & Irish Lions tour – this may well be the biggest challenge in the sport.

“With eight matches in six weeks, including a four-Test series against the Springboks, this would have to be the toughest tour in rugby,” the All Blacks coach said.

“Every player will be required to play their part across this tour, whether it’s preparing to play or helping their mates prepare.”

South African and New Zealand fans – and a fair number of neutrals – will be salivating at the prospect of those four Tests, given the long rivalry between the nations and the fact that they are ranked No 1 and 2 on the current World Rugby ladder.

A closer look at both squads suggests that Rassie Erasmus and Rennie are preparing for the unique challenge of playing four marquee Tests in as many weeks.

There will be setbacks and injuries – and it would be fair to predict that the group with the greatest strength in depth will emerge as winners of the series.

First and foremost, the All Blacks will need to come to terms with the South African conditions and playing style before tackling the Boks at Ellis Park on August 22.

Some have suggested that the New Zealanders will have ample time to adapt, given they will play the Stormers in Cape Town, the Sharks in Durban, and the Bulls in Pretoria before the Test series kicks off some three weeks later.

And yet, it’s worth noting that the New Zealanders don’t enjoy the same exposure to South African opposition and conditions as was the case in the old Super Rugby days, and will have a lot of catching up to do on this tour.

Rennie has selected a strong and well-balanced All Blacks squad, and the team is coming off three impressive wins against France, Italy and Ireland.

Most of the big names will be in tow, with Ardie Savea, Codie Taylor, Patrick Tuipulotu, Jordie and Beauden Barrett, as well as the prolific Will Jordan spearheading the leadership group.

That said, the current Bok squad boasts more Test caps overall (1550 to 1270) and more players with 50-plus caps (12 to nine).

The bulk of the team has won back-to-back World Cups, and has beaten the All Blacks in five of the last six meetings.

Erasmus’ Boks know how to win big matches, and as the record suggests, they know what it takes to beat the All Blacks home and away, having won back-to-back Freedom Cup titles in 2024 and 2025.

The story continues below…

Since the Boks’ record-breaking 43-10 result in Wellington, the All Blacks have appointed a new head coach – and that may make all the difference.

Rennie will instruct his charges to forget about the past and to treat the coming matches as an opportunity to change the narrative.

The facts are hard to ignore, though.

Many of these All Blacks are yet to beat the Boks and – perhaps most significantly – haven’t played in South Africa during the current World Cup cycle.

As many as 17 of the 44 squad members haven’t played the Boks across the past four games.

A whopping 26 (59% of the squad) haven’t played in South Africa during the current World Cup cycle.

It will be interesting to see how Rennie addresses the situation in the weeks leading up to the Test series.

It remains to be seen how many Test players will be released to the clubs for the fixtures against the All Blacks. While the intensity of those contests will be lower, the All Blacks should use the opportunity to acclimatise to local conditions.

The tourists will play the Bulls on the Highveld on August 16, a week before tackling the Boks in the first Test at Ellis Park.

They should, in theory, have sufficient opportunity to adjust to the altitude during that period.

On the other hand, injuries may influence Rennie’s selections over the course of the tour.

Will he have access to the full 44-man squad by the time the Test series kicks off? Given the wear and tear of modern rugby, it’s highly unlikely.

Knowing that, the wily head coach will need to strike a balance across the preceding matches against club opposition – giving veterans as well as rookies chances to adjust to local conditions and the South African playing style.

As he said on Monday, the least experienced members of the squad may well be needed at the back end of the Test series, due to the attritional nature of the tour.

What’s more, Rennie will face the added challenge of integrating Savea at a later stage – as the skipper has played a lot of rugby of late and is set to be rested in the lead-up to the Test series.

The Boks won’t take the All Blacks lightly across those four Tests – and to be clear, the facts and figures above should not be used to write off the tourists completely.

What the numbers do highlight, of course, is the magnitude of the challenge in South Africa, and why Rennie and the players face a race against time ahead of the first Test.