Preview: Scotland v Tonga
Of all of Scotland's defeats in recent years, Tonga remains the low point.
Two years ago in Aberdeen, Scotland wasted an abundance of ball possession and territory, a superior set-piece, a man advantage for more than 20 minutes, and almost double the penalty count in a 15-21 loss, its first to the Tongans.
Scotland finished the year without a win at home, and without a coach a day later, when Andy Robinson resigned.
Assistant coach Scott Johnson took over, and began injecting fresh blood in the side. He stepped aside this year, and Vern Cotter has rejuvenated attitudes, ploys, and standards.
That's helped mark Scotland as a team to watch again, after beating Argentina and running the All Blacks close in the last two weeks. There's a strong belief in the side that Tonga must be beaten in the first major Test not only in Kilmarnock, but also on a synthetic field, to maintain the improvement, and go confidently into the Six Nations in February with high expectations.
"We have spoken about the fact this could be the danger game. It was easy for the guys to get themselves up for Argentina because it was the first game of the series, and then the All Blacks.
"But now we have shifted away from Murrayfield, and changed the environment. There is an opportunity to prepare well and execute well in a difficult situation, so mentally we have to be resilient. It will be fascinating to see how we deal with it," Cotter said.
Injuries forced Cotter to make four changes after the 16-24 loss to New Zealand. Tighthead prop Geoff Cross and No.8 Johnnie Beattie have come in for Euan Murray (thigh) and Adam Ashe (neck) in the forwards while centre Sean Lamont, capped 90 times, has replaced Mark Bennett, out for 12 weeks with a hamstring tear, and wing Tim Visser is in for Sean Maitland (hamstring).
Tonga has been consistent on its European tour. After beating Georgia 23-9 in Tbilisi, they made only one change to then beat the United States 40-12 in Gloucester. Once again, they have opted to make a solitary change, at flyhalf, switching in Northland's Latiume Fosita for Kurt Morath, who started both previous Tests.
Tonga hadn't won since June 2013 until the tour, but just like against Scotland two years ago, they started slowly then surged in the third quarter, when the Sea Eagles have also begun to empty their bench. They have kept the ball in hand, applied pressure territory-wise, and defended well. And nobody has been sin-binned.
It bodes well in their Rugby World Cup preparation, for which they consider this tour closer a major rehearsal.
Scotland captain and scrumhalf Greig Laidlaw played at flyhalf in the 2012 loss, and won't be underestimating Tonga.
"A good trait is to expect the unexpected with these boys, they're hard to analyse. If we get ourselves right we'll be OK. If our minds start wandering away, like the game two years ago, we'll come unstuck.
"We have to move the point of contact. These boys are made for rugby, and like to come and hit. We need to look after the ball and play in the right areas of the field," he said.
Players to watch:
For Scotland: The Gray brothers, Jonny and Richie, have formed a formidable second row partnership and will look to continue their recent form. Greig Laidlaw will be his busy self and look to keep his side ahead through his very educated right boot.
For Tonga: Captain Nili Latu has plenty of experience and will look to transfer that to the rest of the pack of forwards. Aleki Lutui and Sione Kalamafoni will want to assert their physical presence on the Scots.
Head to head: Aleki Lutui is known for being very physical, so Ross Ford will need to be at his best to stop the Tongan from gaining any rhythm. Fetu'u Vainikolo showed his finishing prowess with a long range try against the United States but will be up against Tommy Seymour, who scored an intercept-try against the All Blacks.
Previous results:
2012: Tonga won 21-15, Aberdeen
2001: Scotland won 43-20, Edinburgh
1995: Scotland won 41-5, Pretoria (World Cup pool match)
Prediction: Tonga will be physical and try to disrupt the Scots' momentum with big hits and their unique brand of rugby. Scotland are coming off the back of a narrow defeat to the All Blacks and will be looking to bounce-back immediately. The ghost of the previous result will be put to rest as Scotland should win by 10 points.
Teams:
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Sean Lamont, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw (captain), 8 Johnnie Beattie, 7 Blair Cowan, 6 Rob Harley, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Geoff Cross, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Alasdair Dickinson.
Replacements: 16 Fraser Brown, 17 Gordon Reid, 18 Ryan Grant, 19 Kieran Low, 20 Alasdair Strokosch, 21 Chris Cusiter, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Duncan Taylor.
Tonga: 15 Vungakoto Lilo, 14 David Halaifonua, 13 Siale Piutau, 12 Hemani Paea, 11 Fetu'u Vainikolo, 10 Latiume Fosita, 9 Sonatone Takulua, 8 Viliami Ma'afu, 7 Nili Latu (captain), 6 Sione Kalamafoni, 5 Joe Tu'ineau, 4 Tukulua Lokotui, 3 Paea Fa'anunu, 2 Aleki Lutui, 1 Tevita Mailau.
Replacements: 16 Elvis Taione, 17 Sione Lea, 18 Sila Puafisi, 19 Lisiate Fa'aoso, 20 Hale T Pole, 21 Tomasi Palu, 22 Kurt Morath, 23 Sione Piukala.
Date: Saturday, November 22
Venue: Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
Kick-off: 14.30 (14.30 GMT, 03.30 Sunday, November 23 Tonga Time)
Expected weather: Partly cloudy, low of 5°C, high of 11°C
Referee: JP Doyle (England)
Assistant referees: Greg Garner (England), Marius Mitrea (Italy)
TMO: Carlo Damasco (Italy)
AFP
