South Africa v New Zealand - Teams and Prediction

PREVIEW: Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry has come down to this.

After two bruising Tests, the series is locked at 1-1, and Saturday’s showdown at FNB Stadium feels less like a third Test and more like a Rugby World Cup final.

With around 80,000 fans expected at FNB Stadium and the vuvuzelas set to create a deafening atmosphere, one of the biggest stages in South African rugby is ready for a blockbuster.

Power versus precision

This series has developed into the ultimate clash of styles: the Springboks’ world-class scrum and power game against the All Blacks’ devastating attacking system.

No contest will be scrutinised more closely than the scrum.

After two weeks of debate over South Africa’s dominance at the set piece, every scrum will be analysed under a microscope, with Georgian referee Nika Amashukeli thrust into the spotlight.

Coming from a nation whose rugby identity is built around scrummaging, Amashukeli faces one of the biggest officiating assignments of the year.

If he rewards genuine dominance at scrum time, the Springboks will believe one of their greatest weapons has returned.

The All Blacks have found South Africa’s weak spot

The concern for Rassie Erasmus is not the scrum – it’s what happens when New Zealand get quick ball.

Dave Rennie and attack coach Mike Blair have transformed the All Blacks into a side capable of stretching the Springbok defence from touchline to touchline. Across the opening two Tests they have scored nine tries to South Africa’s four, repeatedly exposing space on the edges with slick first-phase attack and well-organised pod play.

The first two tries in Cape Town came directly from lineout moves, while the All Blacks have consistently found space out wide whenever they have managed to pull the Springbok defence apart.

That is the area South Africa simply has to fix.

South Africa’s blueprint

The Springboks know exactly how they want this game to look.

Suffocate New Zealand through relentless driving mauls. Dominate the scrum. Slow down the All Blacks’ breakdown ball. Continue disrupting New Zealand’s lineout, which faltered badly in Cape Town.

If South Africa can turn the match into a physical arm wrestle, they back themselves to wear the All Blacks down.

For perhaps the first time in years, the Bomb Squad has not delivered the decisive blow.

Instead, New Zealand have finished stronger in both Tests, winning the closing stages and piling pressure on the Springboks late in the game. That raises a fascinating question heading into Johannesburg: whose bench will have the bigger impact?

The timing of the replacements could prove just as important as the players themselves.

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All Blacks tweak the pack

Rennie has resisted changing his backline, with the same attacking unit starting a third consecutive Test against South Africa.

Instead, the focus has shifted to the tight five after New Zealand’s lineout struggles in Cape Town.

Tupou Vaa’i earns his 50th Test cap and is partnered by Sam Darry in the second row, a notable selection after Fabian Holland had been expected to continue and Josh Lord had been tipped for a return following concussion.

The message is clear: fix the set piece without disrupting an attack that has repeatedly troubled the Springboks.

Key matchup: Front row showdown

Ox Nché, Malcolm Marx & Wilco Louw v George Bower, Asafo Aumua & Tyrel Lomax

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This is the battle that could decide the third Test. South Africa’s starting front row returns after beginning on the Bomb Squad bench in Cape Town, placing even more focus on a scrum contest that has dominated the build-up all week.

The Springboks have built their game around scrum dominance throughout the series, using it to win penalties, build territory and sap the All Blacks’ momentum. New Zealand, however, showed clear improvement in the second Test and will be determined to stand up physically after the scrutiny surrounding their set piece.

Let the rugby do the talking

Too much of this series has been dominated by a war of words between the two coaching teams over scrums, breakdowns and referees.

Now it is time for the players to settle it.

Expect New Zealand to come out firing, looking to build an early lead before the Springboks try to wrestle momentum back through territory and set piece. And if the first two Tests are anything to go by, the All Blacks will throw everything at South Africa in the final 10 minutes.

The Springboks’ response – and the Bomb Squad’s impact – could decide the biggest Test on South African soil this year.

Above all, let’s hope the result is decided by rugby, not a single refereeing decision.

Players to watch

South Africa: The spotlight falls squarely on the Springbok front row. Ox Nché, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw return to the starting XV after their last-minute move to the Bomb Squad bench in Cape Town, and with the scrum dominating the build-up to this Test, every engagement will be under the microscope. Cheslin Kolbe’s move to fullback also adds another attacking dimension, giving the Bok magician more space to launch counterattacks from deep. At scrumhalf, Cobus Reinach’s battle with Cam Roigard promises to be one of the defining contests of the afternoon.

New Zealand: Cam Roigard remains the heartbeat of the All Blacks’ attack after two outstanding Tests, while Damian McKenzie and Will Jordan continue to pose a major threat whenever they find space in broken play. Up front, all eyes will be on Tupou Vaa’i as he earns his 50th Test cap and anchors a reshuffled tight five that must stand up to the Springboks’ feared scrum.

Prediction:

@Rugby365: South Africa by three points

Teams

Teams

South Africa: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker,10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Morne van den Berg, 23 Manie Libbok.

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Peter Lakai,5 Sam Darry, 4 Tupuo Vaa’i, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 George Bower.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Fabian Holland, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Josh Moorby.

Date: Saturday, September 5
Venue: FNB Stadium, Soweto
Kick-off: 17.10 (15.10 GMT; 03.10 NZST Sunday, September 6)
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (France)