First-half shutout and 'slow poison' the key at Murrayfield

OPINION: The Springboks must avoid an attacking shootout with a dangerous Scotland side this Sunday.

What would signify a satisfying start to the Boks’ three-match tour of the northern hemisphere?

A win by seven points, by 15, or by as much as 30?

It’s worth reflecting on the Boks’ most recent battles against Scotland before tackling the question.

In 2021, the Boks were widely criticized for their performance in Edinburgh, even though they ended up winning by 15 points.

In the immediate aftermath of the 2023 World Cup pool fixture in Marseille, the Bok coaches and players were inundated by questions regarding missed scoring chances.

The winning margin on that occasion was also 15 points.

To be fair, a more clinical attacking and goal-kicking showing would have yielded more points.

However, with regard to other aspects of the Boks’ performance, the execution was spot on.

The Bok scrum forced six penalties throughout the match, while the defence kept a dangerous Scotland attack tryless for 80 minutes.

South Africa conceded just three points in the first half, which is particularly significant when you consider that Scotland is statistically—along with the All Blacks—the most potent first-half team in the world.

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This season, the Scotland attack has averaged 19 points in the first half (more on their second-half stats in a moment).

Of the tier-one nations, only the All Blacks (21) have averaged more points and tries during his period in 2024.

Scotland racked up some particularly big numbers on their three-match tour of the Americas in July (73 points against Canada, 42 against the United States, and 52 against Chile), and in the recent fixture against a second-string Fiji (57).

Take those stats out of the equation, and their strengths and weaknesses are a little clearer.

The Scotland attack is still right up there with the best tier-one nations, at least in terms of their ability to create and convert opportunities in the first half.

In the 2024 Six Nations, Gregor Townsend’s charges outscored their opponents in the first half in four out of five matches.

In the second stanza, however, Scotland was less successful, and a failure to match the opposition in the latter stages contributed to a record of three losses during their five-match campaign.

What’s this got to do with the Boks, and the game at Murrayfield on Sunday?

Scotland and the Boks are polar opposites, at least in terms of their scoring patterns.

While the Boks have improved a great deal this season, and have boosted their first-half stats significantly in comparison to previous seasons, they remain the leading team in the second stanza, and specifically in the fourth quarter.

No team has averaged more points (11) or tries scored (1.55) in the fourth quarter this season.

The Boks also lead the defensive stats, in terms of average points (three) and tries (0.33) conceded in this crucial period of the game.

So much has been made about Tony Brown’s attacking template, while less has been said about how this has dovetailed with Jerry Flannery’s defensive system.

The Boks are scoring more points and tries than in previous years, and that new attacking approach has compromised the defence at certain times throughout the season.

That said, they have been quick to recover after missing a tackle or conceding a linebreak, and the stat of 10 tries conceded throughout the six-game Rugby Championship speaks to their determination and quest for defensive excellence.

Rassie Erasmus knows what it takes to beat Scotland, having presided over three consecutive wins against Townsend’s team over the past seven years.

In a sense, he will demand more of the same this Sunday, and ask his players to keep the dangerous Scots in check for the first 40 minutes, before shifting gear after half-time.

This approach may translate into another win in the region of 15 points, and a terrific start to the three-match tour.

One needs to remember that Erasmus is juggling his resources ahead of the next match – and arguably their most important tour fixture – against England at Twickenham, which will be staged a mere six days later.

Failure to respect Scotland, especially in the first half, could spell disaster for the Boks.

We saw what happened recently when the Stormers hosted Glasgow Warriors at Stellenbosch.

The Stormers’ defence made a series of costly errors, while the attack forced passes and conceded possession from deep within their half.

They were duly punished by a Warriors side stacked with internationals, who went on to score four tries in a resounding 28-17 victory.

Of course, if the Boks execute from the outset this Sunday, and race to an early lead, they could set themselves up for one of the biggest wins at Murrayfield.

Indeed, if the starting XV clicks and the Bomb Squad maintains momentum through to the final whistle, the Erasmus’ charges may surpass the class of 2013, who beat Scotland 28-0 despite torrential conditions.

@rugby365com