Five reasons the Boks will take sixth straight win over Wales

OPINION: The Springboks will conclude their home leg of the Nations Championship against Wales in Durban on Saturday.

*Also read: Boks zone in on area of concern ahead of Wales showdown

While South Africa will be looking to continue their winning ways in an improved effort from last weekend’s Test against Scotland, Wales will be aiming to bounce back after going down to Argentina by getting only their second-ever win over the world champions in South Africa after their 12-13 edging in Bloemfontein in 2022.

They’ll also want to avoid another one-sided affair… The last time they met, the Boks handed them an embarrassing 0-73 thumping.

The Springboks thrashed England 45-21 before overcoming Scotland 42-28 in their first two Tests, while Wales beat Fiji 39-24 before losing 21-35 to Los Pumas.

Out of the 44 Tests the two teams have squared off in, the Boks have won 36, while they have also won the last five matches against the Welsh.

We look at five reasons why the hosts should get a sixth straight win against Steve Tandy’s team.

Set-piece superiority

Emphasising the South Africans’ set-piece strength is like saying they’re the best team in the world; it’s obvious, but it’s still worth mentioning.

The area is the original cornerstone of the Springboks’ blueprint, and while Wales loosehead prop Nicky Smith was confident in their scrum, saying it’s been a “real weapon” for them and that going up against the Bok scrum is exactly the type of test they want, the South African scrum is a different beast when it operates at its full capacity.

Scotland weren’t a complete walkover when it came to packing down at Loftus, but there can be no doubt that increasing their potency to their typical standard would have been one of the Boks’ objectives this week. And the same goes for the line-out.

If they can combine their characteristic set-piece efficacy with the kind of try-scoring intent they put on show last week, they’ll be halfway there.

Prime-time potency

The Springboks converted 50 percent of their 22-metre entries into tries in Pretoria, while Scotland were only successful in 33 percent of their attempts, and that was the biggest difference considering that the Scotsmen dominated territory and possession and had the better attacking numbers by far.

Rassie Erasmus’ men’s efficiency in the red zone highlighted their clinical finishing, and Wales would have learnt from Scotland’s efforts the importance of making use of those opportunities – Gregor Townsend’s team scored just 2.5 points per 22-metre entry compared to the home team’s 5.2.

Breakdown brawn

Scotland may have had the Boks under the pump at the breakdown, showing their confidence and speed on the ground as they built 50 more rucks than the opposition, but with breakdown ace Paul de Villiers in the run-on side and Marco van Staden aka Eskom on the bench, it’s a clear indication that the Boks aren’t planning on letting Wales’ ruck tactics put their lights out.

Defensive fix

The Springboks’ defence was their weakest area last weekend, but there’s good reason to believe they won’t lack so severely in that area again.

The Boks missed almost 50 tackles against Scotland, and an interesting stat by World Rugby states that Wales are one of two teams to have scored a try from at least half of their line breaks in this year’s Nations Championship, with Ireland being the other team.

South Africa have, however, allowed their opposition to score on just 16 percent of the linebreaks they’ve conceded – the best defensive rate of any side.

The home team will certainly have to up the cohesion in their defensive line, but if they get it right, it will be an even tougher afternoon for the Welsh.

Beautiful Brutality

Seeing Boan Venter lift Cobus Wiese after a restart at Loftus like he doesn’t weigh north of 110 kilograms and stand at almost two metres tall was poetry in motion, and while the Boks weren’t at their best, that physicality was still there.

That move highlighted how the Springboks make the physically demanding look easy, and while the Scots weren’t meagre when it came to the physical exchanges, South Africa still had the edge, especially in terms of their dominant hits.

Wales aren’t scared of collisions, and whether they’re approaching the physicality department as a test or an opportunity to fight fire with fire, they will face no bigger challenge than the world champions when it comes to physicality.