Pollard or Libbok: Rassie's pivotal poser

OPINION: Rassie Erasmus’ selections at scrumhalf and flyhalf will have a bearing on the result at Twickenham this Saturday and on South Africa’s three-match tour as a whole.

Last month, Erasmus made a statement when he picked his strongest available squad for the tour of Scotland, England and Wales.

Some interpreted these selections as a shift in approach.

After experimenting with 49 players across the first 10 matches of the season, Erasmus looked set to favour his best possible starting combination for consecutive Tests in Edinburgh, London and Cardiff.

A closer look at the tour schedule, of course, showed why Erasmus was always likely to field a ‘second-string’ combination in the tour opener against Scotland, before recalling a group of first-choice players for the clash against England six days later.

As I wrote at the time, Erasmus’ best option was a split-squad strategy aimed at keeping key players fresh as well as match-ready for the all-important tour fixture at Twickenham – a reply of the theatrical World Cup semifinal.

That match is nearly upon us, and Erasmus could not have asked for a better buildup.

As it happened, Erasmus did select a host of ‘second-choice’ players and combinations for the tour opener against Scotland.

Five players – Aphelele Fassi, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, and Kurt-Lee Arendse – were effectively rested, while regular first-choice players such as Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Jasper Wiese were managed from the bench.

The Boks weren’t at their best at Murrayfield, but still managed to beat a fiercely competitive Scotland side by 17 points.

The attack stuttered and misfired, and yet, the Boks scored four tries.

The defence leaked a few linebreaks but still managed to keep a Finn Russell-led attack tryless.

The Boks are now well-placed to peak at Twickenham this Saturday.

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The match is, in a sense, a final, as the success of South Africa’s tour hinges largely on this result.

England, of course, are desperate to halt their losing streak after suffering defeats to New Zealand and Australia at home.

Since the victory against Scotland, critics and fans have had a crack at predicting the Bok lineup for the showdown at Twickenham.

It’s safe to assume that Fassi, Kolbe and Arendse will start in the back three, and that De Allende and Kriel will start in midfield.

Erasmus favoured these players for the Rugby Championship ‘decider’ against Argentina in Mbombela in late September.

Wiese, Du Toit and Kolisi should reclaim their places in the starting back row.

If everyone is fit, the tight-five dynamic of Ox Nché, Bongi Mbonambi, Thomas du Toit, Eben Etzebeth and Franco Mostert should roll on, while Malcolm Marx, Gerhard Steenekamp, Vincent Koch, RG Snyman, Kwagga Smith and possibly Elrigh Louw should provide impact from a six-two bench.

Some may have seen this switch coming since the squad was first announced.

But with regards to the starting halfback pair, and indeed the backline reserves, the selection picture is less clear.

Last month, I wrote that Erasmus may opt to start Cobus Reinach and Manie Libbok against Scotland, before backing Jaden Hendrikse and Handré Pollard against England.

Reinach and Libbok enjoyed some success as a starting combination at the 2023 World Cup, and were particularly potent in the quarterfinal against France.

I thought that Erasmus might give this pair a run against Scotland, and save the latter two for England.

With his physicality, box-kicking accuracy, and ability to marshal a giant pack of forwards, Hendrikse is a favourite of the coaching staff.

Pollard is another with the potential to amplify the Boks’ physicality – especially on defence – and is the best-goal-kicker in the squad.

So how should we interpret Erasmus’ decision to pick Hendrikse and Pollard for the first match of the tour?

Is it a sign that Reinach – or possibly Grant Williams – and Libbok will start at Twickenham, or is it a case of Erasmus giving Hendrikse and Pollard a match to find their adjust to Northern Hemisphere conditions before the meeting with England?

Erasmus will keep everyone – including England coach Steve Borthwick – guessing until the team is named on Thursday afternoon.

The media and fans will continue to speculate, while Borthwick’s staff will devote time and effort towards analysing the respective players in an attempt to work out how the Boks will approach this fixture.

Before the tour, I was probably in the majority when I predicted that Hendrikse would partner Pollard at Twickenham.

It’s a combination with the potential to maximise South Africa’s traditional strengths.

If the Bok pack fires, Hendrikse and Pollard will convert that dominance into territory and points.

And yet, Libbok’s kicking game is hugely underrated.

While he’s had his goal-kicking problems this season, his kicking from hand has been excellent.

The Boks are likely to launch a series of contestable kicks this Saturday, given that the laws now favour the chasing team to a significant degree.

The Boks will look to regain possession from the kicks – they regathered five kicks against Scotland – whether Libbok or Pollard starts at Twickenham.

But Libbok brings more variety to the Bok approach, and this much has been evident across the past two seasons.

The Boks will respect England as well as the occasion this Saturday and will look to harness their traditional strengths where possible.

That said, they may look to harness their newfound attacking strengths and expose some of England’s defensive frailties.

As was the case at last year’s World Cup, the elevation of Libbok does not necessarily amount to a demotion of Pollard.

Both have the potential to make game-winning contributions, whether they start or play from the bench.

Libbok was instrumental to the Boks’ success in the first half of the quarterfinal against France.

Pollard came off the bench in the quarter- and semifinals, bolstering the leadership group, and nailing several important goals.

In a sense, Borthwick is looking to replicate that dynamic at England, by starting the electric Marcus Smith and then introducing the more experienced George Ford at No.10 late in the game.

While those selections haven’t yielded the desired result in recent weeks, there is a method to Borthwick’s madness.

Not for the first time, the England coach is taking a page out of Erasmus’s playbook.

Nevertheless, the call to start Libbok at No.10 may come as a bit of a surprise.

If all goes to plan for the Boks, Libbok and company will capitalise on England’s inconsistent defence in the early stages, and build a decent lead.

Pollard and possibly Williams could have a different role to play as part of the South African Bomb Squad, who put 13 points past Scotland in the fourth quarter last Sunday.

It may be viewed as a gamble by Erasmus, but it’s a less risky strategy than starting Pollard and benching Libbok.

While all recent form suggests that England will fade in the fourth quarter, Erasmus will want his first-choice goal-kicker on the field in the final moments.

Many are predicting a big win for the Boks at Twickenham, but Erasmus knows how important this game is in the context of the three-match tour.

He won’t want to take any chances.

Libbok has the potential to develop into a world-class goal-kicker, but his recent struggles have cost South Africa dearly.

There are other reasons why the Boks lost to Argentina in Santiago earlier this year, but the reason they didn’t win was down to Libbok’s missed penalty at the death.

One way or another, Pollard has to be on the field at the death of Saturday’s fixture at Twickenham.

Either he has to play a full 80 minutes, or he has to be deployed from the bench in the latter stages.

The team announcement in London on Thursday afternoon will reveal a lot about how the Boks intend to approach this match, and just how much Erasmus is willing to risk in order to claim a tour-defining result.

@rugby365com