Pollard’s stocks rise ahead of Dublin arm-wrestle

OPINION: Goal-kicking accuracy should influence Rassie Erasmus’ selections this week as the Springboks go searching for their first win in Dublin since 2012.

Back in February, when it was put to Erasmus that the Test against the All Blacks at Eden Park was the toughest assignment of the season, the head coach steered the conversation towards the showdown with Ireland on 22 November, and suggested that the clash in Dublin was more important.

While the rivalry between South Africa and New Zealand remains special – and will be showcased in a full-blown series next year – the Boks have beaten the All Blacks in five of the last six Tests.

Ireland, of course, have proved a tougher nut to crack, with the Boks losing four of the last five games, and last winning in Dublin back in 2012.

The current group of Bok players and coaches have won back-to-back World Cups, a British & Irish Lions series, and three Rugby Championships. They’ve ended long droughts overseas and have shattered several point-scoring records.

But a win against Ireland in Dublin remains their white whale.

History favours Ireland ahead of Saturday’s clash, while form suggests that the Boks will win at a canter.

Since thrashing the All Blacks 43-10 in Wellington, the world champions have beaten Argentina 67-30 and 29-27, Japan 61-7, France 32-17 and Italy 32-14.

Ireland lost 13-26 to the All Blacks in Chicago earlier this month, before racking up convincing wins against Japan and Australia.

They will be ready for the Boks’ arrival this Saturday – and like Erasmus, coach Andy Farrell will have specific plans and plays reserved for the big occasion.

Everything points to another tight encounter, and while there are many factors that will shape the contest, goal-kicking could be the difference between winning and losing.

It may seem an obvious statement to make, but the Boks haven’t needed a goal-kick to win a game since the Rugby Championship Test against Argentina in Santiago del Estero last season.

On that occasion, Manie Libbok pushed a last-minute penalty attempt wide, and the Boks lost 28-29.

The Boks then proceeded to win their next four games by 41, 17, nine and 33 points respectively.

In 2025, the Boks have won 10 of their 12 Tests – nine of those by a margin of eight points or more.

Goal-kicking wasn’t a decisive factor in the losses to Australia in Johannesburg and New Zealand in Auckland, where they lost by 16 and seven points respectively.

It’s tempting to suggest that goal-kicking is no longer a priority, now that the Boks are playing a more ambitious attacking game.

It’s interesting to note that the overall goal-kicking success rate for 2025 (81%) is as high as it’s ever been since Erasmus took charge of the Boks in 2018, and there’s been a clear improvement on last season’s performances (74%).

And yet, when you focus solely on the previous matches against Ireland, you start to realise why the Boks will have a point to prove with the boot this Saturday.

It’s possible that the Boks will run away with the game in the second half – just as they did in Wellington, Durban, London, Paris and Turin over the past few weeks.

But Erasmus and his coaches would do well to address an important question before the team is finalised on Thursday afternoon.

Who among the group should be trusted to slot the kick that will end the drought in Dublin, and mark the five-match tour to Europe a resounding success?

Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu deserves to start at No.10, but should Libbok or Handré Pollard feature from the bench?

Feinberg-Mngomezulu has been the Boks’ least consistent goal-kicker in 2025 (74%), followed by Libbok (79%).

That said, both have been key to South Africa’s overall attacking and tactical-kicking success across the matches against New Zealand, Argentina, Japan and France.

Pollard has played just five Tests this season, slotting 21 out of 22 kicks for a record of 95%.

Last week’s match in Turin witnessed a perfect storm of setbacks, with Franco Mostert copping a controversial red card in the 12th minute and Marco van Staden receiving a yellow in the second half.

The scrum, typically the most reliable aspect of the Bok game plan, failed to fire.

A lot can be said for the quality of the defence – which conceded one try – and the execution of the tactical-kicking strategy.

And in front of goal, Pollard produced a flawless four-from-four performance.

Pollard’s composed display contrasted Libbok’s effort at the death.

The replacement flyhalf appeared to misjudge the shot clock when lining up the conversion to Ethan Hooker’s try, and referee James Doleman then proceeded to blow the final whistle.

Libbok’s missed attempt – or non-attempt – had little bearing on the final scoreline in Turin, yet it may influence selections ahead of the big one in Dublin.

Erasmus and company may be thinking about missed goal-kicks, and how they have compromised the Boks’ quest for a win in recent clashes against Ireland.

In 2022, the Boks went into the match in Dublin without a couple of frontline goal-kickers, and Cheslin Kolbe and Damian Wllemse combined for three misses that amounted to seven missed points.

Ireland went on to win 19-16.

In the 2023 World Cup pool showdown in Paris, Libbok and Faf de Klerk combined for four missed kicks, and a whopping 11 points were left on the field.

Ireland edged the contest 13-8.

Pollard wasn’t at his best in the first Test against Ireland in Pretoria last year, missing three of his seven attempts on goal, but the Boks won 27-20.

The veteran slotted eight from eight in the decider in Durban – and kept the Boks in the game – but the contest was eventually decided by a late Ciaran Frawley drop goal.

As the recent record suggests, when these teams meet, the margins are small and one kick or play can mean the difference between winning and losing.

It wouldn’t come as a surprise to see Feinberg-Mngomezulu starting at No.10 this Saturday, but given how the last four matches have panned out, Erasmus would do well to include Pollard on the bench.

As the Bok coach stated in February, the Test in Dublin is the most important of the year.

South Africa have already beaten the All Blacks to retain the Freedom Cup and Rugby Championship title, and have claimed a statement win against the Six Nations champions.

If they win in Dublin this weekend, Erasmus’ side will tick a massive box in the context of their eight-year journey, and ensure that they end the 2025 season on an emphatic note.

But if they lose, the same old questions around this match-up – specifically about game management and goal-kicking – may resurface.