Preview: Wales v South Africa
The one country's players and coaches always talk a good game. The other country, mostly, play a big game.
Wales, who haven't beaten a Southern Hemisphere Tier One team since 2008, are desperate to end a 23-match losing streak when they host South Africa in Cardiff on Saturday.
The last Welsh victory over a SANZAR nation was a 21-18 win over Australia in November 2008, also coach Warren Gatland's sole winning performance against either the Wallabies, Springboks or All Blacks in 27 matches since he took charge.
Despite the media outcry and suggestions that his job is on the line, the Welsh coach, Gatland, stood firm in his believe that they will be a genuine threat at next year's World Cup.
He feels they have a real chance against a Springbok team deprived of a host of frontline players.
However, he knows South Africa will not be a roll-over, the Boks having notched up the year's sole defeat of New Zealand and also having only ever lost to Wales once in 29 clashes.
It promises to be a humdinger of a Test match at the Millennium Stadium, where Wales went down 16-34 to the All Blacks last week – still leading with 12 minutes to play, before three late tries saw the Kiwis race clear.
We keep saying to ourselves, we know we are good enough and we keep putting ourselves into positions to win these games","Gatland said ahead of the arrival of South Africa.
"Look how close they have been," he said of their losses to Australia (28-33) and New Zealand (16-34), with a 17-13 win over Fiji sandwiched in between
"There is no-one more disappointed than myself," the Welsh coach said of a recent run that also include two defeats to the Boks in June – 16-38 and 30-31.
He is certainly well supported by his captain, Sam Warburton, who also feels that victory over the Boks is not as fanciful a suggestion as some are claiming.
"I always say why not?" Warburton said, adding: "The players know they are good enough – it will happen.
"We have worked too hard to keep losing these games.
"I agree with Warren [Gatland] it is not a fitness issue," he said of their failure to close out matches in the last 10 minutes.
The statistics may suggest otherwise.
The last time South Africa played Wales, the Boks came back from deficits of 0-17 and 17-30 to triumph 31-30 in Nelspruit.
The Springbok coach, Heyneke Meyer, used those encounters as a warning to his team – ensuring there's no complacency or a lack of focus, which cost them so dearly in their opening tour match against Ireland.
The Boks opened their November series with a 15-29 defeat by Ireland, but bounced back to beat England 31-28 and then eased past Italy (22-6).
"When we played them [in June] it was two of the toughest games we've had this year, including the Rugby Championship," Meyer said.
The Bok coach felt those games could have gone either way and suggested that against New Zealand Wales did well – despite conceding three late tries.
"I believe Wales is a quality side," Meyer said, adding: "I'm not sure why they have lost it in the last 10 minutes, when they could have won it. It doesn't make them a bad side."
He said Wales have a very good forward pack, their defence is up there with the best in the world and they can play a very good tactical game.
"Their backs are big and strong and if they get quick ball on the front foot they are very dangerous."
Gatland has made three enforced changes to his run-on team, Liam Williams notably coming in for injured Northampton wing George North.
Veteran prop Gethin Jenkins and hooker Scott Baldwin take over from Paul James and Richard Hibbard, who have returned to club duty with Bath and Gloucester respectively since Saturday's match falls outside the international Test window.
Meyer made eight changes to his team from the one that beat Italy last week.
Prop Tendai Mtawarira, hooker Bismarck du Plessis, fullback Willie le Roux, as well as wings Cornal Hendricks and Lwazi Mvovo will all start.
The changes in the back three were required because Johan Goosen (Racing Metro), Bryan Habana (Toulon) and JP Pietersen (Japan), who started against the Azzurri, are not available, while the two changes to the front row are rotational.
Both teams still have a few matches to fine-tune their squads – Wales in the Six Nations and the Boks in the Rugby Championships – but both coaches know that time is precious and this game is vital.
"The year-end Test are not a competition, it's about using it to play against the best teams in the world who have come off really strong campaigns to prepare potentially for the Six Nations, which is our competition, and the World Cup," he said.
"What we're going to be judged on is our performance in the World Cup and our whole focus is on getting out of that pool in the World Cup.
"That's been the whole emphasis of this campaign and it'll be the same with the Six Nations."
Players to watch:
For Wales: You can always look at powerful Jamie Roberts and the guile of Jonathan Davies in the midfield. Taulupe Faletau has not been as effective as he can be, while Sam Warburton will always push the envelope at the breakdown. You also wonder if Mike Phillips will be a hindrance or an asset when he comes off the bench.
For South Africa: The return of Willie le Roux cat fullback creates an expectation of exciting things to come and sometimes he is simply sublime. Cornal Hendricks, after bursting onto the scene, has gone flat and needs a good performance. Lwazi Mvovo also gets a rare start on the other wing and will have to use the opportunity to press his claim for more regular appearances in the matchday squad. Pat Lambie will be in the spotlight because of the competition at flyhalf, as will Handré Pollard when he comes off the bench.
Head to head: There are some intriguing battles all over the park, but none will be more interesting than in midfield – the Welsh duo of Jonathan Davies and Jamie Roberts against the Springbok pair of Jan Serfontein and Jean de Villiers. Probing with brute force comes to mind when trying to describe what will happen at the Millennium Stadium. The other face-off worth looking at i between two seasoned and grizzled locks – the much younger (29year-old) Alun Wyn Jones (Wales) against Victor Matfield (37).
Recent results:
2014: South Africa won 31-30, Nelspruit
2014: South Africa won 38-16, Durban
2013: South Africa won 24-15, Cardiff
2011: South Africa won 17-16, Wellington (World Cup pool match)
2010: South Africa won 29-25, Cardiff
2010: South Africa won 34-31, Cardiff
2008: South Africa won 20-15, Cardiff
2008: South Africa won 37-21, Pretoria
2008: South Africa won 43-17, Bloemfontein
2007: South Africa won 34-12, Cardiff
Prediction: You never write off Wales. Go look at the first hour of their encounters against both New Zealand and Australia to find reasons why they are indeed a threat. South Africa will have to soak up lots of pressure if they are to come out on top. No doubt Wales will ask lots of questions, but we feel South Africa will sneak a late winner – by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (captain), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Jake Ball, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Emyr Phillips, 17 Aaron Jarvis, 18 Rhodri Jones, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 James King, 21 Mike Phillips, 22 Rhys Priestland, 23 Scott Williams.
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Jan Serfontein, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Teboho Mohoje, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Julian Redelinghuys, 19 Lodewyk de Jager, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Francois Hougaard, 22 Handré Pollard, 23 Damian de Allende.
Date: Saturday, November 29
Venue: Millennium Stadium Cardiff
Kick-off: 14.30 (14.30 GMT; 16.30 SA time)
Expected weather: The roof will be closed, as always, but it will be damp underfoot and even though the surface has improved, it still cuts up at times. High of 12°C and low of 7°C
Referee: John Lacey (Ireland)
Assistant referees: George Clancy (Ireland), Pascal Gauzère (France)
TMO: Graham Hughes (England)
By Jan de Koning
@King365ed
Wales head coach Warren Gatland and captain Sam Warburton look ahead to this Saturday's Test against South Africa
