Shape of the game: Stats back Bok coach's view
STAT ATTACK: The Springboks’ back-to-back World Cup wins in 2019 and 2023 were built around their solid defence and high tackle numbers.
In 2019, South Africa only conceded five tries in seven games in Japan and only conceded one try in the knockout stages.
They did not concede any tries to Japan (a 26-3 win in the quarters) or England (a 32-12 victory in the Final). In the Final, they had a moment of defensive brilliance, holding on to a 6-3 lead with 26 consecutive phases of English pressure in their own 22. The Springboks not only defended very well against the English attack, but they also forced a turnover and won a penalty.
And they also defended brilliantly for over 30 phases in the semifinal against Wales.
In France in 2023, they only conceded an average of 1.54 tries per game, including their three one-point victories in the play-offs.
The Boks made the most tackles of any team in the tournament (929). They made 209 tackles in the 12-11 Final against New Zealand.
Pieter-Steph du Toit led the way with 28 tackles in the Final. Franco Mostert made an impressive 49 tackles in the knockouts and did not miss a single tackle.
In stark contrast, the top teams, including South Africa, experienced shifting try-scoring and try-conceding profiles post the 2023 World Cup.
Their performances across major international windows saw a dramatic expansion in try-scoring averages across both hemispheres.
South Africa has conceded 27 tries in nine matches this year, an average of three tries per game.
They conceded 14 tries in four Tests against New Zealand, five tries in one encounter with Australia (in their last outing), and four against Scotland in one Test.
This year the Boks registered a paltry 83.5 percent tackle success rate. In their physical showdown against the All Blacks at Ellis Park, the Boks’ completion rate dipped to 77 percent after missing 26 tackles, contrasting sharply with New Zealand’s 87 percent in that match.
It raised the poser of why the Boks are conceding more tries year-on-year, or even this year?
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Springbok defence coach Jerry Flannery suggested it is not just the Boks’ defence that is under duress.
“It is the way the game is going,” the defence guru said, adding: “The trend in World Rugby is that attack is scoring more points.
“For every single team in the world, they’ve all been conceding more points.
“So defence coaches are all under the pump, but we’re trying to fix that as we go along.”
Flannery admitted the Boks have, increasingly year-on-year, conceded more points since their fourth World Cup win in France in 2023.
While his comments were reported in the media, it was also worth a ‘deep dive’ into the statistics of the post-World Cup cycle to get some context.
And that makes for some very intriguing and engaging reading.
Try-scoring and attacking output have certainly increased in the international game in recent years.
There has been an upward trend of tries per game, reaching around 7.4 tries per match this year.
Teams are increasingly choosing to kick for touch and attack from line-outs. This has resulted in a large drop of penalty goals (penalty kicks at goal) in key Tests.
The top 10 ranked teams in World Rugby (South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, France, England, Scotland, Argentina, Wales, Australia, Fiji) have also had varying levels of tries scored and conceded in the international windows since the 2023 World Cup.
In the immediate aftermath of the World Cup, 2024, there was a dramatic expansion in try-scoring averages in all internationals.
South Africa scored 61, but also conceded 23 (+38), followed by New Zealand (63 for, 31 against for +32), Ireland (51 for and 21 against for a +30), France (48 & 32, +16) and England (39 & 35, +four).
The following year, 2025, the picture changed again. The Springboks went 54 tries for and 21 against (+33), followed by Ireland (46-19, +27), New Zealand (55-29, +26), France (49-28, +21) and England (38-31, +seven).
Teams had heavily refined their tactical structures in 2025 to curb the runaway try rates seen in the previous year.
This year, 2026, the global game prioritised peak physical conditional output and highly structured exit strategies. Try margins shrank significantly.
The Springboks’ tries for (40) and against (27) continue to see the gap narrow (to just +13). France (46-35, +11) and New Zealand (33-25, +eight) saw a similar picture, while Australia improved significantly to come in at fourth place (29-23, +six).
South Africa’s tries for numbers are skewed by the 20 tries in July, six each against England and Scotland, with eight against Wales.
An even deeper dive into the numbers shows South Africa scored an average of 34 points per match in 2026 and just over four tries (4.4) – again influenced heavily by the July window of eight tries against Wales, along with six each against England and Scotland.
New Zealand (31.2 points per game, 4.1 tries), France (28.4, 3.5), Ireland (26.8, 3.1) and England (25.1, 2.9) follow closely.
Compare that to 2025: South Africa (31.0, 4.0), France (30.2, 3.8), New Zealand (29.8, 3.9), Ireland (28.5, 3.4) and Scotland (26.9, 3.2).
In 2024, the numbers were: South Africa (31.3, 4.0), New Zealand (29.2, 3.7), Ireland (28.8, 3.8), Argentina (28.3, 3.3) and France (25.6, 2.6).
The same picture appears when you look at the top teams’ tackle success rate.
In 2026, South Africa’s 83.5 percent completion rate suggested the Boks, with an ultra-aggressive rush defence, are willing to accept missed tackles to deny the gainline.
Ireland (88.2 percent), New Zealand (87.0 percent), France (86.4 percent), England (85.1 percent), Scotland (84.8 percent) and Argentina (83.9 percent) all have a better completion rate.
Last year, 2025, the picture looked like this: Ireland (87.8 percent), New Zealand (86.5 percent), France (85.9 percent), Scotland (85.2 percent) and England (84.5 percent) were all better than South Africa (84.0 percent).
In 2024, Ireland (89.1 percent), New Zealand (87.5 percent) and France (86.8 percent) were ahead of South Africa (84.0 percent).
