The Bok team Rassie should pick for Eden Park showdown

OPINION: The Springboks need Handré Pollard at flyhalf, Jean-Luc Preez at No.8 and a six-two bench split to maximise their set-piece and aerial strengths in Auckland this Saturday.

After naming his team at the start of the week for most of the 2025 season, Rassie Erasmus will announce the matchday 23 for the Freedom Cup series-opener this Thursday, a full week after the team’s arrival in New Zealand.

For the next few days, the debate around the line-up will continue to rage.

Going by what was said by Erasmus at Monday’s press conference in Auckland, the Bok coaches want more time to assess their options, and to consider who the All Blacks might select.

Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit – who both missed the game against Australia in Cape Town due to injuries but were subsequently cleared for the tour of New Zealand – may need another session or two to prove they are fit for a battle of this magnitude.

Assuming that all are fit and available, Erasmus should select a team geared towards a set-piece and aerial assault, and a group that boasts the necessary balance between youth and experience across the 23.

BACK THREE

Willie le Roux and Damian Willemse both featured in the 2023 World Cup final against New Zealand in Paris.

While their experience would be an asset in another final of sorts in Auckland, Aphelele Fassi may be preferred at No.15 for his aerial ability – and Le Roux as well as Willemse could miss out on the match 23 altogether (more on the bench split in a moment).

Erasmus has highlighted Willemse’s lack of confidence, and it may be some time yet before this massively important player regains his mojo.

While Fassi blew hot and cold against Australia, he has the ability to dominate the aerial battle – which could go a long way towards deciding the match.

The All Blacks have struggled in this area over the past few months, and the Boks will surely look to target the New Zealand back three with a series of box-kicks and garryowens.

Canan Moodie is another who may provide an edge in this department. With Kurt-Lee Arendse and Edwill van der Merwe ruled out, the tall, powerfully built player should start on the wing alongside Cheslin Kolbe.

MIDFIELD AND HALFBACKS

Erasmus rotated his squad regularly over the course of the 2024 season, but favoured the starting midfield combination of Damain de Allende and Jesse Kriel in eight of the 13 Tests.

The veterans will have a key role to play this weekend – although it remains to be seen whether De Allende will go the full 80 or Handré Pollard will slot in at No.12 later in the game.

The Boks have three outstanding flyhalves in the squad, but only one with a track record of winning the big moments.

Manie Libbok and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu offer plenty on attack and, in some respects, more tactical kicking options than Pollard.

But in a game of this magnitude, Pollard’s leadership and execution of a more streamlined game plan will be all-important, as will his goal-kicking. The veteran is yet to miss a kick at goal this season.

Grant Williams should get the nod at scrumhalf, for his accurate tactical kicking rather than his explosive pace.

While the Boks have had problems in other areas, the kick-chase has been one of their strengths – from the accuracy of the box-kicking to the speed and timing of the chase line.

Kolbe has proved particularly potent in this department, snatching the ball out of the air and providing his side with the opportunity to run at an unstructured opposition defence.

BACK ROW

Williams and Pollard will live and die by the performance of their forwards.

If the Bok heavies boss the gainline and set-piece exchanges, Williams will have more space and time with which to operate.

If fit, Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit should start on the flanks.

There may be a temptation to unleash Kolisi at No.8 – and favour two specialist breakdown exponents at No.8 and openside flank.

However, this selection may compromise the balance of the team in other areas such as the line-out.

The Boks may want an extra line-out jumper in Jean-Luc du Preez – as well as a strong carrying option on the kick return and in general play.

TIGHT FIVE AND BOMB SQUAD

The decline of hooker Bongi Mbonambi has necessitated the starting of Malcom Marx in recent matches, as well as the selection of a different Bomb Squad dynamic.

Mbonambi is currently unavailable due to an illness in the family, and may join the squad at a later date.

If the Sharks player was on tour, the highly successful strategy of Mbonambi to start and Marx to finish may well have been favoured.

As things stand, Erasmus may continue to start Marx, with the versatile Jan-Hendrik Wessels providing cover from the bench.

The injury crisis at loosehead prop may present an opportunity for Boan Venter to play his first game against the All Blacks.

While Erasmus might consider using Marnus van der Merwe as the reserve hooker and Wessels as the back-up loosehead, Venter is the stronger scrummager – and the Boks will need a powerful set-piece exponent on the pitch in the dying stages, whether the All Blacks opt for Tyrel Lomax or Fletcher Newell at tighthead during this period.

Erasmus should look to balance the inexperience on the bench with another seasoned front-ranker. Thomas du Toit may crack the nod ahead of Vincent Koch, with Wilco Louw resuming his partnership with Ox Nché in a destructive scrummaging combination from the outset.

The Bomb Squad formation has been debated at length, with many suggesting that a six-two or a seven-one is the way to go at Eden Park.

Over the past couple of seasons, the Bok coaches have spoken about the need for an extra backline option in a new approach where the physical demands are significantly higher.

With this in mind, a six-two split is a better bet – but will Erasmus favour two locks on the bench, or stack his Bomb Squad with more loose-forward options?

RG Snyman and Franco Mostert would boost the Boks’ set-piece ambitions, and the selection of the double World Cup-winners would also offset the lack of experience in the reserve front-row.

Of course, it’s possible that Erasmus will use Mostert as a loose forward in the second stanza, and leave Eben Etzebeth on the park for the full 80.

Etzebeth offers value across the board and has proved especially important to the kick-chase strategy in recent seasons.

As the line-out general, Lood de Jager will go into this match determined to prove a point.

The All Blacks will ask questions of the Bok line-out, while De Jager and co will work to disrupt the New Zealand feed as much as possible.

Injuries may force Erasmus’ hand during the match, and it’s worth reiterating that Pieter-Steph du Toit and Kolisi both came into this series under an injury cloud.

Kwagga Smith has the ability to cover all three back-row positions, but may end up at openside flank in the latter stages.

Cobus Reinach may be a straight swap for Williams at scrumhalf, unless an injury prompts a backline reshuffle.

Reinach and Williams have both played wing in the past, Moodie covers centre and fullback, and Pollard covers No.12.

Feinberg-Mngomezulu slotted in at fullback when coming off the bench in the second Test against the Wallabies.

This weekend, it will be interesting to see whether Erasmus uses Feinberg-Mngomezulu at flyhalf or fullback in the latter stages.

If the Boks are on top, Feinberg-Mngomezulu may slot in at fullback to give the Boks more tactical kicking options.

If they are forced to chase the game and play more expansively, the utility back may move to No.10 and Pollard to No.12.

The Bok team to play the All Blacks on Saturday will be officially announced on Thursday at 08.00 (SA time).

JON CARDINELLI’S BOK TEAM FOR EDEN PARK:

STARTING XV:
15 Aphelele Fassi
14 Canan Moodie
13 Jesse Kriel
12 Damian de Allende
11 Cheslin Kolbe
10 Handré Pollard
9 Grant Williams
8 Jean-Luc du Preez
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit
6 Siya Kolisi (captain)
5 Lood de Jager
4 Eben Etzebeth
3 Wilco Louw
2 Malcolm Marx
1 Ox Nché

BOMB SQUAD:
16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels
17 Boan Venter
18 Thomas du Toit
19 RG Snyman
20 Franco Mostert
21 Kwagga Smith
22 Cobus Reinach
23 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu