The Springboks that must soar in Cardiff

OPINION: The balance of the Springbok selections points to a big victory against Wales this Saturday as well as another win for Rassie Erasmus’ development plan.

Erasmus will be pleased by how the tour to the Northern Hemisphere has panned out.

The decision to field a largely second-string combination against Scotland yielded a 32-17 victory, and ensured that the first-choice players remained fresh for the all-important fixture against England six days later.

Erasmus picked his best available players for the showdown at Twickenham, and the Boks went on to win 29-20.

While the Boks weren’t at their best, they scored four tries in each fixture, while conceding zero in Edinburgh and two in London.

There are aspects of South Africa’s game that require fine-tuning – the line-out, maul, and overall discipline.

However, by and large, they have ticked most of the boxes over the first two games of the three-match tour, and are well placed to finish with a flourish.

A tour-ending fixture in Cardiff has proved something of a banana peel for past Bok teams.

Heyneke Meyer’s side lost to Wales in 2014, while Allister Coetzee’s charges went down in 2016 and 2017 – the latter defeat bringing an end to Coetzee’s tenure.

Erasmus’ first season in charge in 2018 also ended on a losing note, after the Boks stumbled in Cardiff.

Fatigue has been cited as a reason for past defeats.

The fact that this fixture has often been staged outside of the international window – and precluded the selection of overseas-based Boks – has also proved problematic.

In 2024, however, the Boks will have no excuse for losing their final game of the season.

In fact, it would be something of an upset if they didn’t win this Saturday by at least 15 points, given the dire state of the Welsh game at present.

Erasmus and his lieutenants have prepared well this season, and the decision to rotate the squad regularly has helped rather than hindered their quest for results.

The team that travels to the Millennium Stadium this Saturday will be relatively fresh, given that Erasmus has managed his players carefully throughout the three-match tour.

After claiming two convincing victories against Scotland and England, Erasmus can push through with his plans to field a few experimental combinations and give Cameron Hanekom his first Test cap.

The 22-year-old has made a big impact at No.8 for the Bulls in recent seasons, but it remains to be seen where he will be deployed at international level.

Erasmus has highlighted the player’s versatility, which will certainly be an asset in a World Cup squad context, and in the early stages of his career while he is playing behind the likes of Jasper Wiese, Kwagga Smith and Evan Roos.

Elrigh Louw has been one of the Boks’ top performers in 2024, and while he will start at No.7 this week, he is, on form, the second-best No.8 available to the side. At 25, Louw is not much older than Hanekom, although he’s been in the wider Bok squad since 2022.

Injuries may force Erasmus’ hand on Saturday, with Hanekom coming off the bench to replace Siya Kolisi, Louw or Wiese if necessary.

Ideally, the Bok coach would prefer to make a tactical switch late in the game, and maximise the youngster’s explosive ball-carrying talents.

At the team announcement in Cardiff on Tuesday, Erasmus said that Hanekom had the ability to cover all three loose-forward positions, but would in all likelihood play blindside or No.8 in Cardiff.

The Boks are set to use Hanekom as a line-out option, possibly as part of a strategy to attack a tired and limited Welsh set piece in the second stanza.

Erasmus has called for the media and public to respect Wales, in spite of the fact that the Dragons have lost their last 11 Tests.

He is right in the sense that the Boks will have to work for a big win this Saturday, just as Australia toiled for their 52-20 victory in Cardiff last week.

The scoreline may suggest otherwise, but the Wallabies didn’t have everything their own way and competed with 14 men for 20 minutes after Samu Kerevi was shown a red card.

Squad rotation has kept the Bok players relatively fresh ahead of this third and final tour fixture and has left some in the group with something to prove.

Jordan Hendrikse will start for the second time and will be desperate to make the chance count.

If anything, the flyhalf tried too hard in his debut against Wales at Twickenham earlier this season, and that attitude led to several mistakes.

Since then, he has won a Currie Cup for the Sharks, and produced a series of polished performances in the United Rugby Championship – at flyhalf and fullback.

Hendrikse has the potential to make an individual impact in Cardiff.

Erasmus and attack coach Tony Brown, however, will judge the youngster by his ability to put others into space.

The Boks’ synergy and potency will be determined by how Hendrikse manages the team on the field, and how he gels with his brother Jaden as well as the Bok centres.

Erasmus’ other selections, of course, will boost the flyhalf’s chances of success.

First-choice forwards such as Wiese, Kolisi, Franco Mostert and Ox Nché have been selected to start and will work to create a platform for South Africa’s talented back division.

Thomas du Toit and Johan Grobbelaar will be determined to show why they deserve more opportunities in the coming seasons.

Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel, South Africa’s most experienced midfield combination of all-time, will provide Hendrikse with the necessary support, just as Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse have assisted Aphelele Fassi throughout a stellar season for the fullback.

Expect the forwards to take the fight to Wales from the outset, and for Hendrikse and company to benefit from that platform.

If all goes to plan, the Boks should be well in control of the game by the time the Bomb Squad is deployed in the second stanza.

The front row combination of Gerhard Steenekamp, Malcolm Marx and Vincent Koch has been one of the Boks’ most effective this season.

Vastly experienced players such as Eben Etzebeth, RG Snyman, Cobus Reinach and Handré Pollard will be tasked with lifting the intensity and providing direction in the second half.

Those players may well ensure that the Boks maintain their focus in the latter stages, and go on to claim a substantial win.

@rugby365com