The World Cup numbers pseudo-pundits ignore
South Africa is an ageing team that will soon ‘plunge’ down the world rankings.
That is what some pseudo-pundits will have you believe, those haters who set upon the Springboks with their virulent and vitriolic verbalisations.
They will point to the 30-plus club like Eben Etzebeth (34 years of age), captain Siya Kolisi, Damian de Allende, Franco Mostert and Bongi Mbonambi (also all 34).
They will all be 36 at the 2027 World Cup in Australia, where the Boks will attempt to become the first team to record a hat-trick (three consecutive) Webb Ellis Cup victories.
Then there are Pieter-Steph du Toit (33), Cheslin Kolbe, Kwagga Smith (both 32) and Thomas du Toit (30).
Now throw in several 31-year-olds, and they have what they believe to be validation of their argument.
However, they premeditatedly ignore certain key facts, or numbers, if you will have it.
(Continue below ….)
Let us take a step back in time to where it all started in 1987.
Since the inception of the World Cup, winning teams have generally had an average squad age of between 28 and 31, while a substantial number of players had extensive international experience – some even exceeding 100 caps.
However, World Cup-winning squads also had a balance of seasoned veterans, including those aged 30 and older, with younger players in their prime years (27 to 29)
At the 2023 World Cup, South Africa fielded one of the oldest squads in the tournament’s history, with an average age slightly over 30.
The total Test caps for the 33-man Bok squad named was 1,323. The average caps per player were plus-minus 40.
The most experienced player was Eben Etzebeth (112 caps at the time), with other senior statesmen like Willie le Roux, Siya Kolisi, Duane Vermeulen and Damian de Allende. There were also 12 debutants in the squad.
The 2019 Springbok World Cup squad had a combined 1,030 Test caps.
The 50+ caps class included Etzebeth, Le Roux, Francois Louw, Frans Steyn and Tendai Mtawarira (the latter the most experienced with 110 caps at the time). There were only seven players with fewer than 10 caps.
Now, let us look at World Cup-winning teams down the years.
2023: South Africa – 30 years of age on average, with 1,323 Test caps.
2019: South Africa – 28, 1,030
2015: New Zealand – 28, 1,484
2011: New Zealand – 27.5, 1,133
2007: South Africa – 27, 826
2003: England – 28, 638
The total caps for the starting XV of the last four World Cup Final-winning teams:
2023: South Africa 987 (entire squad, including bench)
2019: South Africa 987 (record-breaking for Springboks)
2015: New Zealand 903
2011: New Zealand 565
The average age for the last four World Cup winners:
2023: South Africa 30
2019: South Africa 28
2015: New Zealand 28
2011: New Zealand 28
Experience is key, with the winning teams consistently featuring players with significant international caps and years of experience.
There is a balance of youth and experience, but it is common for winning teams to have multiple players with 100+ caps, especially in their forward pack or among their senior backs.
Now, let us look at the current Springboks again.
The Bok team for the encounter with Ireland in Dublin last Saturday had 876 caps in the starting line-up, with a nice balance of youth and experienced players.
The squad featured a mix of very experienced players, such as Eben Etzebeth and Siya Kolisi, and newer talents like Canan Moodie and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu.
Here is the Bok starting XV, with age and caps (Ireland Test included):
15 Damian Willemse – 27, 48
14 Canan Moodie – 22, 21
13 Jesse Kriel – 31, 87
12 Damian de Allende – 34, 96
11 Cheslin Kolbe – 32, 49
10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu – 23, 18
9 Cobus Reinach – 35, 49
8 Jasper Wiese – 30, 42
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit – 33, 95
6 Siya Kolisi (captain) – 34, 102
5 Ruan Nortje – 27, 17
4 Eben Etzebeth – 34, 140
3 Thomas du Toit – 30, 32
2 Malcolm Marx – 31, 87
1 Boan Venter – 27, 8
Replacements
16 Johan Grobbelaar – 27, 7
17 Gerhard Steenekamp – 28, 15
18 Wilco Louw – 31, 28
19 RG Snyman – 30, 50
20 Kwagga Smith – 32, 62
21 Andre Esterhuizen – 31, 28
22 Grant Williams – 29, 28
23 Manie Libbok – 28, 28
Then are these players waiting in the wings …
Handré Pollard – 31, 85
Ox Nche – 30, 47
Lood de Jager – 32, 73
Franco Mostert – 34, 83
Jean Kleyn – 32, 8
Jan-Hendrik Wessels – 24, 9
Marnus van der Merwe – 28, 3
Zachary Porthen – 21, 2
Asenathi Ntlabakanye – 26, 2
Ben-Jason Dixon – 27, 6
Marco van Staden – 30, 31
Morné van den Berg – 28, 5
Faf de Klerk – 33, 60
Kurt-Lee Arendse – 29, 30
Ethan Hooker – 22, 7
Edwill van der Merwe – 29, 5
Aphelele Fassi – 27, 15
Willie le Roux – 35, 101
Neethling Fouché – 32, 1
Salmaan Moerat – 27, 11
Vincent Tshituka – 27, 1
Does that look like an ageing team with no new blood coming through?
Ignore the facts at your own peril!
@rugby365com
