Wales v South Africa - Teams and Prediction

PREVIEW: The final match of the Nations Series promises a thunderous climax as Wales welcome the reigning world and Rugby Championship champions, South Africa, to Cardiff.

It’s a true clash of rugby identities: Wales’ traditional flair and indefatigable spirit against the Springboks’ trademark physical dominance and relentless tactical precision.

For South Africa, it’s an opportunity to cap a remarkable year – one in which coach Rassie Erasmus has continued to refine a winning formula while blooding new talent to ensure the Springboks’ engine never idles.

Their resilience has been a defining feature of 2025, having beaten France and Italy despite playing long periods with 14 men, before grinding down Ireland in Dublin last weekend.

Now the Springboks arrive in Cardiff seeking to seal what may be their most commanding calendar year ever. They have lost just twice in 2025, and even those defeats came in a Rugby Championship campaign where they also claimed victories over all three opponents – including a 43-10 demolition of New Zealand in Wellington and consecutive wins over Argentina.

Key numbers underline their dominance:

• South Africa have won 19 of their last 20 Tests in the Northern Hemisphere – including 13 straight since the 2023 World Cup.
• They are the only Tier One nation averaging more than five tries per game in 2025 (5.4), while conceding the fewest (2.2).
• Wales have scored 3+ tries in five consecutive Tests – matching their total from the previous 15 combined.
• But Wales have also lost eight straight against Rugby Championship opponents, conceding 40+ points in each of the last four (and over 50 in the last two).
• The Springboks need one more win to secure their second-best calendar year ever, surpassing the benchmarks set in 1998 and 2024.

Erasmus reflected on the long season and the significance of finishing strongly.

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“The coaches have been together planning since May, and the team has been together since June 3. This is our 15th match, so it’s been a long season. The players can’t really switch off—they go straight into URC or Premiership. So ending the year on a high will be great.

“I looked at the World Rugby permutations, and even if we lose by 15 points, we stay number one in the world. That was our aim for the year as we built squad depth.

“Krappie [Morné van den Berg] gets his chance, Franco [Mostert] gets his chance after almost being suspended, and Jean Kleyn – who’s given up a lot – has only played twice for us since the World Cup final.

“Grobbies [Johan Grobbelaar] has seven caps, Zachary Porthen two, Asenathi Ntlabakanye two, Ben-Jason Dixon two.

“We know the Welsh psyche – they’ve smashed us many times when we didn’t expect it. So while it’s a long season, there’ll be no underestimating them.”

Wales, meanwhile, are navigating complications of their own as their Nations Series concludes with a match staged outside World Rugby’s official Test window. With English and French-based players unavailable, they have been forced to select exclusively from Cardiff, the Dragons, Ospreys, and Scarlets – all of whom resume URC duty this weekend.

The fixture, agreed back in 2018, provides crucial revenue for the Welsh Rugby Union but has left head coach Mike Tandy with a stretched, inexperienced squad and regional coaches facing significant selection headaches.

Tandy admitted the situation is imperfect, but remains optimistic: “It’s far from perfect, and I know how tough it is. I’m empathetic, but sometimes you can find a diamond.

“It’s tough, but the regional coaches are supportive of what we’re trying to do, and we’re trying to support them. It isn’t perfect, but we can’t change it. We just have to make the best of the situation.”

Players to watch:

For Wales: Kieran Hardy and Dan Edwards both play for the Ospreys, while the centre pairing of Joe Hawkins and Joe Roberts are from the Scarlets. Two members of the back-three in Blair Murray and Ellis Mee also play for the Scarlets, which means they will know each other’s games inside out. The return of Wainwright triggers further adjustments in the back row: Alex Mann switches to openside flanker at the expense of Harri Deaves, while Taine Plumtree shifts to blindside. Captain Dewi Lake at hooker and his props Gareth Thomas and Keiron Assiratti will have a proper Test on their hands.

For South Africa: This is another opportunity for players like Morne van den Berg, Ethan Hooker, Ben-Jason Dixon and Johan Grobbelaar to show they belong in a starting XV for the Springboks. The rest are very experienced and have been there and done that. They need no introduction and will be up for whatever the Welsh throw their way.

Prediction:

Rugby365: South Africa by 25 points

Teams:

Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Alex Mann, 6 Taine Plumtree, 5 Rhys Davies, 4 Ben Carter, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Danny Southworth, 18 Christian Coleman, 19 James Ratti, 20 Morgan Morse, 21 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22 Callum Sheedy, 23 Ben Thomas.

South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Damian de Allende, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Canan Moodie, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Zachary Porthen, 18 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Ben-Jason Dixon, 22 Kwagga Smith, 23 Cobus Reinach.

Date: Saturday, November 29
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 15.10 (17.10 SA time, 15.10 GMT)
Expected weather: The roof will be closed.
Referee: Luc Ramos (France)
Assistant referees: Matthew Carley (England) and Pierre Brousset (France)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (France)