Another all-South African URC Final on the cards?

OPINION: It’s a long shot, but we could see two South African teams contesting the United Rugby Championship Final once more.

The Stormers and Bulls contested the inaugural Final in 2022 following the rebranding of the Pro 14 to the URC, which the Capetonians won by 18-13 at the DHL Stadium.

Since then, a South African side contested the Final every season, although falling short in each, with Munster upsetting the Stormers in 2023, Glasgow doing the same against the Bulls in 2024, and Leinster sweeping the floor with the Bulls last season.

There’s been three instances where South African franchises knocked each other out in the play-offs. The Bulls defeated the Sharks in a quarterfinal and semifinal across two seasons, respectively, whilst the Stormers defeated the Bulls in the 2023 quarterfinal.

Looking ahead at a few key fixtures for these teams, and depending on the outcome of the overseas team’s results, there is a strong possibility that South African sides could avoid each other until the Final.

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As seen in the table above, the Stormers (first), Lions (third) and Bulls (seventh) are well on course to finish within the top six, with the Bulls having an easier run-in at home following their last two overseas victories.

The Bulls should easily secure 10 log points from their upcoming games against Zebre and Benetton to end on 59 points.

The Lions and Stormers have a trickier path.

Both teams travel overseas, with the Lions facing powerhouses Munster and Leinster, which will be a tough ask, and I personally don’t expect them to win either of those matches.

If the Lions could secure three bonus points (four tries and losing one game by fewer than seven points), it would take them to 56 points.

The Stormers showed this season that they can win overseas, unlike previous years.

Ideally, they would like to win both games, but realistically, they’ll target the clash against Cardiff in the final round and gun for two log points against Ulster, who look like a team regaining their form at the right time.

That would take the Stormers up to 62 points (or possibly 63 should they score four tries against Cardiff) and keep them in contention to finish in the top four, but there is still the Glasgow Warriors and Leinster factor.

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Franco Smith’s Warriors left South Africa empty-handed but have an opportunity to collect maximum points against Cardiff, although they could slip up against Ulster, which will bode well for the Stormers.

Leinster should defeat the Lions and Ospreys, which could secure them anything between eight and 10 points, but there’s also the possibility that they would rest some players should they advance to the Champions Cup Final, which could see them drop one game along the line.

There’s also the case of points differential, which could be a deciding factor should teams draw level on log points.

So, for argument’s sake, let’s say the table finishes as follows:

1. Stormers (62 pts)
2. Glasgow Warriors (61 pts)
3. Bulls (59 pts)
4. Leinster (59 pts)
5. Munster (59 pts)
6. Lions (56 pts)
7. Ulster (52 pts)
8. Connacht (49 pts)

Should this be the case, the Stormers will host Connacht in a grudge match in Cape Town, Glasgow takes on Ulster, the Bulls host the Lions, and Leinster will welcome Munster to Dublin.

If the Stormers go through, they will face either Munster or Leinster, whilst the Bulls will meet Glasgow Warriors away from home – a venue they have won at before.

History may repeat itself once more if the Stormers beat either Irish counterpart and the Bulls find their 2022 mojo once more and defeat the Warriors to book an all-South African Final in Cape Town.