Bulls have template to shock Irish favourites

OPINION: South Africa’s most physical team has what it takes to unsettle and exploit a Leinster side that has a tendency to crack under pressure.

It was interesting to read Ireland and Leinster No.8 Jack Conan’s comments in the wake of the United Rugby Championship semifinals this past weekend.

Leinster thrashed Glasgow Warriors 37-19 in Dublin, while the Bulls booked their place in the Croke Park Final after beating the Sharks 25-13 in Pretoria.

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Conan spoke about the threat of the Bulls in the decider, before steering the conversation back to Leinster.

“Hugely [challenging], but it’s never about them, it’s about us and what we want to do,” he said

A leading Irish newspaper highlighted Leinster’s ‘siege mentality’ in the buildup to the battle with Glasgow, who won the URC last season.

The pressure is mounting on Leinster to end a four-year title drought – and as Conan himself has subsequently stated, the Glasgow result will count for nothing if Leinster fail to back it up this Saturday.

Leinster have a record of falling at the Final hurdle, of course, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to suggest that this is a national problem.

Ireland started the 2023 World Cup as title favourites, but were knocked out by New Zealand in the first round of the play-offs.

More recently, they were hammered 27-42 by France in the decisive Six Nations clash in Dublin.

Leinster haven’t won the Champions Cup since 2018, and much has been said and written about their losses in the 2023 and 2024 finals, as well as their most recent semifinal defeat to the Northampton Saints.

While they won the Final edition of the Pro 14 in 2021, Leinster have underachieved in the URC era, losing three consecutive semifinals after dominating the league phase.

Perhaps the time is right for Leinster to end their trophy drought.

They finished at the top of the URC standings this season, and after beating the Scarlets and Glasgow, earned the right to host the Final for the first time.

Then again, many of the Leinster players have a record of capitulating on the big stage, and the club has sustained significant losses to the Bulls – twice in a URC semi-final, and more recently in a tense league fixture staged at Loftus Versfeld.

With the above in mind, it’s easy to forget what’s at stake for the Bulls.

In some ways, they are South Africa’s answer to Leinster.

They’ve lost two URC finals in the space of three years, and also lost the 2024 Currie Cup semifinal staged in Pretoria.

But there is reason to believe that Jake White’s side has turned a corner, and that a victory in Dublin this Saturday is possible.

The Bulls have beaten Leinster in Dublin before, but it’s the more recent successes in Limerick and Glasgow that provide evidence of their form and ability to secure big scalps away from home.

In the days of Super Rugby, travelling teams rarely won finals staged overseas, but Munster achieved the feat by winning in Cape Town in 2023 while Glasgow went one better by prevailing at altitude in 2024.

Those results certainly don’t negate the challenge of travelling abroad for a Final or the advantage enjoyed by the local side, but they certainly show that an away win is achievable.

If Munster and Glasgow can do it, why not the Bulls?

The Bulls could become the first South African team in history to win a Final staged overseas.

That should motivate the players in the lead-up to the decider at Croke Park.

South African fans and stakeholders will hope for a Bulls victory, but they will not demand or expect it.

Knowing that, the Bulls will have more freedom to play to their strengths and exploit Leinster’s weaknesses.

The Bulls scrum troubled Leinster in the recent league match, and earned the hosts a penalty in injury time. David Kriel proceeded to slot a three-pointer to give his side a 21-20 victory.

Wilco Louw and company made a further statement last week when they destroyed a Sharks scrum featuring World Cup-winners of the quality of Ox Nché, Bongi Mbonambi and Vincent Koch.

If the Bulls get the upper hand in this department on Saturday – and successfully target loosehead Andrew Porter – they could take control of the contest.

A clash of styles is expected, with Leinster employing a high-tempo attack and the Bulls looking to play from set piece to set piece.

While the gainline and breakdown battles will be crucial, so too will the kicking duel. No team kicks more from hand than Leinster (ranked first) and the Bulls (second).

If the Bulls succeed in negating the Leinster pack, they will limit scrumhalf Jamison Gibson-Park and force young flyhalf Sam Prendergast deeper and deeper into the pocket.

This Bulls team, of course, has its flaws.

They tend to drift in and out of matches, and their discipline can be a problem.

This was evident in the recent semi-final, where they started well, before conceding three yellow cards.

They eventually won by 12 points, but a poor display before and after half-time should serve as a timely wake-up call before the decider.

The Bulls can’t allow Leinster to get off to a flyer this weekend.

They have to take the fight to the Irish side from the outset, and ensure that they are within striking distance on the scoreboard at half-time.

If that scenario play out, old doubts may begin to resurface among the Leinster ranks.

The opportunity will be there to finish Leinster off – and it’s here where senior Bulls like Ruan Nortje, Marcell Coetzee, Embrose Papier and Willie le Roux will need to stand tall.

The stage is set for an intriguing URC final.

Either Leinster are going to change the narrative by claiming a long-awaited victory, or the Bulls are going to make history, and end a title drought of their own.

@rugby365com