Lions must make own luck against Irish trio

OPINION: Squad management will be key when the Lions face Connacht, Leinster and Munster in a tricky set of fixtures over the next four weeks.

It’s that time of the season when coaches and players start to reflect on missed opportunities and “what if” scenarios.

What if they’d won another game or two during the initial rounds of the United Rugby Championship?

What if they’d claimed one or two more bonus points over the course of the campaign?

Would the Sharks sit in 11th place if they’d won even one of their first four games instead of slumping to three losses and a draw?

Would they be on the verge of exiting the URC before the play-off stage, and missing out on next season’s Champions Cup altogether?

These are worthwhile questions that hold lessons for all teams hoping to climb the URC and Champions Cup ladders in the coming months.

As the current URC log suggests, one win could mean the difference between hosting a quarterfinal or travelling overseas for the play-offs.

It could also mean the difference between qualifying for the URC knockout phase and earning a spot in the 2026/27 Champions Cup tournament.

Connacht, for example, are in ninth place, but only four log points behind the Lions in fifth.

As Connacht coach Stuart Lancaster suggested after the club’s historic win against the Stormers this past Saturday, the margins are a lot smaller at this stage of the season, while the stakes are a lot higher.

Consider what Champions Cup qualification could do for a team like Connacht or the Lions, in terms of commercial opportunities and long-term growth.

Both are fighting for respect within their respective countries, after playing the part of the “fourth team” for far too long.

Qualifying for the URC play-offs is an important first step, but both sets of coaches will know what the Champions Cup could do for their clubs’ long-term development.

And as fate would have it, Connacht and the Lions will collide in Johannesburg this Saturday.

Connacht need to win this match to keep their play-off hopes alive.

While the Lions are better placed at this stage, log points may be difficult to come by when they finish their league campaign against Leinster and Munster in Ireland.

The result at Ellis Park this Saturday will shape the short- and long-term destiny of both clubs.

Both are coming off impressive wins.

Connacht showed their character and class against the Stormers in Cape Town, and went in to secure a 33-24 victory against all odds.

The Lions were full value for their 54-12 win against the Glasgow Warriors – who currently lead the log.

Both appear to be in the right headspace.

Indeed, it was interesting to gauge Lions coach Cash van Rooyen’s reaction in the immediate aftermath of that statement win against Glasgow.

Van Rooyen gave the impression that the Lions still have a point to prove, even after winning five games in a row.

This is a very good sign.

Van Rooyen has had a front-row seat to the Lions’ near-misses in the first four instalments of the URC.

Every season, they’ve had a chance to nail down a play-off place, and every season, they’ve run out of gas at the back end of the campaign and finished ninth or lower in the standings.

For four years, they’ve spent the off-season wrestling with the “what if” scenarios.

This season may be different, though, and it’s clear that Van Rooyen and his charges have learned from their past mistakes and aren’t going to celebrate until they are over the line.

The Lions deserve high praise for their recent form, and while the Stormers are better placed at this stage (second in the standings), Van Rooyen’s team is playing the best brand of rugby – a statement that is substantiated by the stats as well as the results.

That said, Van Rooyen and company won’t have forgotten about their recent visits to Europe.

The Lions lost all three tour matches at the start of the URC season and failed to win any of their away games in the Challenge Cup pool phase.

Their best result overseas was a 24-24 draw against the Ospreys in January.

They will have noted how the Sharks struggled to put the Ospreys away in the recent fixture in Bridgend.

The Sharks bossed the scrum battle, but struggled to receive sufficient reward for their dominance.

Many of the 50/50 calls went against the tourists, while the officials ignored a few incidents of blatant foul play.

Ospreys winger Luke Morgan dived on Ethan Hooker after the Sharks and Bok utility back scored a try at the end of the first half.

Hooker left the field with what was later confirmed as a dislocated shoulder, but no action was taken against the Ospreys or Morgan for the blatant cheap shot.

The Ospreys went on to win 21-17.

The Sharks have reason to feel aggrieved, and there should be consequences for the offending player as well as the officials who failed in their duty to punish foul play.

Looking at the bigger picture and how a number of big calls have gone against the South African teams in recent overseas fixtures, the Lions should know what to expect in the coming weeks.

They will have to make their own luck in order to get the desired results.

Regardless of their Champions Cup final status, Leinster will be tough to beat in Dublin in early May.

The clash against Munster (currently sixth in the standings) should be particularly spicy, given the stakes for both teams involved.

It will be interesting to see how the Lions juggle their resources in the next block of fixtures, knowing what lies in wait.

They will have a break before the tour to Ireland, but may well decide to rotate some of their players over the course of the games against Leinster and Munster.

If they can come away from that tour with even one victory, it will be viewed as a success.

Right now, they should throw all of their energy into the next fixture against Connacht, who have shown time and again that they’re not to be underestimated, despite the perception that they’re Ireland’s fourth team behind Leinster, Munster and Ulster.

The Lions will understand the Connacht mindset better than most – having languished behind the Bulls, Sharks and Stormers in past seasons.

It’s for this reason that the Lions should head into the next clash without the complacency that has characterised – and cost – Connacht’s recent victims.

Whisper it, but if Van Rooyen’s charges maintain their momentum, this Lions story may have a new and ultimately happier ending.