The stats are out and it's not looking good for Scotland star
OPINION: It was agony for Scotland fans when Finn Russell’s final kick against England in the Six Nations last Saturday curved wide off the left upright to leave a below-par English side still alive in the title race.
In the end, England’s scramble defence and superior kicking off the tee proved the decisive factors, with Russell missing all three of his tricky conversion attempts.
Maybe it can be argued that the flyhalf struggled to prepare for this game following the heavy blow to the head he sustained against Ireland the previous week.
In the end, it all hinged on whether Russell could land the angled conversion following Duhan van der Merwe’s 79th-minute try.
Finn Russell’s wayward form off the tee has cost more points than any other front-line kicker in this year’s Six Nations, according to Opta stats.
Russell, who missed only one of 24 kicks in last season’s tournament, has landed just three from eight in Scotland’s three matches so far this campaign.
Opta predicts a cumulative points return based on where kicks are taken from, a kicker’s previous success rate, and even venue-specific factors such as altitude.
The Opta stats are out and it is not looking good for Russel. He has landed 5.3 fewer points than expected in this edition of the Six Nations.
The expected return from Russell’s three conversion attempts against England on Saturday was 3.7 points.
Instead, he missed all three – including a potential last-minute match-winner – as his side lost 15-16 at Twickenham.
Russell’s final kick following Duhan van der Merwe’s try was from a tough angle on the left touchline, but could potentially have been slightly easier.
There also seemed to be a discrepancy between where Van der Merwe scored the try and the position of the final conversion, with Russell kicking two metres or so closer to the touchline.
Video footage seemed to show referee Pierre Brousset instructing Russell to take the kick closer to the touchline after he initially placed his tee correctly.
Opta’s data suggests that taking the conversion in line with where Van der Merwe touched down, rather than the wider angle, would have raised Russell’s chance of success from 55% to 58%.
His other misses came in the fifth and 20th minutes, both on the left-hand side of the field, with his second attempt in almost the same position as his final kick.
Italy’s Tommaso Allan, who has scored 3.5 points more than expected, has over-performed by the greatest degree off the tee, with England’s Fin Smith, who landed both a match-winning conversion against France and a 47m long-range effort against Scotland among his three kicks, also well in credit.
Blair Kinghorn is statistically Scotland’s best kicker, landing three out of four attempts against Ireland in Round Two after Russell was taken off injured.
Former England fullback and kicking coach Jon Callard, who worked with Russell for around nine months at Bath, says Russell relies purely on instinct, writes RugbyPass’ Jon Newcombe.
“It wouldn’t surprise me next game up if Finn kicks 10 out of 10 or whatever it is.
“I got to know very, very quickly Finn is not interested in technical development. He does things in his way. He doesn’t worry about drills, or compartmentalising the kicking technique to try and improve an aspect of it. He’s purely a feel player; he knows when he is feeling good and when he’s not feeling good.”
Source @Opta
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