The myth of 'flowing rugby'

rugby365.com columnist Anton van der Merwe puts stoppages are under the magnifying glass in the latest contribution of his Statistically Speaking series.

In the 12 rounds of the Super 14 we have seen almost 5,500 stoppages in total. If that sounds like a lot, it is. To be precise, the average Super 14 rugby fan blinked at least 5,482 times (the number of stoppages) watching the tournament. That is an average of 71.3 stoppages per game.

Keep in mind that stoppages are not available per team – only per game. Nevertheless, the stats clearly show some trends.

This column takes a look at these trends by team nationality and debunks some of the common myths around flowing rugby and the number of tries scored. It also compares the standing of teams on the log with stoppages and ask whether there is a correlation. Finally we look at stoppages by referee and identify the most pedantic refs and the ones that allow the game to flow.

The Myth of Flowing Rugby and Tries

The first graph shows the average number of stoppages in games when slicing the data by team nationality.  

Games where at least one New Zealand team is involved average the lowest number of stoppages per game. On the other end of the scale Australian teams top the list with 73.8 stoppages. Given the higher stoppage averages for games involving South African and Australian teams the stoppages between two New Zealand teams should be even lower. That number comes in at a low 66.3.

Now the test to see how conditioned rugby365.com readers are to the run of the mill propaganda: Less stoppages mean more tries, correct? Well not really, the data tells another story.

When New Zealand teams play each other and apparently showcase the most flowing/exciting version of the game they score an average of 2.7 tries per game. However, when South African teams play New Zealand teams there are 71.2 stoppages per game but the South African teams score 3.4 tries per game! That is 23 percent more tries!

This inverse trend between the number of stoppages and tries is also evident when New Zealand teams play Australian teams and when Australian teams play South African teams.

So the myth that multi-phased play leads to more tries is thoroughly busted. Contrary, to the refrain we often hear about flowing rugby and tries it is clear that tries are also scored from set pieces. Moreover, what is more slick than a well engineered set piece try?

Stoppages by Log Position

The next graphs ranks teams by stoppages, from the least (the Bulls with 64.6) to the most (the Brumbies with 78.5).

While there are some correlation in standings on the log vs stoppages, the Bulls comes out tops on both, there are also teams that defy that logic. Most noticeable among these are the Waratahs, the Stormers and the Brumbies.

Moreover, this graph has more pointers that debunk the flowing rugby and more tries myth. The Sharks are in the middle of the pack when it comes to stoppages but dead last by some margin when it comes to scoring tries (only 16 tries in 11 games or 1.45 tries per game). The Waratahs (among the worst on the stoppages ranking) scores 3.1 tries per match, which equals the best New Zealand team.

The game with the most stoppages (114) was between the Brumbies and the Lions, which one could have expected based on the data. However, the game with the least number of stoppages so far was the one between the Bulls and the Brumbies (55), which seems to defy the stats. Could this indicate that the Brumbies play the opponents game plan/pattern, they cannot or do not enforce their own?

The Pedantic Referees and The Ones that Temper Their Whistle…

Finally, we take a look at one of the biggest factors in the stop-start nature of a game, the referee. The first graph reveals the most pedantic of the referees or shall we say the control freaks…

Identifying the least pedantic of referees is a statistically risky venture because three of the four refs with the lowest stoppage stats have all refereed only one or two games and have also been stood down for various reasons. These are Johnathan White (64.5), Paul Marks (67.0) and Pro Legoete (69.0). If one looks at referees that have refereed four or more games the least pedantic ones are as follows:

Between Mark Lawrence and Stuart Dickinson, for referees in charge of four or more games, there is a whopping 20 percent difference in stoppages, which raises the question of consistency. The graph below looks at the consistency between each country’s referees. Consistency (or lack there of) is reflected by the percentage spread between the referee with the lowest average and the one with the highest average for each country.

These differences are quite frankly atrocious. Some of the earlier Statistically Speaking columns already highlighted this issue with inconsistency amongst referees in other areas of the game. From stats like these it seems the best thing that could be done for rugby in the southern hemisphere is getting refs to be consistent?