Who will hit the top and who will flop?
The potential of all four South African franchises making the United Rugby Championship play-offs for the first time is an authentic reality.
However, there is also the potential that only two teams can make it.
It is going to be a mad dash, with many complicated twists and turns.
It starts with the table-topping Glasgow Warriors visiting South Africa for back-to-back encounters with their closest South African rivals.
Facing the fifth-placed Lions on the Highveld and the second-placed Stormers, coming off two brutal Champions Cup encounters with Toulon (a 19-22 quarterfinal loss) and the Bulls (a 25-21 Round of 16 win), will leave the Scottish outfit vulnerable.
The question is, do they make the same mistake as Edinburgh earlier in the season (sending fringe players in to face the Lions and Ellis Park and targeting the Stormers at sea level in Cape Town)?
Do they, in fact, have enough dept to cover both their already significant injury list and the demands of a taxing trip to the Republic?
Without their scrumhalves George Horne and Jamie Dobie and with four Scotland locks unavailable through injury, Glasgow were stretched in key areas in recent weeks.
Warriors were further depleted for the South Africa trip when lock Max Williamson suffered an MCL knee injury, which forced his withdrawal from the match-day squad against Toulon. With Alex Craig out until next season with a foot injury and Scott Cummings and Gregor Brown also currently unavailable, Glasgow only had hybrid ‘lock’ Euan Ferrie to deploy from the bench against Toulon, with Alex Samuel and Jare Oguntibeju their only fit specialist locks.
They will also travel to South Africa without Scotland flank Rory Darge, while flyhalf Adam Hastings was forced off against Toulon after taking a heavy blow to the jaw.
It is realistic that the Warriors, as they did last year, could suffer losses in the final run-in, which saw them slip out of the top two.
It will open the door for the Stormers, four points behind in second place, to sneak into the top spot.
Glasgow does have a decent record in South Africa, but the roster is beginning to look rather thin, especially for two matches where the depth on the bench will be key.
The Cape Town-based franchise does have a challenging home stretch – facing Connacht and the Warriors in home matches, before a road that will see them finish against Ulster and Cardiff.
However, with first place on the line, they showed in a one-point loss to Toulon (Round of 16) that they can mix it with the best.
Connacht may well be a tougher challenge than Glasgow.
The Lions, within reach of reaching the play-offs for the first time, could even secure home ground advantage in the quarterfinals.
They could soften up Glasgow for the Stormers, who could do them a favour by working over Connacht this week.
The Lions’ real challenge will come when they hit the road for the last two rounds, facing Leinster and Munster (both away).
Injuries could also play a significant role, with the Lions’ roster not having much in terms of depth below the frontline selections.
The Bulls, currently in eighth place, have the least demanding run-in of the four SA franchises.
They face the Dragons and Scarlets (away), followed by home games against Zebre and Benetton.
It is a tall order, but getting 20 points from those four games could see the Bulls sneak into the top four.
The Sharks, in 10th place, do have a chance to sneak into the play-offs and book their place at next season’s top table, the Champions Cup.
They face Osprey and Edinburgh in away matches, before returning home to host Benetton and Zebre.
Four wins are not out of the question, but they will need some of their high-profile Springboks to add some depth to a green-looking roster.
Glancing into my crystal ball, I feel this could be the final positions (before the play-offs) of the four South African teams: Stormers (second), Bulls (fourth), Lions (eighth) and Sharks (ninth).
Plenty can and will happen in the next month, so strap yourself in.
It is going to be a wild ride!
@JanDKrugby
@rugby365com
