Why Bulls may have edge on Stormers, Lions

OPINION: The Bulls have bolstered their title bid by winning key overseas fixtures, while the Stormers and Lions have blown several opportunities en route to the play-offs.

What’s it going to take for a South African team to win the United Rugby Championship title?

This question was tackled in the wake of the 2024/25 season, after the nation’s leading contenders were hammered by Leinster and Glasgow Warriors in the knockout phase.

As the 2025/26 season approached, the Bulls and Stormers coaches spoke about the need to finish the league phase in the top two in order to mitigate the travel factor in the play-offs.

Fast-forward to the present, where both teams have fallen short of that goal.

Glasgow have finished the regular season as the URC’s leading team, while Leinster have done enough to clinch second place.

Glasgow could host three consecutive play-offs in the northern hemisphere – providing they win their quarterfinal and semifinals.

Leinster could host two on the bounce, and in the event of a Glasgow-Leinster final, they could even meet the Scots in Belfast, as Scotstoun will be unavailable.

The South African contenders have been less consistent over the course of the league phase and face a more challenging road to glory.

The Stormers have finished third and the Bulls fourth, and while both will have the benefit of hosting quarterfinals in South Africa, both look set to travel overseas for the latter stages of the competition – unless Connacht upset Glasgow and the Lions shock Leinster.

Cash van Rooyen’s charges will be buzzing after becoming the first Lions side in history to qualify for the URC play-offs and the Champions Cup.

Whether they can go one better in the coming weeks is another story.

Much can be read into the teams’ league results – and it is here where Stormers’ fans may want to look away.

After winning 10 consecutive matches across both competitions, the Cape franchise won five of their next 13.

The lack of form and momentum going into the play-offs has to be a concern, as well as their recent record overseas.

Again, the contrast between the first part of the Stormers’ campaign and the second is stark.

The Stormers won five-consecutive overseas matches during that 10-game streak – and at that stage, there was every reason to talk them up as top-two contenders.

More recently, they have failed to get over the line.

The Champions Cup play-off defeat in Toulon highlighted a few of the team’s perennial game management shortcomings, as did the draw in Ulster and the recent loss in Cardiff.

The Stormers are still in the hunt for the title, but given their recent form, one would have to say that their hopes hinge on other results going their way.

It may seem harsh to highlight the Lions’ failings, given they’ve just made history by qualifying for the play-offs.

But it’s worth noting that they bowed out of the Challenge Cup before the knockout phase, and failed to win a single overseas match across both competitions (six losses and two draws).

Over the years, the Bulls have been criticised for their limp performances on the road. Their overall overseas record for the 2025/26 season – five wins and four losses – is hardly outstanding.

And yet, it’s important to note how and when their victories have come.

The Stormers and Bulls have enjoyed contrasting runs of form over the past nine months.

When the Stormers claimed their 10th-straight win in early January, the Bulls slumped to their seventh-consecutive loss the following week.

Since that Champions Cup defeat to Bristol, the Bulls have bounced back to win 10 of their next 12 matches.

Johan Ackermann’s men beat Pau in France before downing Edinburgh in the Scottish capital.

Nobody gave them a chance ahead of the Champions Cup play-off against Glasgow, but they gave a good account of themselves in a 21-25 loss at Scotstoun.

Over the course of their 10 from 12 run, the Bulls won four out of five matches overseas.

They played brilliant attacking rugby at times, and reverted to a more pragmatic style when the situation demanded it.

The 23-21 win against the Scarlets has been described by some as an ugly victory, but it was in Llanelli where the Bulls showed their ability to grind out a positive result.

The Stormers, as well as the Bulls, will have their regrets about the league phase.

How different the log may have looked if the Stormers had maintained their early-season form through to the latter stages, or if the Bulls had won one or two more games during the initial rounds.

That said, the mood in the respective camps will be different in the lead-up to the play-offs.

The Stormers will be under pressure to deliver an emphatic result when hosting Cardiff on May 30.

The odds are always going to be against a team that is travelling overseas for a play-off, but Cardiff will take heart from their recent win against the Stormers and the fact that Connacht made history in Cape Town just last month.

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The Bulls have much to polish over the next two weeks, but they look a more settled and balanced side than their next opponents.

Munster have defied the odds before, winning three away play-offs en route to the URC title in 2023, but a trip to the Highveld may prove a bridge too far.

The worst-case scenario from a South African point of view sees all three local contenders bowing out in the first round of the play-offs.

The next-worst scenario – and this seems the most likely – sees the Stormers and Bulls winning their matches, but Glasgow beating Connacht and Leinster taming the Lions.

From there, the Stormers and Bulls will travel to the northern hemisphere, and while an all-South African final will still be possible at that stage, two semifinal upsets seem unlikely.

The best-case scenario sees Connacht – who have won nine of their last 11 games – stunning Glasgow and the Lions beating Leinster.

The latter fixture may be particularly interesting, given that Leinster will be coming off the Champions Cup Final against Bordeaux Bégles – which will be staged in Bilbao this Saturday.

If Leinster win the Champions Cup for the first time since 2018, they will have cause to celebrate in the days that follow, and may not be at their sharpest by the time the URC quarterfinal kicks off.

But if Leinster blow yet another shot at the European title, they will be under pressure to finish the season with silverware – and the Lions could feel the backlash.

It’s plain to see how the South African teams will rely on the performances of other teams to secure home advantage in the URC semifinals and Final.

But if results pan out as expected, the Stormers and Bulls may be forced to take the low road all the way to the decider – and in that scenario, a form team like the Bulls will be best placed to lead the trophy charge.