Leicester 'play-off' will reveal how far Stormers have come

OPINION: The final Champions Cup pool clash against Leicester will be a defining moment in the Stormers’ season.

The Bulls and Sharks can still qualify for the Champions Cup play-offs.

It seems a bizarre statement to make, given how poorly these teams have fared over the first three rounds of the elite club tournament.

The Bulls have lost all three matches – two of those at Loftus Versfeld – while the Sharks have registered all of their log points (five) in their solitary home fixture.

The Bulls (-70) have one of the worst points-differences in the 24-team tournament, while the Sharks (-48) have also struggled to strike the necessary balance between attack and defence.

Neither of these teams is going to win a major trophy this season, but at this stage, both sides remain in the running for the Champions Cup play-offs.

The Bulls need to beat Pau in France this weekend – and deny the hosts any bonus points – and then hope that the Northampton Saints beat the Scarlets.

Those results will ensure that the Pretoria-based franchise finishes fourth in Pool 4 and advances to the next round.

Whether a team deserves to feature in the play-offs after claiming one win from four in the league phase – and let’s face it, after playing a self-destructive brand of rugby – is a point that may be debated in the weeks to come.

The Bulls have conceded 107 points in home fixtures against Bordeaux-Bégles and the Bristol Bears, even with many of their best players in tow.

Whether they beat Pau or not this Friday, they have myriad technical and tactical issues that require urgent attention.

After all the back and forth on social media last week, the Sharks need Sale to do them a favour by beating Toulouse this weekend.

Even if the Sharks down Clermont Auvergne in Durban this Saturday, they may finish in fifth place – unless Sale manage to knock Toulouse out of the tournament.

The latter outcome seems unlikely, given that Sale have already qualified for the play-offs, and that Toulouse are always a more fearsome prospect in France.

How crazy would it be if the Stormers – after winning 10 of their first 11 matches of the season – failed to advance to the next round of the Champions Cup, and one of the afore-mentioned South African teams made the Round of 16 cut?

Yet it remains a possibility.

Following a 10-61 loss to the Harlequins this past Sunday, the Stormers’ overall point-difference (-21) has taken a significant hit.

If they lose to Leicester by eight points or more in Cape Town this weekend, and if La Rochelle beat the Harlequins in France, the Stormers will miss out on the Champions Cup play-offs for the second-consecutive season.

John Dobson will be reluctant to bet on a Harlequins win this weekend, even after witnessing what Marcus Smith and company can do this past weekend.

The Quins, like Sale, have already qualified for the next round, and are under no pressure to produce their best rugby – or field their best combination in La Rochelle.

The opposite is true for the Stormers.

Dobson has planned for this scenario, of course, keeping most of his star players in cotton wool ahead of the fourth and decisive pool clash.

While he would have hoped for a log point or two from the Harlequins fixture, the Leicester game will determine where the Stormers finish the pool phase.

There’s no reason for the Bulls or Sharks to look too far ahead.

After the season they’ve had, they will be desperate to scrape through to the Round of 16, and won’t be worried about potential visits to Bordeaux in France or Leinster in Dublin.

The Stormers should be thinking ahead, though.

They’ve planned and played well, and as a result, they’ve racked up 10 wins in 11 matches.

There’s a lot of talk about Project 2029 – as the younger generation will be in its prime three years down the line – but right now, they have an opportunity to go deep into the Champions Cup, and provide concrete evidence of their progress.

It will be interesting to see how they approach the clash against Leicester in terms of whether they push for four or five log points.

A win will be enough to earn them a place in the top four of Pool 3, and ultimately a ticket to the play-offs.

But if they don’t get a try-scoring bonus point, and other results don’t go their way, they may end up with a less favourable draw in the knockout phase.

Toulouse proved that they can win big matches in South Africa when they knocked over a Springbok-laden Sharks side in Durban last season.

If Antoine Dupont and company qualify for the play-offs and are forced to travel to Cape Town, they will pose a threat – travel fatigue or not.

The Stormers may avoid that match-up if they finish the pool phase with a seeding of seventh or higher.

Looking ahead, they could avoid a potential quarterfinal showdown in Bordeaux, against the reigning champions – who at this stage look set to finish the pool phase with a maximum of 20 log points.

Is it worth pushing for a bonus point this weekend?

The Stormers must avoid the headless-chicken playing style that led to premature exits from the United Rugby Championship and Champions Cup tournaments last season.

The Bulls appear to be favouring that template at the moment, and while it is the source of many a spectacular play, it is – as the numbers confirm – not conducive to consistent results.

To borrow a phrase from cricket, the Stormers need to build an innings this weekend.

They need to manage the game and ensure that they obtain the desired result.

Once the platform has been set, and if the opportunity presents itself in the second stanza, they must push for the bonus-point try and ultimately a better seeding in the play-offs.

This is a big test for the team, given the stakes and the fact that they have plenty to prove after an abject 2024/25 season.

Qualification for the Round of 16 would represent an improvement of last season’s performance, but current form and results suggest they have every reason to aim higher.